Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Terpeast said: I said yesterday that if the models keep showing this look today, we can start to get excited. Well... You did...let's go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Well guys, looks like my shitty pbp is back! I'm going to do my best and give you my worst. 4 2 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Really quite excited to see what the GEFS has to say in a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Lock that in! Near bullseye at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Yessss!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 And it’s not just bullseye snow, it 973 over OC, Maryland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: During the 2016 blizzard, the GFS handled the northern stream energy better than the Euro, Ukmet, and Canadian in the D5 - D7 range. We might be seeing that again. As a whole if you're dealing with some sort of major northern branch difference in the models there has been a tendency the last 5-7 years for the GFS to own the CMC and Euro, especially in the La Nina years. Obviously 15-16 was not but many times the last few winters there has been a northern stream "Argument" amongst the big 3 models at D5-7 and the GFS has seemingly won that argument most of the time due to the La Nina state IMO 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 WB 12Z GFS 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 that was quite the jump west from previous runs......prepare for this thing to jump around 100 miles run to run for a few days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Well guys, looks like my shitty pbp is back! I'm going to do my best and give you my worst. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If the inferior icon and cmc take the lead, well, I just dunno aside from boycotting avocados. What have I done? Lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Well guys, looks like my shitty pbp is back! I'm going to do my best and give you my worst. Hmmm, sh!t just got real with you back in the USA…you aren’t allowed to go anywhere until April! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: You did...let's go Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Yahtzee!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Bullseye run for us. Looks like rain for Philly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Let's check in with model of consistency and consistent bad news: the GGEM And now for the wildly inconsistent on an island GFS 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ...And a (mostly) rain storm for BOS? Not fully buying this solution yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: As a whole if you're dealing with some sort of major northern branch difference in the models there has been a tendency the last 5-7 years for the GFS to own the CMC and Euro, especially in the La Nina years. Obviously 15-16 was not but many times the last few winters there has been a northern stream "Argument" amongst the big 3 models at D5-7 and the GFS has seemingly won that argument most of the time due to the La Nina state IMO Agreed. It does seem that when there is a northern stream dominant event, the newer GFS does seem to latch onto things quicker than the CMC and Euro. I am wondering if it is getting better assimilation of data from North America? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 50kts at 925mb as the storm wraps up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Did we just get HECS’d? Da F*%k!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Sweet mercy! Now see, no matter what, in the weenie subconscious, that run will be the new bar, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yahtzee!! Rockwood Bar and Grill call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: Exactly, that’s all I was pointing out. Interesting that there are such large scale issues regarding this feature at only 84-90 hours out. Was showing the Icon as an example of a model dumping it out west. It’s kinda funny I haven’t even looked at anything past 90 hours yet. I’ve seen enough posts to know it goes on to show a snowstorm but I’m still parsing the 72-90 hour panels and comparing with the euro to try to figure out what’s causing the divergence and see if I can ascertain which progression is more likely. The details “after” are less important since they won’t be correct at that range anyways. But one progression gives us a legit chance at a big snow and the other does not. So figuring that out is all I care about right now. Wish I knew the biases and tendencies of the new GFS. Dumping too much energy into the west is an old school euro bias but I don’t know if that’s true anymore either. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Time for another weenie handbook quote...Back to 1st edition, chaper 1, section 1 2nd paragraph. This is one of our first quotes..."When models are diverging at 5-7 days we say 'The energy in the PAC or NW Teritories is not being sampled properly due to sparse data'". We also hug the piss out of the snowiest and most threatening model. Go GFS LFG! 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 H5 was glorious at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 January 2011 type evolution. The first wave rides up the front and OTS then we get demolished by the CCB from the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yahtzee!! Is that going to be enough for you brother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 What an absolute thing of beauty!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s kinda funny I haven’t even looked at anything past 90 hours yet. I’ve seen enough posts to know it goes on to show a snowstorm but I’m still parsing the 72-90 hour panels and comparing with the euro to try to figure out what’s causing the divergence and see if I can ascertain which progression is more likely. The details “after” are less important since they won’t be correct at that range anyways. But one progression gives us a legit chance at a big snow and the other does not. So figuring that out is all I care about right now. Wish I knew the biases and tendencies of the new GFS. Dumping too much energy into the west is an old school euro bias but I don’t know if that’s true anymore either. The lead shortwave that goes through the Lakes is pretty key obviously. Want that strong, separated, and moving east to get trapped under the Baffin NAO ridge. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: What an absolute thing of beauty!! Numb Clown Porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Is that going to be enough for you brother? I can answer that.....No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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