December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Snowmadness]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Slight push east on gfs. Also secondary pops. Backside snows. 

Yeah I saw that. Maybe it’s a new east trend…

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Have a feeling eps/gefs will continue to merge and final solution will be smack dab in the middle. Could be a track like Hatteras->Assateague->Wilminton DE to Apps sort of thing with a lobe of LP hanging back near MI. Actually thus what hinted at by guidance recently as 36 hrs ago.

Ha! GFS 18z track. Fml

[clskinsfan]

Well we have to admit no does failure as well as the MA. Be proud. You live with Lucy more than any other region in the country. What a shit show.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

And I have no idea why my post became 5 pages long. Fail is the name of the game. 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

And I have no idea why my post became 5 pages long. Fail is the name of the game. 

I was waiting for a picture to appear. 

And yes we really know how to fail.

[Prismshine Productions]

0z GFS OP taunting us through 120...

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[tstate21]

If we were to have a shot, we need that ridge on the west coast to trend stronger. Last couple runs have done that, but we need about 3 to 4 more runs of that. 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

Two days ago it was a coastal monster.  Now its 700 mikes further west .  That’s not science.  That’s example giving.

In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible  examples.  

What do you suggest they do to improve the guidance?

[Prismshine Productions]

What do you suggest they do to improve the guidance?

Stop trying to forecast 2 weeks+ on the models and stick to 7 days at a time to consolidate the processing power to a smaller window to improve accuracy

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[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Stop trying to forecast 2 weeks+ on the models and stick to 7 days at a time to consolidate the processing power to a smaller window to improve accuracy

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk
 

The euro only goes to 4.5 and 10 days. Icon 5 days and 8 days. Not sure that makes them any better within the range they run.  Does running extra days really limit the physics?  

[WinterWxLuvr]

People simply want things that aren’t possible. It’s amazing what the models can do. Simply too much chaos and randomness to think we will be able to nail 5+ day forecasts.

[dtk]

On 12/15/2022 at 6:29 PM, psuhoffman said:

@dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? 

Last major upgrade to the GEFS was in 2020 to version v12: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-75_gefsv12_changes.pdf

There have only been minor updates since then. NOAA is currently working on the next set of significant upgrades to GFS (v17) and GEFS (v13)...more than a year away.

 

[Stormfly]

On 12/17/2022 at 4:03 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Two days ago it was a coastal monster.  Now its 700 mikes further west .  That’s not science.  That’s example giving.

In the year 2022 with all the great supercomputing it is Not Too Much To Ask that some Forecasting be added instead of constant wavering to all possible  examples.  

Seems like there's something called blockchain everyone's interested in that literally wastes decillions of flops for mining vs. doing useful things such as climate research/modeling or medical research.  Not to mention the thousands of terawatt hours of electric consumed and its impact.  Sickening indeed!