SnowenOutThere Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Doubt the GFS makes many people happy this run with how much more consolidated and west the NS energy is as it drops out of Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Doubt the GFS makes many people happy this run with how much more consolidated and west the NS energy is as it drops out of Canada Yup it’s cutter time. Was fun while it lasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yeah, this run is going to cut. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Yep. Digging further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The guidance is clearly in the process of meeting in the middle, which is what happens 90% of the time, and why we lose when we’re rooting for the most extreme solution to be 100% correct in either direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It's ugly and a nod toward the other models. It aint over till it's over, but this run ain't gonna do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Wintry mix for BR west at 123 NW VA/C MD and westward get a quick thump at 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What a damn shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: What a damn shame It really is. H5 maps are nice, just 500 miles too far west. . Maybe this storm sets something up after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 We get a cold Xmas regardless. Time to focus on the 27th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: We get a cold Xmas regardless. Time to focus on the 27th. Yep, there’s that. At least it won’t be 70 degrees on xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It really is. H5 maps are nice, just 500 miles too far west. . Maybe this storm sets something up after The TNH pattern has been killing us. We’ve wasted several NAO blocks over the last 5 years the exact same way. The TNH ridge being pumped by “ya know” links to with the NAO ridge and pushes out any 50/50 way too fast so that systems can still cut. It’s been a repetitive issue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: We fail good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12z CMC 981mb SLP near Buffalo at 144... thunderstorms Thursday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The TNH pattern has been killing us. We’ve wasted several NAO blocks over the last 5 years the exact same way. The TNH ridge being pumped by “ya know” links to with the NAO ridge and pushes out any 50/50 way too fast so that systems can still cut. It’s been a repetitive issue. Seems to be a decadal oscillation. It’s been pos for a while now https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_ts.shtml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Definitely a December to Remember for all the wrong reasons… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Closer to 70 than snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Lol 958mb in SW Quebec at 165 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I’m all in on the rain-to-snow then quick flash freeze train now. Give me something intense 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Lol 958mb in SW Quebec at 165 Yep. It's ugly. Time to turn our attention to trying to salvage December between Christmas and New years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 GEFS out to 54 has a slightly flatter ridge Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Seems to be a decadal oscillation: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_ts.shtml It is and it’s always been better for us when it’s negative. BUT there were more examples in the past of a -NAO being able to beat down the +TNH pattern and suppress systems under us. Recently the TNH seems to be winning even when the AO/NAO are ridiculously negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 My mom had a saying when something went wrong: "I could just sit right down and cry my eyeballs out of my head!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 At least it's in the teens Christmas morning? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, J.Mike said: My mom had a saying when something went wrong: "I could just sit right down and cry my eyeballs out of my head!" It’s not that bad, the GFS broke just camp and left us with a bag of coal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It’s a Christmas miracle!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 That 12z GFS dropped a true Cleveland Steamer on us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Looks like mid 20s for highs on Christmas... lovely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Closer to 70 than snow That guy @leesburg 04saying near 70 this week....yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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