Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:25 AM, Weather Will said: The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean.I've seen the gefs change on a dime when the op model does. Consistency does not mean right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:37 AM, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February Expand Doug K. Rejoicing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:35 AM, Ji said: On 12/17/2022 at 5:25 AM, Weather Will said: The GEFS should be in its wheelhouse range at Day 7ish. It is an impressive mean. Expand I've seen the gefs change on a dime when the op model does. Consistency does not mean right Expand When the GFS had its bad 12Z run, the low pressure tracks did not all shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:37 AM, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February Expand The threats behind it lol. We don’t even know if this one is right let alone what’s behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:37 AM, Ji said: If we don't score on Dec 23....threats behind it look like trash right now...January thaw coming. We could be looking at no snow chanced till February Expand Not true: JMA, GEFS extended, EURO weeklies, CFSV2 all show a reload in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:42 AM, Weather Will said: Not true: JMA, GEFS extended, EURO weeklies, CFSV2 all show a reload in January. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Here is the WB EURO weeklies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:45 AM, Weather Will said: Here is the WB EURO weeklies. Expand Damn. That's a 32 day average? Looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:46 AM, Chris78 said: Damn. That's a 32 day average? Looks good to me Expand Yup….not a torch. Look, it may be wrong but the guidance I have reviewed does not indicate a prolonged January thaw or that winter is over after the holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 5:51 AM, TSSN+ said: Expand Looks to be sticking to its solution through hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 6:07 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Looks to be sticking to its solution through hour 54 Expand Yeah, don’t see major changes through 63 vs 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 True but look at GFS v EURO same time 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The vort over AK is sharper on this run at 81H…not sure what it means down the road but thats a step towards GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 re: Euro. Welp...goodnight folks. We'll try again with 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The difference in the gfs and the euro is the gfs rolls out the vort which creates a block for the second piece of energy, the euro just makes the whole vort rotate down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Burn the tape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 6:30 AM, TSSN+ said: Burn the tape Expand Good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 It will be interesting to see which one folds… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 6:35 AM, Weather Will said: It will be interesting to see which one folds… Expand Unfortunately probably the one starting with a G. On other note, nothing says Christmas like a QLCS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Still a crazy amount of cold behind that system.. 30F departures below normal from the Gulf of Mexico to the Montana/Canadian border. As per Euro, DCA challenges the record cold max for the 24th set in 1989 of 23F (25F on Euro), and the 4th coldest Christmas high w/ 26F as depicted. If it can't be snowy, at least some anomalous cold will make Christmas feel "wintry". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I believe the 06z ICON continues a good trend, no? The ridge out west is further east and the s/w isn't digging that far westward. Granted only goes out to 120 I'm comparing 06z 120 to 00z 114 h5 charts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ripping snow in DC at 132 on 06z GFS 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:08 AM, yoda said: Ripping snow in DC at 132 on 06z GFS Expand Good up to the md/pa line too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What a weird evolution of the 2nd part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:15 AM, yoda said: What a weird evolution of the 2nd partStill not caving to euro lol...it did shift west and north but still better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 On 12/17/2022 at 10:17 AM, Ji said: Still not caving to euro lol...it did shift west and north but still better than 18zIt actually gave us more snow than 00z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What a fascinating model stand-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 WB 6Z GFS….weird run with sloppy late phase to coastal. But still in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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