BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: We suck Way ahead of you. Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means. This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160. Could be a bleed though (but that's not my logical brain talking though; just the "we can never get a good trend" weenieism) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Looks like most would get on board before it's washed away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Still a long ways to go. Doesn't really look like the Euro or Ggem. Small enough move towards the other globals to warrant concern. I'm just hoping at this point that we still get the arctic outbreak for Dec 25 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Looks like most would get on board before it's washed away lol For a lot of us, there won't be anything to be washed away!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Small enough move towards the other globals to warrant concern. I'm just hoping at this point that we still get the arctic out real for Dec 25 at least. Well at least that part hasn't disappeared so far...still a big push if cold air being modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Incrementally weaker with the TPV under the block since 6z. Ultimately it ends up more like the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Well at least that part hasn't disappeared so far...still a big push if cold air being modeled So...we'll get an Aveeno warning then, I suppose! Cold and chapped and dry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Rats Doug K was right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means. This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160. For sure. Still plenty of time for things to change or swing back the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Awful hobby. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Incrementally weaker with the TPV under the block since 6z. Ultimately it ends up more like the Euro. Yup. And as a result the confluence becomes weaker and just gets kind of shoved out of the way a lot more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO? Still need other stuff to go right...Now what's causing this energy is being held back more is above my pay grade. Anybody know why? Or is it just random wave-breaking stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well at least that part hasn't disappeared so far...still a big push if cold air being modeled Any temps but 60s+ on Christmas for a change would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Any temps but 60s+ on Christmas for a change would be a win. Can't disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO? Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We’re still on the Island of Misfit Toys 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 We need someone to blame for this...who was the most negative?!?! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z. Yep, lots can still change either way. I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block. Let’s see what 18z Euro shows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Throw the Op run out. I’m holding on to the Ensembles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seriously, I'm pondering this too. We have all the right tellies and still can't cash-in? I mean, squashed due to too much of a good thing is even more acceptable than these systems plowing thru blocks and disrupting the good tellies at just the wrong time. On to 0z. Yeah things happening at the wrong time ain't climo that's just "it's not meant to be", lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: We need someone to blame for this...who was the most negative?!?! We can blame the toasty waters of the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast the Warm Fence is up from basically Cape Hatteras all points south. Warmth in the Southwestern Atlantic promotes ridging welcome to La Nina and a new climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Thank god for happy hour beers. Makes the GooFuS rainstorm seem like it could be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We need someone to blame for this...who was the most negative?!?! Want a list??? (Some of this is outdated, to be sure...it's from the 1880s...but I've seen the Mikado a few times and it can be adapted to more current events!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means. This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160. yeah, the GFS was more amplified because of the S/W. the synoptic evolution is absolutely nothing like the ECMWF this run was just typical Day 7 noise, not a step towards the ECMWF 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Always hard to know if any change is the start of a trend or just random variability. But when one model takes a step towards the other and the other model doubles down, the odds certainly skew towards the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, nj2va said: I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO? It's not that simple. This is a big NS vort digging down, and there needs to be some resistance above it to inhibit it from rotating back northward(cutting). Without a vortex under the NAO ridge(a true block), the confluence/convergence is weak and upper heights just build there out in front as the shortwave digs. eta- anecdotal but a -NAO is probably most effective in a Nino with an active southern stream as primary waves are embedded in that, rather than emanating from the northern stream with a NW to SE angle of approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Clueless said: Awful hobby. Cheer Up!! Historically, this is much more in tune with climatology, especially in December. Along and west of the Blue Ridge usually smiles................ You may be surprised next week, otherwise look forward to January and February. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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