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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:20 PM, psuhoffman said:

it’s still worlds apart BUT the Gfs did take a baby step towards the other guidance wrt the TPV which is why the further west track initially.  Little weaker to our north. Slightly stronger out west. 
8738FD4B-3D5D-47E0-A7E1-638D89CB817A.thumb.gif.eff555286d1b6a6540542d0f54f9f6bb.gif

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I was just going to say...so, could one argue that the GFS is actually a step toward the ECMWF camp, but just farther south with the trough?

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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:20 PM, psuhoffman said:

it’s still worlds apart BUT the Gfs did take a baby step towards the other guidance wrt the TPV which is why the further west track initially.  Little weaker to our north. Slightly stronger out west. 
8738FD4B-3D5D-47E0-A7E1-638D89CB817A.thumb.gif.eff555286d1b6a6540542d0f54f9f6bb.gif

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Kinda suspected that was a small step...if it does it again later the cave has begun, unfortunately...

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  On 12/16/2022 at 10:29 PM, WxUSAF said:

This is still not in the Euro camp though by any means.  This is a change from the 12z run that would be reasonable at 72-96hr leads, let alone 160.  

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Could be a bleed though (but that's not my logical brain talking though; just the "we can never get a good trend" weenieism)

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