Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:41 PM, Terpeast said: Curious. If NBM is a "blend" of models, and most models are going cutter, how can this be? Expand I am hoping it means that the 18z runs will start converging toward the GFS… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:41 PM, Terpeast said: Curious. If NBM is a "blend" of models, and most models are going cutter, how can this be? Expand Well, its 31 models and we focus on the big players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:41 PM, Terpeast said: Curious. If NBM is a "blend" of models, and most models are going cutter, how can this be? Expand Guess they are heavily favoring GFS/GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Trying to decide if we stay in Calvert for Christmas or go camping in Garrett county. Figure I'm covered no matter what happens but would be more comfortable at home in Calvert with the wood stove blasting so I'm voting for GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:43 PM, Weather Will said: I am hoping it means that the 18z runs will start converging toward the GFS… Expand the NBM seems to ingest a helluva a lot of data from models I've never even heard of -- but I'm pretty confident its not getting access to future runs/has predictive value for the next cycle. Think this is (unfortunately) just a byproduct of a HECS GFS run being added to the blend. It even has the exact same stripe of max snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18Z NBM at the end of its run with storm 2 included. Epic Christmas weekend if it verifies. Don’t give up hope yet, we have a ways to go….buckle up!!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:41 PM, Terpeast said: Curious. If NBM is a "blend" of models, and most models are going cutter, how can this be? Expand Gfs had 38” over me. Let’s say that includes the ggem euro and ukmet. The average of 38,0,0,0 is 9.5 which is what it shows. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:47 PM, psuhoffman said: Gfs had 38” over me. Let’s say that includes the ggem euro and ukmet. The average of 38,0,0,0 is 9.5 which is what it shows. Expand Yeah, skewed mean is probably the best explanation. That's why we have to be careful "blending" models together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:40 PM, Weather Will said: NBM 18Z v 12Z…..we are off to a good start…. Expand What's the 18z based off of if none of the 18z models have ran yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:36 PM, yoda said: Um, it has? From this afternoons LWX AFD: Broad, highly anomalous ridging will build into the Arctic, sending a deep upper low south into the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley by Thursday. The collision of this cold upper low with warmer temperatures near the Gulf Stream will likely generate a strong area of low pressure in the vicinity of the East Coast. Details in track, strength, and timing remain uncertain, and overall confidence remains low; however, it should be noted that most long range guidance has been unusually consistent in hinting at a potential wintry precipitation scenario late next week. && Expand Yeah, pretty much. Every single one has shown snow for the region at some point. The EURO may not be what we want...but it still consistently has at least a little snow for everyone. The CMC started this whole mess (first to show 12"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NBM is useless given the disparity, and the blend probably includes models with low or no skill at this range. Only runs that matter are the next GFS and Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:51 PM, Chris78 said: What's the 18z based off of if none of the 18z models have ran yet? Expand Think of the NBM as a cycle or two behind the deterministic guidance. The 18z NBM has the 12z GFS/GEFS, but still has the 00z ECMWF/EPS and some 06z guidance. Full ECWMF 12z guidance is not within the NBM until its 21z run. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:57 PM, Disc said: Think of the NBM as a cycle or two behind the deterministic guidance. The 18z NBM has the 12z GFS/GEFS, but still has the 00z ECMWF/EPS and some 06z guidance. Full ECWMF 12z guidance is not within the NBM until its 21z run. Expand Thanks for the info. Sounds useless in this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:43 PM, lpaschall said: Well, its 31 models and we focus on the big players. Expand I could be totally wrong but I thought a lot of those were meso scale models that don’t go out that far. At that range is it still incorporating that many models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:57 PM, Disc said: Think of the NBM as a cycle or two behind the deterministic guidance. The 18z NBM has the 12z GFS/GEFS, but still has the 00z ECMWF/EPS and some 06z guidance. Full ECWMF 12z guidance is not within the NBM until its 21z run. Expand That makes sense thanks. So it’s telling us we should have been celebrating 12 hours ago and we already know it’s going to be depressing at 0z lol. Nice model. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:25 PM, Steve25 said: I personally couldn't ever care less about what the Icon, Ukie, or frankly even the CMC show. But when they're all in agreement with the Euro, that's a very bad sign and trend. One is going to move towards the others at 0z tonight... Expand Not being a Deb, but I think we are quickly losing the big MECS scenario in our regions. When was the last time numerous guidance moved almost in unison away from a MECS/HECS then subsequently moved back towards the single model holding out? It isn't common to see it play out like that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:47 PM, Weather Will said: 18Z NBM at the end of its run with storm 2 included. Epic Christmas weekend if it verifies. Don’t give up hope yet, we have a ways to go….buckle up!!!! Expand But it does have the Mt psuhoffman maximum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:04 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not being a Deb, but I think we are quickly losing the big MECS scenario in our regions. When was the last time numerous guidance moved almost in unison away from a MECS/HECS then subsequently moved back towards the single model holding out? It isn't common to see it play out like that. Expand Jan 2000 guidance had that hecs from range then lost it. But they never actually brought it back until it was snowing lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Did we extrapolate the 18z NAM yet or did I miss that post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 8:42 PM, Twilly05 said: Yup. Pretty much it Expand why i hate models lol they all mostly say something different when they were just in agreement. after they had that big update in 2018 it feels like models got worse in many ways 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:09 PM, psuhoffman said: Jan 2000 guidance had that hecs from range then lost it. But they never actually brought it back until it was snowing lol. Expand That was an out-to-sea scenario, and then it turned north at the last minute. I remember Doug Hill saying "okay, I'm a little suspicious, this seems to be moving north not east..." We're not going to do the reverse unless there's a redevelopment scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The model disparity in the handling of the TPV underscores the importance of having negative height anomalies underneath the NAO ridge in order for it to act as an effective block, encouraging a favorable storm track underneath. Fill that area in with a ridge and it becomes largely impotent and of little use to achieve the desired outcome. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:10 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Did we extrapolate the 18z NAM yet or did I miss that post? Expand Looks to be more in the GFS camp still (dare I say another step towards the GFS?). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:18 PM, Terpeast said: That was an out-to-sea scenario, and then it turned north at the last minute. I remember Doug Hill saying "okay, I'm a little suspicious, this seems to be moving north not east..." We're not going to do the reverse unless there's a redevelopment scenario. Expand You've been awfully definitive in your announcements that this is all but dead and buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 NAM doesn't look like Euro at 500 at H84 thats for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:20 PM, olafminesaw said: Looks to be more in the GFS camp still (dare I say another step towards the GFS?).It wasSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:24 PM, SnowLover22 said: Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. How big a step? Trust me, IT MATTERSSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Guys, we already know GFS is New King, hands down, if it pulls off this win. It starts with 18z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 On 12/16/2022 at 9:24 PM, SnowLover22 said: Not that it matters that much but Icon just made a step toward the gfs camp. Expand Hey any positive is welcome at this point (I know I'm contradicting myself after I just trashed the ICON earlier, lol). Less energy left behind in WC. Look up top did seem to improve a bit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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