December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[yoda]

H5 was glorious at 186

[Amped]

January 2011 type evolution.  The first wave rides up the front and OTS then we get demolished by the CCB from the ULL.

[Wonderdog]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 

Yahtzee!!

Is that going to be enough for you brother?

[Buddy1987]

What an absolute thing of beauty!!

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s kinda funny I haven’t even looked at anything past 90 hours yet. I’ve seen enough posts to know it goes on to show a snowstorm but I’m still parsing the 72-90 hour panels and comparing with the euro to try to figure out what’s causing the divergence and see if I can ascertain which progression is more likely.  The details “after” are less important since they won’t be correct at that range anyways. But one progression gives us a legit chance at a big snow and the other does not. So figuring that out is all I care about right now.  Wish I knew the biases and tendencies of the new GFS. Dumping too much energy into the west is an old school euro bias but I don’t know if that’s true anymore either. 

The lead shortwave that goes through the Lakes is pretty key obviously.  Want that strong, separated, and moving east to get trapped under the Baffin NAO ridge.  

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

What an absolute thing of beauty!!

Numb Clown Porn

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is that going to be enough for you brother?

I can answer that.....No

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

The lead shortwave that goes through the Lakes is pretty key obviously.  Want that strong, separated, and moving east to get trapped under the Baffin NAO ridge.  

Yeah, that is a key player in all this. Without that thing, or it behaves differently, the whole thing falls apart and we get a 2-4er, mix, or a total whiff. 

I don't think we get a cutter this time, though.

[Amped]

CMC is a bit different.

[Weather Will]

Merry Christmas!

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Rockwood Bar and Grill call

if this holds...roger that...and grab Wonderdog too

[Solution Man]

Just now, BristowWx said:

if this holds...roger that...and grab Wonderdog too

It's on

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

...And a (mostly) rain storm for BOS?  

 

Not fully buying this solution yet.

Anytime a model spits out something unprecedented, you should take it with a heaping dose of salt. However, we do have near record -AO, -EPO, and -NAO…

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Is that going to be enough for you brother?

I guess.  heck it might be a smidge too much.  hopefully the Euro can dial back the totals a bit. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Gosh that run is a thing of beauty, 971 at Ocean City would probably be a legit blizzard.

[Heisy]

It’s kinda funny I haven’t even looked at anything past 90 hours yet. I’ve seen enough posts to know it goes on to show a snowstorm but I’m still parsing the 72-90 hour panels and comparing with the euro to try to figure out what’s causing the divergence and see if I can ascertain which progression is more likely.  The details “after” are less important since they won’t be correct at that range anyways. But one progression gives us a legit chance at a big snow and the other does not. So figuring that out is all I care about right now.  Wish I knew the biases and tendencies of the new GFS. Dumping too much energy into the west is an old school euro bias but I don’t know if that’s true anymore either. 

Yep. Take a look at newest CMC run and put it in motion and watch our tpv feature. It heads down the EPO ridge and then literally just stops in its tracks in the NW. Guess we’ll find out soon…

I was bored this morning and went back to see which model did better with the current ULL at day 6. GFS was way more accurate.


.

[H2O]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Dude.  We flirt with mixing.  Lets get one that doesn't do that

[nj2va]

Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city.  GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

What an absolute thing of beauty!!

From avocados to pink canoes.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city.  GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.

I am not happy in Northern Delaware, too much sleet, but I will gladly take it.  

[H2O]

I don't really care for a massive jacked storm cause this is always a concern IMBY.  

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

From avocados to pink canoes.

Big ole custom made bowling ball.. specially delivered for the Mid Atlantic crew

[Heisy]

Ukie dumps all the energy out west and doesn’t separate the TPV. Changes start early around 72-90 hours. One side is brutally wrong


.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, frd said:

I am not happy in Northern Delaware, too much sleet, but I will gladly take it.  

Well I mean...you and others closer to the ocean have done nicely the last couple ninas! Spread the snow wealth 

[clskinsfan]

Just switched drivers. My wife took over for a while so I could salivate at that unbelievable defo band on the GFS. Unreal.

 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block.

 

FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just cover the grass for Christmas. That's all I'm asking for.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block.

 

FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.

Wonder if the NAM on Sunday will be something to look at if we don't have more clarity by then

[Prismshine Productions]

Just cover the grass for Christmas. That's all I'm asking for.

Literally everybody from Tallahassee to Savannah and points north

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[frd]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

PV never makes it eastward on the GEM....the whole thing happens pretty early in the run....like look at 84h at H5 on GEM vs GFS....GFS already diving the PV lobe ESE with some ridging on the west coast while GEM has no ridging there and the PV is just going to park in W Canada with nothing to pin it under the NAO block.

 

FWIW, the NAM at 84h looks like the GFS and not the GEM.

 

Appears that the GEFS is moving to support the Op.  Looking good so far.