WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts: Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. amirite? The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Ok. Back on US soil. Haven’t seen anything but I’m pretty sure two things are facts: Something has changed, as forecasts beyond 7 days do There are the usual suspects who are concerned and nitpicking every small detail. amirite? yes..yes you are. we have no functioning gauges but the radio works..clear as a bell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: yes..yes you are. we have no functioning gauges but the radio works..clear as a bell May wish you had stayed in Bali… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The WPC leans more towards the GFS, FWIW Feb 83 vibes with the dual low structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Indeed--welcome back! Also...HAPPY BEETHOVEN DAY to all who observe 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Mid Altantic snow lovers right now 2 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just want to point this out:The 6z ENS suits (GEFS and EPS both) had the ridge taller and the energy digging further west. The 12z run from yesterday is still very much on the table, because we all know that models have a tendency to overcorrect (which is what I suspected happened from 18z last night through 6z GFS OP this morning. Got a hunch we see the ridge trend back more amped with taller heights like ALL of us need until we find the median for the Short range wheelhouse.Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ICON being the ICON....send this thing back to Germany for a tuneup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The blinds have been opening and closing with lightning speed But you know that every time a model runs the "close the blinds" people are doing this. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 42 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yellow'd 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Counterpoint to the idea that you're living in the wrong area if you root for big storms. I'd agree if you mean you want a big storm every winter. We're going on 7 years since our last single snowfall that reached even 8 inches. Even for this area, that's a pretty extended stretch. So can't really blame the folks who are feeling that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON being the ICON....send this thing back to Germany for a tuneup Maybe we can get a Mod risk for severe…. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 ICON looks much like yesterday's system at this range tbh. Fropa with a wave along it. Pumps ser ahead of the system and drives primary into Lake Superior. Next up, the CMC and GFS Eta: one fail option...avocado mucks things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Maybe we can get a Mod risk for severe…. Very plausible outcome. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe we can get a Mod risk for severe…. this would be a lot of fun in its own way. Nuts temperature gradient 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2022 Author Share Posted December 16, 2022 Better close the blinds until the GFS comes out 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe we can get a Mod risk for severe…. more importantly what is the temp in San Diego on this model? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Very plausible outcome. Atmospheric memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON looks much like yesterday's system at this range tbh. Fropa with a wave along it. Pumps ser ahead of the system and drives primary into Lake Superior. Next up, the CMC and GFS The key is what the TPV does. Icon is back to the euro idea of 48 hours ago dropping the whole thing into the west. That pumps a ridge that links with the “block” creating just a full latitude ridge in the east. The solution we want is the tpv to side under the block and just a piece to drop in behind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: this would be a lot of fun in its own way. Nuts temperature gradient Arctic squall line with thunder and rain turning to snow for 5 minutes then flash freeze? We take? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Arctic squall line with thunder and rain turning to snow for 5 minutes then flash freeze? We take? While we wait for the GFS and real discussion... I'd take something that wild over a 1-2" pure snow event. From 60 to 20 in an hour or so? It would feel unbelievable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Weenie handbook 3rd edition....Chapter 2 section 4 paragraph 7 states "when the model starts failing on the storm 7 days out we say that it is 'setting up for the followup system 2 days later'" 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Weenie handbook 3rd edition....Chapter 2 section 4 paragraph 7 states "when the model starts failing on the storm 7 days out we say that it is 'setting up for the followup system 2 days later'" The storm after the storm (and after that storm... and after that storm.. and then winter 2023 - 2024 on December 5.. and ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 No one extrapolated the NAM 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 44 minutes ago, wxtrix said: camp 3: no snow until after Christmas. I'm usually in the camp that roots for the storm of the century, but that needs to wait until January 2nd. I'm in camp 4: 2"-4" on the ground by Christmas, but not enough to cause travel headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At Day 3, WB 12Z GFS is the same as yesterday at Day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: At Day 3, GFS is the same as yesterday at Day 3. Wow that is really consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, RickinBaltimore said: Wow that is really consistent. we will know soon enough. if we avoid what 6z GFS spit out yesterday it will be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Day 4 compared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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