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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
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Verbatim it's a big hit along I-95 and east. NW burbs would see several inches.
1671786000-CA5IxIZ1EfY.png
1671796800-vxdFMv6YKag.png

Different outcome, but still a solid hit as you said. Doubt many of us would be upset if this played out verbatim with another shot at snow 3-4 days afterward - particularly along the I95 corridor.

A foot of snow Christmas week with a very cold airmass in place for BWI. That’d be a huge win in my view.

Nonetheless, some will still be like “damn, the phase was too late so we didn’t see a 1-2 footer”. If you’re living with a ‘KU or bust’ mantra living in the mid Atlantic in the year 2022, you’re literally begging for disappointment.


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8 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Different outcome, but still a solid hit as you said. Doubt many of us would be upset if this played out verbatim with another shot at snow 3-4 days afterward - particularly along the I95 corridor.

A foot of snow Christmas week with a very cold airmass in place for BWI. That’d be a huge win in my view.

Nonetheless, some will still be like “damn, the phase was too late so we didn’t see a 1-2 footer”. If you’re living with a ‘KU or bust’ mantra living in the mid Atlantic in the year 2022, you’re literally begging for disappointment.


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At this juncture the depiction on the means is reasonably close to what we want, but plenty of details that will determine the ultimate outcome remain unresolved.

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People expecting every run to not have variation are in for a long week. Gonna be some changes for something 7 days away. 
 

And a reminder for those freaking out over the euro

 

It showed San Diego in a deep freeze just a couple days ago.  How’s that working out?

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3 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Honestly I’d be happy with 2-4” and an arctic blast, for Christmas… meanwhile waiting on the 27th storm to arrive.

1-2 feet would be disruptive.  oh hell I would love it but also love 3 inches.  also I noticed just looking at the snowfall maps it is possible the entire state of VA would have a white Christmas if things work out.  That has to be quite rare. 

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28 minutes ago, H2O said:

People expecting every run to not have variation are in for a long week. Gonna be some changes for something 7 days away. 
 

And a reminder for those freaking out over the euro

 

It showed San Diego in a deep freeze just a couple days ago.  How’s that working out?

7 days out, a lot will change. Just happy to be in the game.

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It would be nice to get a big early season hit because I’ve noticed the forum is a lot less volition and reactionary in seasons where the snow fix has already been satiated somewhat. 

I don’t know, once you get a taste of the good stuff…just makes you want more….plus there is JI, who always wants more better.  I think he was complaining 2nd half of Feb 2010…meanwhile I was hiring folks to shovel off my flat roof from 3ft of snow.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

A bit of an increased indication of low pressure to the NW on the 6z GEFS. 

1671796800-7PM8MMGW69U.png

Do you feel the GFS suppresses coastal low pressure incorrectly as a bias? 

Earlier in the month it had this storm further out in the Atlantic only to correct West.  

Also I read that the warm pool in the NW Atlantic may be playing a role by enticing the block to connect to this area by the way of a ridge and hence cause the coastal to be more of a inland runner or coastal hugger.   

This warm pool has been a persistent feature and was even focused on during the summer as part of a study on marine heat waves where certain ocean SST anomalies are significantly above normal.  

So we have anomalous - AO but also anomalously warm sea surface temps in the NW Atlantic. I imagine possibly competing forces for our area.  

Maybe this feature becomes less of a concern next month.  

 

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