December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Hr 246

GFS setting up round 2?

[IUsedToHateCold]

Let's be fair, I wouldn't trust the CMC or the Icon with setting a mousetrap at this range. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, jaydreb said:

GFS setting up round 2?

Really close, but good for now

[Prestige Worldwide]

[clskinsfan]

Just look and salivate at that west coast ridge. We are gonna get hit yall. The op runs are theater. No use in parsing precip maps. Just look at the setup. It is frikin gorgeous. 

[Amped]

A 1011mb surface low in the gulf is the best this troff could do.    

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Just look and salivate at that west coast ridge. We are gonna get hit yall. The op runs are theater. No use in parsing precip maps. Just look at the setup. It is frikin gorgeous. 

We be snowin’. Wouldn’t shock me if many hit climo by month end.  

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

January 1987.

[CentralVaNATS]

Anyone looking at 850mb profile?
Also the Christmas am 2m temps?
Nuts if verified within 50%of that.
Iceberg

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[Jersey Andrew]

3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Anyone looking at 850mb profile?
Also the Christmas am 2m temps?
Nuts if verified within 50%of that.
Iceberg

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What does it show? I believe Christmas 1983 was coldest in DC. High 14 Low 3.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said:

Anyone looking at 850mb profile?
Also the Christmas am 2m temps?
Nuts if verified within 50%of that.
Iceberg

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Ouch

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Ouch

Crazy how much impact a fresh snow pack makes.  RDU colder than Boston.  Of course if the snow pack isn't there then you don't get anywhere near this.

[Amped]

Icon, UKmet and CMC don't look very promising for this event.  It's a strong coldfront on all of them. Rain, then cold and windy with snow squalls.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Ouch

Believe it or not. That is 17 degrees warmer than 83 was in Winchester. Shows just how incredible the 83 arctic blast really was. And probably better for us in all honesty. 83 was cold and dry. We dont want snow in Myrtle while our balls shrivel. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Amped said:

Icon, UKmet and CMC don't look very promising for this event.  It's a strong coldfront.

Keep us posted

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Icon, UKmet and CMC don't look very promising for this event.  It's a strong coldfront.

I will give you the UK CMC and ICON and take the Euro and GFS. I will give you 3 to 1 on your money.....Wanna take that bet?

[CentralVaNATS]

Ouch

I will take this with it 12".
6" will do for me.
Plus more to come in early Jan 2023

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[TSSN+]

Ain’t too shabby 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Crazy how much impact a fresh snow pack makes.  RDU colder than Boston.  Of course if the snow pack isn't there then you don't get anywhere near this.

You would if its right. the front just made it to Boston on that map. The reason they hate heavy blocking in a nutshell. The northern jet can get buckled around them. 

[clskinsfan]

0Z GEFS:

 

[DarkSharkWX]

New WPC forecast shows 10-50% of exceeding .25" of snow/sleet(liquid equivalent) for much of the mid-Atlantic/northeast, and even extending down into the southeast.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

0Z GEFS:

 

Forgot all about Hornswagle, lol

[dmcginvt]

On 12/10/2022 at 8:04 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-. 

so whats the verification thus far

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

Good thing most are asleep and didn’t see the Euro.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

Good thing most are asleep and didn’t see the Euro.

Yeah something happened up top with the blocking...seemed to weaken and the energy didn't dig enough.

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

The King Giveth…. The King Taketh.

[Prismshine Productions]

so whats the verification thus far

Based on the trends today, dead on the money

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[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS

[jayyy]

0Z GEFS:


 

Exactly mate. I’d take this look @ 500mb all damn day and roll the dice. We’re likely cashing in in some way shape or form by Christmas and new years, the question is do we hit the jackpot?

Way too many folks getting caught up on differences in surface map outcomes on OP runs 8 days out. Just because the 12z GFS showed a foot of snow in our backyard and 3-6” a few runs later at 0z (due to fairly minute differences in timing / location / etc) doesn’t mean things are trending away from us. Not 8 days out. Folks deep down know better, but the emotions and anticipation get the best of em.

Details such as timing, exact location of key features, the precise amount of western ridging and digging in the east, etc. will get ironed out as we get closer to the event. 5 days out or less is when these types of trends on OP runs should begin to either worry or excite us. There’s a reason these OP outcomes waffle so much at range. Ensembles are still very much the thing to lean on when you’re a week plus out from an event. Living and dying with each clown map from OP run to OP run is precisely why so many get let down. “But that one run 7-10 days out showed Frederick getting 30”, what a bust!” OY VEY, as my ancestors would say.

The only thing we should be taking away from the last 24-48 hours is that pretty much the entire global suite has trended toward a strong signal for at least one SECS+ around Christmas, that there will be very cold air around, and that many in this sub will likely see at least an advisory level snowfall, if not more - in December - with at least another 2 chances on the heels of the 23rd-25th threat. We can’t ask for much more than that. The next 4 weeks could be special if the stars align. That’s the nature of living in this general area.

I, for one, am not worrying about less digging from one run to the next 7+ days out, otherwise I’ll be burnt out long before the storm ever materializes. Let’s at least save the worrying about surface map outcomes for when OPs actually matter.

So long as the GEFS and EPS are signaling a solid potential for a significant EC storm a week out, I am satisfied and will take each individual OP run with a grain of salt until the 18th or so. It’s all simply noise at this range.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah something happened up top with the blocking...seemed to weaken and the energy didn't dig enough.

The initial wave sliding east under the NAO ridge towards 50-50 is weaker, and more energy is dumped into the main shortwave- so a stronger shortwave with less resistance above and it doesn't dig as far south. Fairly subtle differences in the wave interactions can make big differences in the outcome.