December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain.  I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 

I doubt it too. Yes could happen that way, but seems a bit unusual. More likely part of the 'figuring it out' process. Just looking at h5 vorticity and the nature of the main Shortwave diving SE in conjunction with the wave coming in further south under the western ridge, it would seem much of that southern energy would get absorbed (phase with) the main wave digging south, and the rest would be left behind, with very little energy shooting out ahead to help induce that initial coastal low.

[MDScienceTeacher]

42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run.

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

[Weather Will]

The low position shifted closer to the coast this GEFS run.  Not sure why the snow mean did not go up.. maybe that is why they are called clown maps…

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

I ain't even know the colors on there got that dark, lol Purple--go Ravens! 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

That’s a wise approach. But that’s not how this forum rolls (even though we know better)

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters.

 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here  White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 

I think some don’t realize that due to time dispersion at that range any low signature will be diffuse.  Also often biased east because of outlier members that have a weaker solution along with the fact the low generally gets deeper as it progresses east. That’s a hell of a signature for that range. If it was 3 days away looking like that then we can worry. 

[poolz1]

I have a terrible meteo memory but is this type of evolution similar to a storm we had in '15?  I recall a distinct lull between the coastal and ULL.  Great storm but disjointed iirc.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I have a terrible meteo memory but is this type of evolution similar to a storm we had in '15?  I recall a distinct lull between the coastal and ULL.  Great storm but disjointed iirc.

Feb 14 2014

[Jersey Andrew]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 14 2014

Does the progged storm for late next week resemble any other storm or similar pattern?

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 14 2014

Yes! '14.  I remember being on the outside looking in with the majority of the ULL pass.  Still put down around a foot imby but I think places east had close to 2'.

Would you consider the GFS/Euro to be a similar evolution to the feb 14 storm?

[HighStakes]

Thank you to all those who tell us to keep expectations in check and don't get our hopes too high for a  storm that is 168 HOURS AWAY!!! I definitely needed to be brought back to reality. 

 

 

[Amped]

There are a substantial amount of cutters on both the GEFS and EPS.  Relax I'm just the messenger.

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Around this time tomorrow we get into the 7 day window for this one. 

How far ahead did the models sniff out this major dakotas blizzard and a mostly rain event here today?

TT only goes back 7 days.. but it nailed it in the 7 day window:

[George BM]

47 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

 

[TSG]

11 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

TT only goes back 7 days.. but it nailed it in the 7 day window:

Not quite. It had the idea on that run but the next day (dec 9th) we got like 3 runs in a row showing snow/frozen for central VA and north, followed by 2 or 3 showing suppression with us maybe getting some flurries.

It didn't "lock in" on the correct solution until 12z on the 10th. So about 4-5 days.

[AtlanticWx]

This threat looks exciting for our area tbh. The spread on the ensembles is good at this range, we don't exactly want to be in the bullseye.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Does the progged storm for late next week resemble any other storm or similar pattern?

Details like the double barrel thing are useless at this range. From a pattern sense, west NAO block, 50/50, western ridge, TPV under the block that rotates a lobe and dives down to our SW, yea this setup resembles lots of our big snowstorms. But also a lot of close misses.  It’s similar to December 2009. But it’s also similar to December 2010!  I posted the h5 of 6 storms once and 3 were HECS and 3 were total busts and you couldn’t tell the difference.  The pattern is great. We need luck with the details now. 

[mdhokie]

On 12/7/2022 at 8:02 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

This would be an epic call from the 12/7 GFS 366HR. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

This would be an epic call from the 12/7 GFS 366HR. 

That is one iteration among many other disparate runs in that timeframe.

[IronTy]

Wow that 18Z was drool.  Hell, even WeatherBug is showing the snow on the ten day forecast.   That's a lock.   

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Me personally i'm waiting for perfection

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

Need you for PBP, keep up the libations because you are going in the game Sunday

[SnowenOutThere]

26 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

This threat looks exciting for our area tbh. The spread on the ensembles is good at this range, we don't exactly want to be in the bullseye.

There is no reason to not want to be in the bullseyes besides superstition, we don’t want a spread of the ensembles that shows cutters 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m concerned that temps are in the 20s instead of low teens. We need more leeway. 

Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Saturated soil going eat the snow. Ground must be a frozen brick. Need advertised Barney cold or I'll worry even more until the advertised snow doesn't come.

That and sun angle will be rising by that time so any marginal temps won't be enough to overcome it.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

That and sun angle will be rising by that time so any marginal temps won't be enough to overcome it.  

The dumb angle is always a problem. 

[Weather Will]

WB latest extended GEFS 7 day period centered around Christmas.  Pretty amazing and rare if this indeed verifies.

[NorthArlington101]

47 minutes ago, George BM said:

 

Not only that...

 

[Jersey Andrew]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Details like the double barrel thing are useless at this range. From a pattern sense, west NAO block, 50/50, western ridge, TPV under the block that rotates a lobe and dives down to our SW, yea this setup resembles lots of our big snowstorms. But also a lot of close misses.  It’s similar to December 2009. But it’s also similar to December 2010!  I posted the h5 of 6 storms once and 3 were HECS and 3 were total busts and you couldn’t tell the difference.  The pattern is great. We need luck with the details now. 

I did not want to mention that storm from 12 years ago by name. Actually was living in northern New Jersey at the time where we cashed in. Back in NOVA now.

[GATECH]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The dumb angle is always a problem. 

And rates, if you don’t have 5”/hr rates it will never accumulate on the roads!