Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,797
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    jimmyjam
    Newest Member
    jimmyjam
    Joined

December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take.

Well for what it's worth looking closely, there's a hint of a trough extending northwest through the Lakes area.  Probably the effect of various other solutions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Snow into the cities by 0z next Thursday. Looks a bit euro like. But think this will end satisfactorily for most.

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain.  I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one..

 

I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here :lol: White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 

  • Like 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain.  I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 

I doubt it too. Yes could happen that way, but seems a bit unusual. More likely part of the 'figuring it out' process. Just looking at h5 vorticity and the nature of the main Shortwave diving SE in conjunction with the wave coming in further south under the western ridge, it would seem much of that southern energy would get absorbed (phase with) the main wave digging south, and the rest would be left behind, with very little energy shooting out ahead to help induce that initial coastal low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run.

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

That’s a wise approach. But that’s not how this forum rolls (even though we know better)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters.

 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here :lol: White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 

I think some don’t realize that due to time dispersion at that range any low signature will be diffuse.  Also often biased east because of outlier members that have a weaker solution along with the fact the low generally gets deeper as it progresses east. That’s a hell of a signature for that range. If it was 3 days away looking like that then we can worry. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...