December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS

Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take.

[CAPE]

All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one..

eta- by 'next one' I mean next model cycle lol. Both runs are good.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats like 1/4 northeast of the USA under some form of wintry precip. Talk about an expansive precip shield and thats with the mean ens lp leaning well off the coast. We take.

Well for what it's worth looking closely, there's a hint of a trough extending northwest through the Lakes area.  Probably the effect of various other solutions.

[Terpeast]

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

[osfan24]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

San Diego went from 10 degrees to 95.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

8-14 is a beaut as well

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one..

 

Uh oh…fish storm?? 

[BristowWx]

Cold…damn cold up to NYE

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uh oh…fish storm?? 

Lot of misses on the WB 18Z GEFS members mixed in with the heavy hitters.  Keep hopes in check for a few more days….

[psuhoffman]

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Snow into the cities by 0z next Thursday. Looks a bit euro like. But think this will end satisfactorily for most.

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain.  I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uh oh…fish storm?? 

Yeah, I was surprised no one was alarmed by the GEFS. But maybe it's cause it's still many days away? Definitely too east for my liking.

[psuhoffman]

@dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? 

[WxUSAF]

Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm

[WxUSAF]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@dtk or anyone else…did they ever update the gefs to be run off the new operational or is it still the old gefs? 

I feel like that’s still not happened…

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot of misses on the WB 18Z GEFS members mixed in with the heavy hitters.  Keep hopes in check for a few more days….

Man…that’s either a royal flush or pair of deuces 

[Amped]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm

Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Amped said:

Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters.

Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Uh oh…fish storm?? 

Mmmmm, sushi!! 

[aldie 22]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Best if we close the blinds until we get a PNA ridge that’s not so far east and also not so far west. 

Me personally i'm waiting for perfection

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All the maps aside, 18z GEFS is very similar to 12z for next week in every way. On to the next one..

 

I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here  White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ya’ll are missing my sarcasm

I almost said something then figured Naw let ‘em squirm a little. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel like that’s still not happened…

Worth noting that. That’s all. 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It does look VERY euro like but a little less strung out and more dominant with the “second secondary” so a little better result. The double barrel structure still limits a top end outcome a bit but no one (except one persons) would complain.  I still kinda doubt it ends up that way. Maybe. It could. But I’ve seen this look a lot at range and 90% of the time it ends up a more consolidated system when we’re talking about this kind of upper level feature involved. 

I doubt it too. Yes could happen that way, but seems a bit unusual. More likely part of the 'figuring it out' process. Just looking at h5 vorticity and the nature of the main Shortwave diving SE in conjunction with the wave coming in further south under the western ridge, it would seem much of that southern energy would get absorbed (phase with) the main wave digging south, and the rest would be left behind, with very little energy shooting out ahead to help induce that initial coastal low.

[MDScienceTeacher]

42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like the second storm on Boxing Day vanished this run.

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

[Weather Will]

The low position shifted closer to the coast this GEFS run.  Not sure why the snow mean did not go up.. maybe that is why they are called clown maps…

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Kinda amazing to see the CPC put out a map like this.

 

I ain't even know the colors on there got that dark, lol Purple--go Ravens! 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

As these things come in to resolution, I feel like the models will sort out/ consolidate storms wrt to timing.  Thats my guess but who knows how these things work under the hood.  

In my household everyone looks at the models.  We have a family limit - 156 hours.  If the storm is inside 156 hr, we are allowed to get psyched up over it.  Otherwise, it is fantasy land.  I guess tomorrow is the day we can start getting stoked.

That’s a wise approach. But that’s not how this forum rolls (even though we know better)

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah was just about to post that. There are a lot of cutters.

 

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I finally looked at it. Actually farther west than 12z. This next week is going to be nuts in here  White Christmas fever going to make crazy weenies 

I think some don’t realize that due to time dispersion at that range any low signature will be diffuse.  Also often biased east because of outlier members that have a weaker solution along with the fact the low generally gets deeper as it progresses east. That’s a hell of a signature for that range. If it was 3 days away looking like that then we can worry. 

[poolz1]

I have a terrible meteo memory but is this type of evolution similar to a storm we had in '15?  I recall a distinct lull between the coastal and ULL.  Great storm but disjointed iirc.