December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Wonderdog]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is a radio show acceptable? 

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Stop it

[clueless]

I just looked at the GFS.  Lolz.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:23 PM, mappy said:

LOLOL Unleash the Mappy! 

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[CAPE]

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

[frd]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:36 PM, Bob Chill said:

Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing

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I remember that well.  Philly with 14 inches I believe, then a sharp cut off to the West going from significant to nothing in a matter of miles. Snow basically moving due North with a super sharp West wall cut off. So depressing.

Second to that was the  Pamela Anderson bust, as DT called it.  March 6 th I forget the year maybe 2001 ?   Calls from Accu weather,  Paul Kocin and others for 16 to 22 inches of snow. As we all know, a total bust with only trace amounts.   

Hopefully this time we score. 

[frd]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:54 PM, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

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Another one for the low lands, or at least it appears that way currently. 

I recall a Nina snow event in the early 2000's and it was brutal after the snow.  These twin snowstorms could cause significant disruptions in travel if they occur. Whatever falls will be around for a while, no doubt very cold with dangerous wind chills.  

 

[Solution Man]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:02 PM, bluehens said:

For entertainment purposes only.  Need this to shift north 50 miles.

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Christmas Numb Clown Map

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:54 PM, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

 

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If my eggnog is spiked well enough, I'll be able to look out my window and see deep winter conditions and track the next one, regardless of what the actual weather is! 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:36 PM, Bob Chill said:

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho. 

 

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But the fact that only one of those worked for us (2009) shows ya how difficult it can still be. Not the best history, lol Another reason to keep expectations tempered...

[Quasievil]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:36 PM, Bob Chill said:

Check out some of these analogs... top tier stuff. Late Dec 2000 had an historic NE Miller B. We were subject to typical bad luck/timing/poor spacing when it mattered. It was a bomb tho. 

 

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12-18-2009 is an exceptional analog!

[lpaschall]

  On 12/15/2022 at 4:30 PM, Paleocene said:

Another snow storm chase to OC

 

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[Ji]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:54 PM, CAPE said:

Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm.

Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one. 

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hey , can we get the first one first 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:33 PM, Ji said:

hey , can we get the first one first 

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The more dice rolls the better brother!

[Bob Chill]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:02 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

But the fact that only one of those worked for us (2009) shows ya how difficult it can still be. Not the best history, lol Another reason to keep expectations tempered...

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That level of detail is too much for using analogs like this. Lots of little things can make or break things in yards and no 2 storms are alike. Having a big east coast storm signal like this at D11+ range is all that matters. Risk of fail only applies once a big storm forms. That's a long ways away

[Twilly05]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:08 PM, stormtracker said:

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

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Godspeed 

[Solution Man]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:37 PM, Twilly05 said:

Godspeed 

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When you ride First Class like Storm…20 hours don’t matter

[Ji]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:36 PM, Bob Chill said:

That level of detail is too much for using analogs like this. Lots of little things can make or break things in yards and no 2 storms are alike. Having a big east coast storm signal like this at D11+ range is all that matters. Risk of fail only applies once a big storm forms. That's a long ways away

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isnt dec 23 8 days away?

[BristowWx]

  On 12/15/2022 at 5:37 PM, Clueless said:

I just looked at the GFS.  Lolz.  

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I just looked at the CMC.  Lolz.

[LP08]

Euro doesn't quite dig far enough south the get the coastal going until its a hair too late.  Still some snow but incoming NE.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro is a missed connection with the phase but it still snows before the arctic front so I'll take it.

[LP08]

Great H5 pass though.

[MN Transplant]

Missing the first low but a secondary low develops in a good spot

edit - nice 3-6”

[WxUSAF]

Just Misses the full phase, capture, and TUCK, but this is a very merry Christmas from the euro.

[Paleocene]

very close

[Ji]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:44 PM, LP08 said:

Euro doesn't quite dig far enough south the get the coastal going until its a hair too late.  Still some snow but incoming NE.

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i mean--id take it but its like a 390 foot fly ball as opposed to a 380 foot homer

[MN Transplant]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:45 PM, LP08 said:

Great H5 pass though.

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[WxUSAF]

Really nice trends the last 12-24 hours. Long way to go still, but I wanted to see the shortwave dig more , and that’s exactly what we’re getting. I’d expect a few monsters in the EPS.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/15/2022 at 6:48 PM, MN Transplant said:

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Woooo baby. Classic.

[TSSN+]

It’s 186hrs out so I’d take that look right now and run with it. 

[Ji]

any model that this is close to being an all about blizzard but gives us worst case scenario 3-6...is a pretty good run.