December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Paleocene]

 3 days later on GFS

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

This is like triple the heartache because it’s not just snow, it’s not just a big snow, it’s a potential white Christmas too. But we know this isn’t happening. Come on guys…

12z GGEM waves hello lol

[ryanconway63]

If we get these 2 events the GFS is showing I will go ahead and call it a Winter, lol   Euro will be interesting

[Maestrobjwa]

Even if we were to just get a piece of the 12z GFS solution...anything that falls would easily stick around for Christmas with those frigid temperatures! We shall see...

[WinterWxLuvr]

We’re 8 days out. A lot will change. Just happy to be in the game.

If you know, you know lol

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We’re 8 days out. A lot will change. Just happy to be in the game.

If you know, you know lol

I’m waiting for PSU to come in and worry about being fringed / something slightly off in the setup / reasons why the storm won’t happen. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just looked at that storm on the euro and have to say that may be one of the more strange looking things I’ve seen. I guess it could happen just weird looking.

[bluehens]

For entertainment purposes only.  Need this to shift north 50 miles.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m waiting for PSU to come in and worry about being fringed / something slightly off in the setup / reasons why the storm won’t happen. 

If it’s next Monday and Hoffman is complaining about being fringed, we’ll finally know itshappening.gif

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yes. We just discussed it for 2 pages lol

Digging. Dig. 

[mappy]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Digging. Dig. 

you back tomorrow? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

20 minutes ago, H2O said:

Westminster becomes Donner pass and the low gets so TUCKED that a beverly hill plastic surgeon will be impressed.

There it is!! Just like I predicted. Lol

[Interstate]

4 minutes ago, bluehens said:

For entertainment purposes only.  Need this to shift north 50 miles.

I would take this in a heartbeat. 16 inches is enough for me. I don’t need to be jackpotted. 

[Snowmadness]

Santa, All I want for Xmas is the 12z to verify!!!  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

you back tomorrow? 

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Digging. Dig. 

 

1 minute ago, mappy said:

you back tomorrow? 

Ban anyone who starts a thread. Ban them if they mention a thread. Ban them if you think they are even thinking about starting a thread. 
 

And the first person who ponders “wonder when they’ll issue warnings” ban them for life.

[Eskimo Joe]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Make this happen lol

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

SAfe travels, friend.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The shortwave that gets it done shoots SE out of an EPO ridge wave break, after a lead piece comes out and moves into the 50-50 position. The 0z run did this, but 12z did it better. (The 6z run brought too much energy out in the lead wave, with not much trailing energy). PNA ridge axis is perfect.

Beautiful progression.

Textbook

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Textbook

Need it to happen 100 miles farther  west

[stormtracker]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

Ban anyone who starts a thread. Ban them if they mention a thread. Ban them if you think they are even thinking about starting a thread. 
 

And the first person who ponders “wonder when they’ll issue warnings” ban them for life.

I’m leaving that sweet task to mappy. 
 

my return will herald in a new age of horrible moderation, subpar play by play and the Kirkland brand version of analysis. 

[CAPE]

 

[Snowmadness]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Short Pump?

I live in Short Pump….lol.  Western Henrico.  (Basically suburb of Richmond) Nice area, lots of commercial development. Housing costs a little pricey. 

[CAPE]

[psuhoffman]

Since we finally have a legit tangible threat I think its worth noting a trend I have observed the last few years wrt the guidance.  There has always been a general time period when guidance was likely to converge on a consensus and then from that point on its only the details that usually need to get ironed out.  Where the fringe ends up.  Meso scale banding.  Exact rain/snow line.  But the large scale features and general track is locked in.  Obviously there are exceptions where a huge across all guidance bust happens but thats rare.  The old timers remember in the 90's and early 2000's when that "convergence" didnt typically happen until 36-72 hours out.  More recently that convergence on a general solution has been happening between about 100 and 140 hours.  We are still outside that range where guidance will shotgun solutions within a very wide permutation of outcomes every run.  Trends in the ensembles are still way more important at this range then any one op run.  Once the various globals begin to converge on a solution, likely not for another couple days at least... then we can start to worry about details.  And once convergence happens it still doesn't mean there won't be changes...just that those changes likely wont be 500 miles!  Until then it really doesn't matter what any one op run says.  Once we do see that convergence around day 5...we don't want to see a track that is hundreds of miles away from what we need.  The old "NC bullzeye is fine day 5" thing has not worked for us lately.  The error from day 5 isn't what it used to be.  But we are still way outside that range.  

 

On a more specific note regarding THIS setup... The pattern is absolutely loaded heading forward.  About as good as we can hope for.  There will likely be multiple threats.   But even with the blocking this is a more difficult setup for guidance to resolve because we are at the mercy of stream phasing.  These are not STJ dominant systems.  This is a MUCH better pattern than a typical NINA but its still not fully a split flow STJ dominant Nino pattern where guidance might be able to pick out these storms from 10 days out.  When dealing with the kinds of multiple interactions we are here its unlikely the final solution is known from as far out.   Reminds me of January 2000 when we knew the pattern was ripe but the guidance was keying on the wrong waves from range and we ended up getting a few nice storms but none of them was well resolved until the last minute.  Guidance has improved a LOT since then so I highly doubt we get any last second surprises like that but it wouldn't shock me to see something we previously "gave up on" sneak back up on us in the 3-5 day range.  But I think it would take monumental bad luck, even for us...to get through the coming 2 weeks without any meaningful snow.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

Ban anyone who starts a thread. Ban them if they mention a thread. Ban them if you think they are even thinking about starting a thread. 
 

And the first person who ponders “wonder when they’ll issue warnings” ban them for life.

Is a radio show acceptable? 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

On a plane now about to take off from Bali. It’s going to be a brutal 20 hours.  Back at IAD around 10am tomm

safe travels

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

Matches the op rather closely tbh

[NorthArlington101]

This is a nuts 24 hour mean for this range… jeez.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Hohoho bitches