December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[poolz1]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. 

Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from.  Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ensembles work by perturbing the intensity and location of features to account for errors and uncertainty. At D7-8, it’s perfectly normal to have a much broader area of low pressure than what will ultimately occur. Plus, always be a little more skeptical when a model suite’s solutions are playing up its biases:

1. Progressive bias for GFS

2. over amplified bias for Euro

3. wonky 2m temps for GGEM 

 

Hypothetically given these known biases wouldn’t the GGEM be the best model for this setup for the general progression? 

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period. 

Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? 

I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Would be pretty sweet considering the time of year and we would have a much better base state to start from.  Nothing in the NH needs major work and isn't a terrible look as it is. 

Things looking good moving into Jan.  PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active.   Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month.  EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds.  

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Hot damn. This checks all the boxes for big east coast winter storm.
 

Elongated PV toward the 50-50 region? Check.

-NAO in Baffin Island region? Check.

-AO? —-AO!

+PNA with inland ridge axis? Check.

Big shortwave diving south? Check.

 

Oooooo! I want to play too!!
 

Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Any signs of the "quit weather learn to macramé" signal noted yesterday with anomalous warmth even with a trough east/ridge west combo as mentioned by PSU? 

I did note the kind of positive-ish EPO.

Some advertised relaxation in the -EPO/WPO yes, but at the same time the PNA is going positive. Still an overall favorable look at day 15, and ofc that's way out there so we just can't know.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Oooooo! I want to play too!!
 

Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day. 

Not until you are told how it is by some rando from another sub. 

[poolz1]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Things looking good moving into Jan.  PV still under pressure even though it may temporarily get a little stronger. Scandi High and good support for a + PNA. Also looks active.   Exciting possibilities next week and later in the month.  EPS had some really deep members at this range for the 23 rd. Could be a rather intense cyclone along with very high winds.  

As other have noted this morn...it really does look ripe for a major storm.  I would love to start tracking something legit .

[aldie 22]

The 15th at 12z was always my date to start looking for real opportunities or for the "pattern" to not be real....gut feel is the 12z runs today show a nice hit or two in the near future

[WxUSAF]

Everyone needs to adopt the balanced, measured attitude and reasonable expectations of…*checks notes*… @leesburg 04?

[Bob Chill]

15 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

That was an amazing period ushered in by that nifty squall along the Arctic front on Feb. 14!

But there was another period that was pretty decent, too...Jan. 30-Feb. 10, 2010? 

(ETA:  I joke a bit of course, because everyone knows about 2009-10.  But in all seriousness you're right about us being streaky AF here, or so it seems.  Even that record-breaking 2009-10 winter was streaky:  amazing December that started early and then the HECS...followed by kind of "meh" late December through much of January...followed by that amazing 12 days from end of January into mid-February.)

I missed adding 2015 in that edit. Lol. 09-10 is the big dog grandaddy but there was a ton of dead space that winter even with obscene totals. Dec storm was almost written off 72 hours out. It wasn't a long track like the first Feb storm or Jan 2016.  Jan was rather frustrating until the lucky last minute north trend. From a tracking perspective I don't remember 09-10 being busy like the 13-15 stretch. Or Feb/Mar 2003. Those periods are what enthusiasts really thrive in.

Multiple threat threads for events with different synoptics is what I define as a heater. It's subjective of course. 13-15 stretch taught us a lot. We can snow from nearly any angle or setup that has a chance.... as long as a difficult to move cold dome is centered close by even if it's running away. Nobody can ever convince me that precip comes before cold because in my yard it certainly does not and when it accidentally does, it's gone before my coffee

Eta: once the artic front clears our area, it keeps the door open for some chances. Not none or one and done imo. If hl blocking follows a typical progression with a relax and reload it could crack the door open on a heater period with different setups or even a hostile west track dump. This is what I'm really focused on and why I have little to say leading into the first real cold. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

As other have noted this morn...it really does look ripe for a major storm.  I would love to start tracking something legit .

HM is onboard 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

And a better defined 50/50

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2nd edition weenie handbook...Chapter 33 Section 69 states "When the GFS has a storm off the coast while the other globals are hits, we say 'It's right where we want to see it for now'".

[mattie g]

52 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

The 15th at 12z was always my date to start looking for real opportunities or for the "pattern" to not be real....gut feel is the 12z runs today show a nice hit or two in the near future

When is our next 70F day?

[Bob Chill]

I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nino's so not elite but good company in general

 

Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before 

Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol

 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

When is our next 70F day?

tell you at 12z

[frd]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I found some old but very relevant attachments related to AO behavior. First off, assuming Dec AO comes in around -2, this Dec joins some good company. Gotta remove the Nina's so not elite but good company in general

 

Using the AO and enso as simple filters, it brings 2010-11, 2005-06. 2000-01, 1995-96, and 1985-86 to the front of the line. Here's how the daily AO graph played out for 2 of those years. If I can find the time I'll graph 05-06, 95-96 and 85-86 soon. They will be similar tho. I remember looking at this before 

Unsurprisingly, the 2 biggest storms those years came with a deeply negative AO moving towards neutral leading in. That seems to be a common theme with decent storms in non-nino years. Nino years don't care as much. Big block and southern stream is enough by itself. Lol

 

Nice comparison. Next week we follow the same general idea. Deeply negative - AO peaks shortly, maybe -4.25,  then moves slowly  back towards neutral next week.  

[frd]

Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, frd said:

Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

 

Not surprising this came on quick. HM has said in the past that PNA and EPO forecasting beyond D7 isn't as reliable as the AO/NAO. 

[Bob Chill]

22 minutes ago, frd said:

Amazing how quickly the + PNA forecast came about.  Today it appears even more positive for next week versus yesterday.  HM feels the + PNA signal is real.  

I believe we want a more significant+ PNA next week to drive our disturbance South.  The snowier and more favorable EPS clusters have a more pronounced+ PNA.  

It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. 

An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. 

Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol

[Steve25]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's very common to get all ridgy and bluebirdy out west after a long storm cycle in Nina December's. It can be very persistent before breaking down. I hated this cycle when I lived out west. We don't remember this much here though because a Dec +pna pattern in the MA during a Nina is cold front or rain, 3 cold days, repeat. 

An anomalous blocking period changes this. How much for the better is hard to say with confidence. Previous Dec threats with similar longwave patterns still didn't do well. We almost never get big snow in Dec for real reasons and not bad luck. You almost have to root against a big wind up no matter the track. 

Imo only, the "easiest" way to get a foot of snow out of the upcoming pattern is back to back weakish waves running more horizontal than vertical. The proverbial train tracks and hose. When things wind up it becomes way too easy to inhale the wrong kind of air anywhere east of the blue ridge lol

If I'm reading this correctly, is it reasonable to say we shouldn't have any real hopes for a significant snow event out of this potential for next week? If so, what type of trend for this potential should I be pulling for on the models in the coming days that you would say would lead to the most realistic shot of any type of accumulating snow, for the period around next Friday?

[WeatherShak]

Me “ working”





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[H2O]

I'm so proud of you

[North Balti Zen]

"that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?"

[baltosquid]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

"that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?"

We cannot afford a blocking gap!

[poolz1]

This won't be a 06z type run.  Looking ripe...

[LP08]

PNA Ridge looking sharper through 150...

[H2O]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

"that's all fine and well, General, but are you aware of the potential if a piece of the PV gets caught under the block?"

General: "we have to have precip first, son.  Now tell me how we can shoot it if it has sinister intentions."