Jersey Andrew Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Normal high/low the last week of December is like 45/28? Gives a mean daily temp of 36ish. So 25F off that is mean daily temp of 11F. I’ll take the over. Was Christmas 1983 the lowest December mean daily temp in DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, mappy said: It wouldn’t be a Christmas tradition if it’s not 60-70° Pepperidge farms remembers running the a/c just a few years ago on Xmas day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Don't like coldest anomalies over us. Probably means dry also. But when it starts to moderate look out. People will likely take that as kicking the can if we do go cold/dry which in actuality it is not. It's a practice in patience. Those that have been here for a while know these are the risks we take. Get the cold in place....thats always phase 1. We will accomplish that portion it seems certain. Eta: by no means am i punting next week whatsoever. Just replying to the op topic re: coldest anomalies post christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But when it starts to moderate look out. People will likely take that as kicking the can if we do go cold/dry which in actuality it is not. It's a practice in patience. Those that have been here for a while know these are the risks we take. Get the cold in place....thats always phase 1. We will accomplish that portion it seems certain. Phase 1: Establish Cold Phase 2:... Phase 3:... PROFIT...er I mean SNOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Was Christmas 1983 the lowest December mean daily temp in DC?I was born on that day and remember my father telling me how cold and snowy it was. Even the following week. He said it was rough driving me home. I miss him. . 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Quite impressive how this huge blob misses us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Quite impressive how this huge blob misses us Time for your famous - "We are too far north, south or east for good snows" quote! (Maybe the east is not in that!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Time for your famous - "We are too far north, south or east for good snows" quote! (Maybe the east is not in that!) Oh yea Too North for southern slidersToo south for miller bs or just winter weather in general lolToo west for nina coastals(congrats cape)Too east for clippes 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 If you think that is bad the next one is a heart breaker…wall of high pressure in Canada and we go to rain on Xmas eve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 If you think that is bad the next one is a heart breaker…wall of high pressure in Canada and we go to rain on Xmas eveStorm covers like 70% of country. We suck 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If you think that is bad the next one is a heart breaker…wall of high pressure in Canada and we go to rain on Xmas eve 13 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: If you think that is bad the next one is a heart breaker…wall of high pressure in Canada and we go to rain on Xmas eve Storm covers like 70% of country. We suck Why are you all doing this to yourselves? Like real talk...help me understand...Why torture yourselves with OP runs at D8+?? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Why are you all doing this to yourselves? Like real talk...help me understand...Why torture yourselves with OP runs at D8+?? Because non snow always verifies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Lmao. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why are you all doing this to yourselves? Like real talk...help me understand...Why torture yourselves with OP runs at D8+?? Because non snow always verifies Not always. And when it does...why you torturing yourself 300+ hrs ahead of time? And then when we DO get snow, you're still not satisfied, lol So again...why do you torture yourself? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z GEFS depicts a pretty favorable window for snowfall from the 20th-24th. Seems to be a few members that followed the OP which would explain some of the greater westward totals, so definitely not as much of a sign of suppression on these panels. What I like to see is the appearance of a low pressure system in the 50/50 region as per the GEFS mean, it looks like that's been picked up on the recent ensemble runs. PNA begins to spike during this timeframe as well, so the teleconnections definitely bode well for a train of systems during the week leading up to and after Christmas. EPS quite likes an idea of a 22nd-24th event as well. +PNA popping and -AO nearing -5 would make me somewhat hopeful for this window. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 WB OZ EPS. Christmas will be cold. No rain. Snow chances increasing on 10 day mean. 5 day 500 MB impressive. Details for next week TBD as others have said once this weeks storm clears out. Have to like our chances. Still in the game. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The first chance of something trackable is early/mid next week as the trough digs underneath the sprawling Upper ridging across Canada. A wave off the Pacific takes the southern route underneath the PNA ridge. A lot of ways this could play out depending on the timing/location of the main features, but there is a path for a modest event. Here is the wave on the GEFS- The location/timing/orientation of the trough allows the wave to stay more intact on the GEFS depiction with a chance it can gain some latitude as the trough initially digs a bit more westward. Euro/EPS shears it out under the NS vortex. Beyond that it still looks something more significant may transpire around Christmas. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then. Why does it appear on the extended models that each potential event or low pressure system seems to scoot along fairly quick? I thought, perhaps in error, that the blocking causes systems to slow down and amplify. The system at hour 252 on GFS, for example, just keeps on trucking through seemingly plowing through strong highs to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Why does it appear on the extended models that each potential event or low pressure system seems to scoot along fairly quick? I thought, perhaps in error, that the blocking causes systems to slow down and amplify. The system at hour 252 on GFS, for example, just keeps on trucking through seemingly plowing through strong highs to the north. Having a -NAO does not always equal a block. A true sustained block in the atmosphere at h5 features a persistent dipole(upper low and high, ideally cutoff from the main flow). My more practical gauge is to see how lows(upper level vortices) behave as they progress eastward into the 50-50 region. If they essentially zoom through there and up into the NA, that's not a block imo. Not to say that situation isn't useful, but it is more indicative of a progressive flow and timing is critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Having a -NAO does not always equal a block. A true sustained block in the atmosphere at h5 features a persistent dipole(upper low and high, ideally cutoff from the main flow). My more practical gauge is to see how lows(upper level vortices) behave as they progress eastward into the 50-50 region. If they essentially zoom through there and up into the NA, that's not a block imo. Not to say that situation isn't useful, but it still is more of a progressive flow and timing is critical. thanks that makes sense. the term blocking is thrown around a lot...for the novice you hear blocking and think we are in business. the best example of blocking, in my head, would be a long duration overrunning event where we are on the right side of it and it spits out frozen for days....that would be fun. my point last night was we see some of these fantasy range systems cutting into 1040-1050 highs without much resistance...at least on the long range models. if we had true block with highs locked in over NE this would at least push back and lock the cold in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The strongest indication for an event across guidance within our upcoming 'favorable window' is currently late next week into the weekend. As @Cobaltmentioned in his post, there is a pretty nice signal on the EPS. CMC ens holds the main trough and core of the cold back a bit, with some ridging out in front, and indicates a more messy looking scenario with initial low tracking NW. The timing is somewhat different. Weaker signal on the GEFS, but it is there, and it looks more like the EPS with a broader trough and initial colder air mass in place. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: thanks that makes sense. the term blocking is thrown around a lot...for the novice you hear blocking and think we are in business. the best example of blocking, in my head, would be a long duration overrunning event where we are on the right side of it and it spits out frozen for days....that would be fun. my point last night was we see some of these fantasy range systems cutting into 1040-1050 highs without much resistance...at least on the long range models. if we had true block with highs locked in over NE this would at least push back and lock the cold in longer. Looking at H5, it looks like the "block" is oriented east/west as opposed to north/south which delays that primary lp from scooting away and allowing moisture to come up the coast after this upcoming event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: For perspective, the last -20F or greater wintertime (DJFM) departure at BWI was Jan 31, 2019. We've had MANY +20F days in DJFM since then. Shocked to hear that coming from you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 CMC says happy Christmas Eve Eve 7 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^GFS say happy bend over and take it up the tailpipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2022 Author Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^GFS say happy bend over and take it up the tailpipe When it comes to arctic PVs phasing into giant storms, the Canadians should obviously be better equipped to model that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^GFS say happy bend over and take it up the tailpipe Cold however. There will be nip in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 LOL, it would probably be ripping 3-4 inches an hour in that deform band sitting over a good number of us. To dream! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: When it comes to arctic PVs phasing into giant storms, the Canadians should obviously be better equipped to model that Considering the time range and all the noise between now and then that needs sorting out, the Gfs was pretty close to the same solution as the cmc. Yea I get that for many here the fact one is wet and the other 2 feet of snow is lol but synoptically a slightly colder antecedent airmass in front, slightly less amplified primary, and the Gfs would have been the cmc solution. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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