SnowenOutThere Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Mix to Ice deal for us and the CMC is setting up another cutter for Christmas week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:44 PM, mattie g said: But it finds a way to get a storm rolling in Texas/the Gulf at nearly the same time as it did yesterday. Good patterns somehow find a way... Expand It just likes to snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:37 PM, mattie g said: 12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. Expand Thought this week's storm was bringin' the cold air in, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Miller A icefest. Somehow I don't think it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 And then it rains on us for Christmas. That's more likely. Basically it does the same thing as 18z yesterday, except it's 24 hours later and without the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:53 PM, mattie g said: And then it rains on us for Christmas. That's more likely. Basically it does the same thing as 18z yesterday, except it's 24 hours later and without the snow. Expand We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Sadly seems to be the way storms have gone the last few years. We get cold but then storms just cut right up On 12/12/2022 at 4:51 PM, mattie g said: Miller A icefest. Somehow I don't think it goes down like that. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:58 PM, WxUSAF said: We miss our snow map pr0n, but I’m perfectly fine just seeing storm potential when it’s D12+. Expand I need Christmas purrn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:45 PM, mattie g said: Unless that thing gets squashed, then Amity is in for a smashing. Expand The horror ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I'd take my chances with Miller As coming out of the south at the end of December. Like the gfs is showing 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 4:37 PM, mattie g said: 12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close. Expand Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 6:08 PM, Bob Chill said: Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now Expand sounds like the redskins offensive line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, Amped said: I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. Expand yes but too far east and we are toast with having the storm track miss with and hit the fish...never easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 6:08 PM, Bob Chill said: Look at the gfs op h5 NH loop. The big Midwest low rolls thru the 50/50 area and squirts out from under the block. Allows things to amplify and get messy upstream. This part of progression will be easy to track in 4 days or so. It's very important as is the spacing but it's just guessing for now Expand I was looking at that, and I could tell that something was amiss, but I honestly don't have the skillz to really identify - and especially explain - the hows and whys things happen the way they do. I found it interesting that there were two storms nearly back to back, whereas previous runs squashed that initial wave. Again...I think I know why that happened, but my explanation would probably suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 6:37 PM, Amped said: I don't like this new Idea if bringing the arctic air down further west. It means some of the long range cold maybe a bust for the east coast. Expand I'm really surprised that you're taking the pessimistic route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:02 PM, CAPE said: Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. It's only fun when it's on the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 WB GEFS, on queue, prob maps are good!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 6:31 PM, Ji said: euro dosent seem too interested Expand Euro, that’s the model that showed me getting 24” of snow 48hrs ago right… lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2022 Author Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:02 PM, CAPE said: Looking through the p-type panels for the GEFS members, pretty active period between Dec 22-28. I am sure WW will be along shortly to post the mean snow map for the 7 days ending on the 28th. Expand All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning sign, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:05 PM, Weather Will said: WB GEFS, on queue, prob maps are good!!! Expand Some of that for the NW areas is for the late week deal, which we know is going to be slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:10 PM, WxUSAF said: All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning side, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week. Expand My issue is that it showed another cutter before that one, I have never been on the pattern cancel train but it's upsetting to have it "delayed" again according to this one run. That said its just one Euro and CMC run but if it comes true I'll be slightly upset. How likely do you think it is that we get another cutter after this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:13 PM, CAPE said: Some of that for the NW areas is for the late week deal, which we know is going to be slop. Expand WB GEFS mean last 7 days of run. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:10 PM, WxUSAF said: All sorts of action today and end of euro run is like a “Buy milk and TP!” warning sign, but we’re at a low point If this is a low point, than I’m more excited for next week. Expand Gonna deb for a sec but end of model runs are always pants tent. What we need is something solid inside of 10 days. The ghost of Snowmas future shows wonderful things. The ghost of Snowmas past are all these analogs saying ghost of future is right. Meanwhile in ghost of present land we are barely hanging on like Tiny Ji. All crippled, losing FB fans and outlook is bleak. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:22 PM, Weather Will said: Expand I actually predicted that this is what you would post right before you posted the snow probs and total snow map lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:25 PM, CAPE said: I actually predicted that this is what you would post right before you posted the snow probs and total snow map lol. Expand Need a predictive model for Will’s posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Whats happening here? Im at work so just briefly looked at the euro, cmc, and gfs (maybe i peeked at the jma too) and things look darn good/active for next week. I pop in banter and Ji says no blue, and talks of suppression about and Nina being Nina and no hope. Oh wait, i forgot that was normal. Ok cool, sorry to clog the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:26 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Need a predictive model for Will’s posts Expand He is pretty steady with posting the snow maps, so probably not needed lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/12/2022 at 7:25 PM, CAPE said: I actually predicted that this is what you would post right before you posted the snow probs and total snow map lol. Expand I saw it!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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