Scraff Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, poolz1 said: Cheers my friend! Class of 2000... Showing my age! lol Ummmmm. I’d be THRILLED if I was 2000! December 92 for me. Anyway—good to know I’m not the only EER in here. Now back to tracking our epic pattern… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I remember all the hits too, unfortunately that’s a much smaller list. I’m lucky to have a good memory. Secret is I never studied and I’m not that smart…I just remember everything. I do think there is value in knowing how we’ve failed though. I can’t remember a damn thing, but I’m pretty f’ing smart. I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: @AtlanticWx and @DarkSharkWX, appreciate your contributions as new members I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Excellent new blood! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 This pattern definitely looks favorable, but how does it compare to the biggest Decembers around here? Below is a plot of the mean snow-to-date climatologically in December from 1980-2021, along with the mean snow-to-date from the top 25% and bottom 25% Decembers snowfall-wise here in DC. Out of those top 25 Decembers snowfall-wise, here are the H5 anomalies plotted on the Northern Hemisphere for each of them. The key similarities to our upcoming pattern and the top 25% Decembers' average pattern around here are troughing near Hawaii/the Aleutians, a cutoff ridge north of AK and ridge bridging in the Arctic (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) and the elephant in the room -- lower heights over the EC. Below is a composite plot of the 250mb plots in these same years (do note that they are smoothed out since they're for the entire month, but you can still make out two key features): The two key features here are an active STJ and what seems to be a Pacific jet extension, which promotes a +PNA if I remember correctly. Our upcoming pattern seems to have an active STJ and a jet extension too, which is why we are expected to see a +PNA of some sorts during this pattern. Overall, our pattern has key similarities to some other patterns of conducive Decembers, snowfall-wise. 20 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Me, Dec. 1: I'll hit the road to WY as soon as there are three consecutive decent driving days weather-wise, since there's never much snow in the DMV in December. Me, post-18Z: Or.... (am going to enjoy watching the big blizzard heading to the northern plains tomorrow in the meantime, though!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was up in PA that one winter and got 14” but where I am now got 23” according to the coop down the street. That's right! I recorded 24 for the 2 part event. 16 inches with the heavy snow overnight into the morning. Then 1st part ended as some drizzle/ mist. Part 2 was very heavy snow for several hours that evening resulting in 8 more inches. Pretty sure this area bulleyed part 2. If I remember correctly losetoa6 got roughly only 4 inches compared to the 8 here. Sharp cutoff just west of Westminster and just east of the Baltimore/ Carroll county line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: This pattern definitely looks favorable, but how does it compare to the biggest Decembers around here? Below is a plot of the mean snow-to-date climatologically in December from 1980-2021, along with the mean snow-to-date from the top 25% and bottom 25% Decembers snowfall-wise here in DC. Out of those top 25 Decembers snowfall-wise, here are the H5 anomalies plotted on the Northern Hemisphere for each of them. The key similarities to our upcoming pattern and the top 25% Decembers' average pattern around here are troughing near Hawaii/the Aleutians, a cutoff ridge north of AK and ridge bridging in the Arctic (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) and the elephant in the room -- lower heights over the EC. Below is a composite plot of the 250mb plots in these same years (do note that they are smoothed out since they're for the entire month, but you can still make out two key features): The two key features here are an active STJ and what seems to be a Pacific jet extension, which promotes a +PNA if I remember correctly. Our upcoming pattern seems to have an active STJ and a jet extension too, which is why we are expected to see a +PNA of some sorts during this pattern. Overall, our pattern has key similarities to some other patterns of conducive Decembers, snowfall-wise. Fantastic post. Also easy for dummies like me to comprehend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 That's right! I recorded 24 for the 2 part event. 16 inches with the heavy snow overnight into the morning. Then 1st part ended as some drizzle/ mist. Part 2 was very heavy snow for several hours that evening resulting in 8 more inches. Pretty sure this area bulleyed part 2. If I remember correctly losetoa6 got roughly only 4 inches compared to the 8 here. Sharp cutoff just west of Westminster and just east of the Baltimore/ Carroll county line.I remember having that same experience in southern York county, PA. Amazing two part storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Finally in NAM range. It’s icy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Finally in NAM range. It’s icy That ought to be a fun Thursday morning commute. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: This pattern definitely looks favorable, but how does it compare to the biggest Decembers around here? Below is a plot of the mean snow-to-date climatologically in December from 1980-2021, along with the mean snow-to-date from the top 25% and bottom 25% Decembers snowfall-wise here in DC. Out of those top 25 Decembers snowfall-wise, here are the H5 anomalies plotted on the Northern Hemisphere for each of them. The key similarities to our upcoming pattern and the top 25% Decembers' average pattern around here are troughing near Hawaii/the Aleutians, a cutoff ridge north of AK and ridge bridging in the Arctic (-EPO/-AO/-NAO) and the elephant in the room -- lower heights over the EC. Below is a composite plot of the 250mb plots in these same years (do note that they are smoothed out since they're for the entire month, but you can still make out two key features): The two key features here are an active STJ and what seems to be a Pacific jet extension, which promotes a +PNA if I remember correctly. Our upcoming pattern seems to have an active STJ and a jet extension too, which is why we are expected to see a +PNA of some sorts during this pattern. Overall, our pattern has key similarities to some other patterns of conducive Decembers, snowfall-wise. Thanks for the breakdown! Question: When looking at H5 stuff...how do you identify an active STJ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: That ought to be a fun Thursday morning commute. . That’ll be low impact based on temps for many. Barely 32. Maybe some wet ice on trees. We all know ZR above 30 is weak sauce. My 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, HighStakes said: That's right! I recorded 24 for the 2 part event. 16 inches with the heavy snow overnight into the morning. Then 1st part ended as some drizzle/ mist. Part 2 was very heavy snow for several hours that evening resulting in 8 more inches. Pretty sure this area bulleyed part 2. If I remember correctly losetoa6 got roughly only 4 inches compared to the 8 here. Sharp cutoff just west of Westminster and just east of the Baltimore/ Carroll county line. Yep, there was 23" in Media Delaware County storm total just 13 miles southwest of Philadelphia International Airport. What was amazing to me was the very heavy snow with winds out of the west blowing 35-50 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That’ll be low impact based on temps for many. Barely 32. Maybe some wet ice on trees. We all know ZR above 30 is weak sauce. My 2 cents. Shows 29-30 in NW cities at night so it’ll get icy if true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Great stuff in this tread today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thanks for the breakdown! Question: When looking at H5 stuff...how do you identify an active STJ? No problem! STJs are visible on 250mb wind speed plots, and usually they're identified by stronger winds in the SE winds, and while this plot does smooth out the mean wind speed since it's a monthly composite, you can generally see stronger winds south of us, indicating an active STJ (sub-tropical jet). 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 my 10pm news is model hugging some model thats pushing rain all the way north into upstate ny state into canada? but yet still seeing strong blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Well, I would take that run for sure! LOL! New runs every run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS has the ULL negatilt earlier this run with a further west TPV and more western ridging leading to a colder solution(SFC ptype map just used to show that GFS has colder solution) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS brings in precip in the overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday between 1a-4a. DPs in the teens across the area / temps in the upper 20s to low 30s, with a mixed bag of precip including freezing rain, sleet, and snow. this run is definitely more favorable to frozen precip in the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Nice nudge south on the 0z for Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 We probably need a thread for Thursday since it’s in the MR and this can stay focused on the upcoming pattern and potential for threats around Christmas. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Getting close again for the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 That’s a pretty good shift on the GFS to more frozen across the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Maybe we can just revert back to the other days runs where it blasted us? lol if only. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Maybe we can just revert back to the other days runs where it blasted us? lol if only. Two more runs shift south and east and boom! Bob's your uncle! (OK - I watched Spirited! SO GOOD) I am not talking to you @Bob Chill - unless you can make it snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Started a thread for the Thursday/Friday deal since we’re ~78H from precip onset for parts of the forum. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 GFS vodka cold behind late week system and really cold few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Incoming on the GFS for the 23rd again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Incoming on the GFS for the 23rd again. Some crappy little Ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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