December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

D10 setup on gfs/euro isn't all that different than how we got snow in Dec/Jan 2013-14.  It's also a way to hit a little hot streak. Too progressive for a big storm but not a couple small ones lol

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Gotta love that 2009! LFG!!

It is a very similar look.  In 2009 eventually a piece of the TPV did drop in and phase while there was a 50/50 in the way to prevent a cutter. But keep in mind it took a while. We had a cutter and a sheared wave after that date before finally getting the win.  Great setup doesn’t mean “next wave is definitely a big snow”. Even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit. 

[George BM]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It is a very similar look.  In 2009 eventually a piece of the TPV did drop in and phase while there was a 50/50 in the way to prevent a cutter. But keep in mind it took a while. We had a cutter and a sheared wave after that date before finally getting the win.  Great setup doesn’t mean “next wave is definitely a big snow”. Even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit. 

I've noticed that the data from CPC analogs apparently only goes through 2009. Do you or anyone in here know where can I find analogs from 2010 onwards?

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s trending more negative day 10-15 than guidance showed it previously. Not more negative than the -4 stdv it is now. We don’t need the AO to be -4 to snow. 

Agreed,  that was my point. Certainly appears we are entering a long duration negative AO regime. This will also be the first December in many years where the robust snow cover extent in North America didn't go poof after December 20th. A healthy cryosphere, a good sign. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

D10 setup isn't all that different than how we got snow in Dec/Jan 2013-14.  It's also a way to hit a little hot streak. Too progressive for a big storm but not a couple small ones lol

IIRC, that year we had the -EPO rocking, but also a super ++NAO much of the time as long as the pERleR VerTeX didn’t pay us a visit. So that could give us more space for storms to slow down.

[BristowWx]

17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

D10 setup on gfs/euro isn't all that different than how we got snow in Dec/Jan 2013-14.  It's also a way to hit a little hot streak. Too progressive for a big storm but not a couple small ones lol

With the -NAO/AO why is it progressive?  I thought those indices make it not progressive and allow storms to amplify and slowdown. 

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

No it's not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/confidentlyincorrect/

[IronTy]

There's frogs still active in my pond and it's almost January.  Can we get this shit on the road for crying out loud?  

[anotherman]

There's frogs still active in my pond and it's almost January.  Can we get this shit on the road for crying out loud?  

I’m in Pennsylvania and the grass still looks like it’s September.

[BristowWx]

Just now, IronTy said:

There's frogs still active in my pond and it's almost January.  Can we get this shit on the road for crying out loud?  

Oh it’s coming.   Don’t you fret shits gettin real now…real…shit…real….I got nothing 

[IronTy]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Oh it’s coming.   Don’t you fret shits gettin real now…real…shit…real….I got nothing 

Drinkin' again, eh?

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I’m in Pennsylvania and the grass still looks like it’s September.

I'm about to get the mower out, with the leaves having dropped the lawn gets much more sun and it grows much better.   

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

IIRC, that year we had the -EPO rocking, but also a super ++NAO much of the time as long as the pERleR VerTeX didn’t pay us a visit. So that could give us more space for storms to slow down.

It was a wild stretch. The tpv acted like a block when we needed it. Set the lanes up just right underneath. 

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

With the -NAO/AO why is it progressive?  I thought those indices make it not progressive and allow storms to amplify and slowdown. 

With a nasty tpv drop like that, effective blocking will happen north of us. Flow will always be fast underneath a big tpv. I'm just calling what I see. I'd prefer less amplification and more blockification but hard to be picky at all rn

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Drinkin' again, eh?

Yeah.  

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah.  

Jealous.  I'm hanging wallpaper.  

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Jealous.  I'm hanging wallpaper.  

Sorry.  Hate wallpaper it sucks.  Just pay the guy and grab the egg nog…it’s practically snowing outside…haven’t seen storm mode in a long time.  Let’s pray we see it someday

[Solution Man]

57 minutes ago, IronTy said:

There's frogs still active in my pond and it's almost January.  Can we get this shit on the road for crying out loud?  

Just got bit by a mosquito hanging lights

[WEATHER53]

We had the first no show as predicted Friday so let’s hope upcoming event does not defer or the “delayed but….” pattern  will be underway. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It is a very similar look.  In 2009 eventually a piece of the TPV did drop in and phase while there was a 50/50 in the way to prevent a cutter. But keep in mind it took a while. We had a cutter and a sheared wave after that date before finally getting the win.  Great setup doesn’t mean “next wave is definitely a big snow”. Even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit. 

I would disagree experientially that “even in our best patterns we often need multiple chances before we get a hit”

In our best patterns it snows just about every time it can . When we are speaking of multiple misses beforehand we are mostly In trouble 

[nj2va]

18z GFS better upslope setup for the mountains after the initial ice storm.  

[DarkSharkWX]

GFS slightly better this run with what appears to be a further west TPV, less weakness in the heights over Canada, and weaker ridging over Great Lakes/OH Valley.

[IronTy]

13 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Just got bit by a mosquito hanging lights

It's over 

[TSSN+]

All the hope for a great pattern and we ain’t going to see one flake are we? Lol. But seriously come on snow we need you. 

[nj2va]

GFS setting something up for the 23.  50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.

[Buddy1987]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS setting something up for the 23.  50/50 low, 1043 HP over Canada, system developing in the south.

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 
 

TT only goes out to 240 for Euro. Did it show the 23rd as well? 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 

Gonna be very impressive 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Really been keying in on that for at least several runs. One hell of a HP as well. 

The HP was actually strengthening as it was dropping south, too.  

Christmas-eve-eve snow breaking out in DC Friday morning.  Moderate to heavy snow Friday afternoon.  

Yes, I’m doing PBP on a 280H+ run of the GFS OP. 

ETA:  NS vort dropping down from the plains creates a low in the Great Lakes.  GFS eventually has a low in the gulf, low off the Jersey coast, and a low in the Great Lakes.  A window to certainly keep an eye on. 

[clskinsfan]

The Happy Hour GFS delivers. What a weenie run for the holiday week. We get smoked twice. Including on Christmas day. 

[IronTy]

Even Benson is bored of this shit weather pattern and he eats poop on the regular.  

[frd]

 

 

Well, this is a great thread by Allan where he provides composites of the 500 mb anomalies and surface tempertures based on the CPC super ensembles then rolled them forward 5 days from Dec 22 nd  to Dec 27 th and then another 5 days centered on 1/1/23.  Wow !!!  HM chimes in at the end.