aldie 22 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:09 AM, BristowWx said: Ok. I will worry for the both of us. Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern. Maybe somewhere in the middle. Expand I was counting on you to win my bet...you're almost there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:10 AM, clskinsfan said: It is struggling with the block I think. Expand Yes agreed. You are level headed always so if you think we headed into an absolutely epic set up then I give that some merit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:12 AM, leesburg 04 said: I was counting on you to win my bet...you're almost there. Expand What bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:55 AM, BristowWx said: Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS. Looking good. Expand ?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:14 AM, Chris78 said: ?? Expand 2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:10 AM, clskinsfan said: It is struggling with the block I think. Expand Yeah the fact that it jumped rather wildly with the first threat tells ya it ain't sure, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:20 AM, BristowWx said: 2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day Expand But that's not room temperature hot chocolate either, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:20 AM, BristowWx said: 2m temp anomaly 23rd Xmas Eve and Xmas day Expand I wouldn't sweat it too much. Mean Temps are in the 30s to lower 40s for those 3 days. Atleast on the 18z GEFS Would be a nice change from the recent run of 50s and 60s it seems we have every year on Christmas day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 WB 18Z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:35 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS Expand Ya I’ll take that one 967 offshore thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:14 AM, Chris78 said: ?? Expand Eff, I'd take that in a heartbeat over the balmy, South Florida weather we've had at Christmas lately 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Mid-30s and not 50 on Christmas Day? Hell, yes. Take a pill everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:14 AM, Chris78 said: ?? Expand That's actually BN for my area, at least for a high. Maybe there are warm nights due to cloud cover? Edit: By the way I realize that I am a guest in this forum and the anomalies in Wilson NC is of little to no interest to most of you. But doesn't look too bad up in the heart of the you guys' area: mid to upper 30s in the urban areas, maybe lower 30s in the outlying areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:35 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EPS Expand Slow bleed N+W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Why are we looking at and freaking out over what 18z GFS shows lmao, one OP going way out. By that logic, we should worry about every single fantasy snowstorm ever! The pattern looks great going into Christmas and maybe into January, not really any cause for concern rn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 The 18z run shows the primary pettering out in Iowa and reappears around Wilmington NC. Isn,'t that a somewhat outlier redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:56 PM, Wonderdog said: Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. Expand Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:09 AM, clskinsfan said: Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading. Expand Totally agree. I'm not going to get worked up over this event later next week. My focus is more on mid-month and beyond, and hopefully this advertised pattern that looks awesome gets us something by the end of the month. By the way, clskinsfan...off the wall question that I have been meaning to ask. I've always liked your icon photo of the car with the mound of snow on the roof! Where did you get that or what's it from? It kind of reminds me of being in northeast Ohio, when I'd see all these people from the main snowbelt areas driving by with a similar mound of snow on their cars. Almost as if they were showing off!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:37 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Totally agree. I'm not going to get worked up over this event later next week. My focus is more on mid-month and beyond, and hopefully this advertised pattern that looks awesome gets us something by the end of the month. By the way, clskinsfan...off the wall question that I have been meaning to ask. I've always liked your icon photo of the car with the mound of snow on the roof! Where did you get that or what's it from? It kind of reminds me of being in northeast Ohio, when I'd see all these people from the main snowbelt areas driving by with a similar mound of snow on their cars. Almost as if they were showing off!! Expand They probably call it a snow crown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:34 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm. Expand What does it mean to say that the primary is "rotting"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:46 AM, cbmclean said: What does it mean to say that the primary is "rotting"? Expand Dying....weakening...stationary and just "rotting" away. Transferring it's energy to the newly developing low near coastal NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:34 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure how many times it has been posted, but it isnt the track. It is a primary rotting 800-900 miles NW of the redevelping low. It isnt a rapid jump either so you get a SE flow at mid levels for some 800+ miles. That is going to roast the mids, that is meteo 101 stuff. You dont have rapid redevelopment and bombogenesis happening. We have been down this road numerous times in recent years (not this exact setup) where we get a perfect storm track but the antecedent airmass is stale and it rains. Hopefully most places can at least some frozen for the first time this season. Interior elevations should feel pretty good attm. Expand What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 3:06 AM, Wonderdog said: What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track? Expand Sure, thats a more typical miller b (is that what we r categorizing this as?) scenario ie TN Valley. But for the lowlands, where is the antecedent cold air source that we require? The quasi 50/50 can only do so much with what it has to work with. We are relying on an almost perfect situation where the system either bombs out and becomes dynamics-driven to help those near the fall line. Im not forecasting 33 and rain for everyone. Im actually pretty optimistic that many places see their first frozen of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 2:37 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: Where did you get that or what's it from? Expand No frikin clue man. I think typed "huge snow" into google a decade ago and that is what came up. Cant change it now. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 3:06 AM, Wonderdog said: What if it rotted say in Arkansas or maybe TN? Wouldn't that.make a difference in the coastal track? Expand Absolutely. And that is the crutch of this hobby. Everyone here knows so much more than your family and friends. Because we take time out of our lives to look at maps and think or prophesize about what could happen if this was here or that was there. I use anything on the models outside of day 3 as a chess piece on a huge frikin chess board. The winning pieces are there this year. Which is way beyond what we could say the past two Decembers. Just have to remember that that no matter how good your game is you can still lose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 3:15 AM, clskinsfan said: No frikin clue man. I think typed "huge snow" into google a decade ago and that is what came up. Cant change it now. Expand LOL! Fair enough, was just curious. Like I said it just reminded me of seeing cars come by from places like Ashtabula or Chardon Ohio after a lake effect snow, as if they came from another world! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Another run of big changes at H5 hr 102 on GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Shocking the GFS with a new solution 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 4:06 AM, TSSN+ said: Shocking the GFS with a new solution Expand Man it's been turrible, just turrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Well that was a different run than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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