nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 10:59 PM, nj2va said: I haven’t looked into the individuals members yet but MSLP redevelops over NC as coastal takes over. Should be some hits in the mix based on this. Expand Unfortunately, no good hits lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 OP with two ensembles on it's side, are you feeling lucky punk? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I didn't even know it was rain. We average 3" of snow in December, so that's important to remember.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 I have nothing useful to add except that It’s so good to be tracking storms again with this crew. Glad to see that people haven’t changed over the past year. I’m always the optimist when it comes to snow storms, so I’m happy for something to track the next 2 weeks and hopefully more to come in the New Year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:04 PM, AtlanticWx said: Unfortunately, no good hits lmao Expand Lol. I would of thought with the mean track it would of looked better than that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:18 PM, Chris78 said: Lol. I would have thought with the mean track it would have looked better than that. Expand Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 8:44 PM, anotherman said: Between Ji and his new understudy you’d think we were on the verge of 60s through the end of the year. Expand I must have blocked them both. Because I have seen none of it. If you told me in September that I would be looking at that -NAO block in December I would have chugged a bottle of Crown. Give me a DEC -NAO and I will take my chances the rest of the winter. And I dont care about base states or anything else. My personal experience is a cold -NAO December leads to happiness for my area the rest of the winter. The rest of you? I dont really care. But it is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:23 PM, AtlanticWx said: Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Expand Does it? Have we ever gotten a good storm with a low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes before it redevelops off the coast? That's just way too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:26 PM, osfan24 said: Does it? Have we ever gotten a good storm with a low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes before it redevelops off the coast? That's just way too far north. Expand I'm talking about the position of the secondary low, not the primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 How about the wave after this one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:44 PM, Maestrobjwa said: How about the wave after this one? Expand How about the drink after this one!? Oh whoops. Wrong thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:23 PM, AtlanticWx said: Same, the track looks great. Just need cold Expand Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:56 PM, Wonderdog said: Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. Expand Probably to trend worse. Terrible setup. The trend was a little less terrible but we need leaps better and the changes from here on out are likely to be warmer and to the north. I hope I am somehow wrong. This has always been unlikely and continues to show us how it can fail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Lows in the bay don’t happen much in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/10/2022 at 11:56 PM, Wonderdog said: Track sucks. Needs to redevelop further south. Still time. Expand I just clicked through the 18z for laughs…really nothing at all. Not even fun fantasy storms. You’d never know it might get good soon looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Americanwx: Bipolar anonymous. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:37 AM, BristowWx said: I just clicked through the 18z for laughs…really nothing at all. Not even fun fantasy storms. You’d never know it might get good soon looking at that. Expand It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:41 AM, Maestrobjwa said: It does seem to be a wave behind this one...didn't make it far enough north this run, but was north of 12z. Day 9/10 of course...I think we'll see some more waves come through. Doesn't SEEM to be cold/dry overall. Expand Way out there but it has Xmas Eve in the 60s on the op…2m temp anomaly is white hot. Need to look at GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:39 AM, TSSN+ said: Americanwx: Bipolar anonymous. Expand I think a solid hit of snow will do the psychology here a lot of good. Been a loooooong time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:52 AM, BristowWx said: Way out there but it has Xmas Eve in the 60s on the op…2m temp anomaly is white hot. Need to look at GEFS Expand Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:55 AM, BristowWx said: Yellow orange hot 2m on GEFS. Looking good. Expand Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:59 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that rangeGefs has really never bought this pattern change 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:59 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Hr 354...lol I have a hard time seeing it being that warm given the pattern we're heading into. Not worth looking that deep into at that range Expand Yeah but it’s still worth keeping an eye on. You would think the GEFS would at least show some idea of BN temps. Guess we will see how it evolves. I know we don’t want vodka cold for snow chances but not room temp hot chocolate either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 12:52 AM, Maestrobjwa said: I think a solid hit of snow will do the psychology here a lot of good. Been a loooooong time Expand Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:08 AM, Maestrobjwa said: To keep half an eye on but not worry about Expand Ok. I will worry for the both of us. Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern. Maybe somewhere in the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:04 AM, Ji said: Gefs has really never bought this pattern change At least is not 60sSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 1:09 AM, BristowWx said: Ok. I will worry for the both of us. Ji is right that GFS has not been all in on pattern. Maybe somewhere in the middle. Expand It is struggling with the block I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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