H2O Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Everyone along 95 looking at the euro 3 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: So, we are in the game, and we still have time Ralph! Actually, its pretty early in the game only 2 minutes into the 1st quarter. (Football analogy there) I think it is more tho than just the handoff and the track verbatim. Even a perfect track is playing with fire in the i95 corridor and even just slight n and w mainly because of the prolonged SE fetch out ahead. You have a rotting primary somewhere in the midwest with the nao forcing redevelopment way far S and e away from said primary. Especially without an anomalously cold antecedent airmass, those mid levels are going to get toasted most likely. But as you said, lots of time to fine tune. If i were in elevated interior areas i would be bricked up after 12z fr fr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: As is an op run rain map right? Pretty much the same. No one here cares about rain this time of year though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: An op run snow map at this range is clown either way dude. Today the GFS caved to the EURO. And we are supposed to take its new solution when everyone is saying the GFS just made a thermal adjustment of some kind???? I think this could go either way five days out as it always can, but there is no reason to give the GFS more credence when it is playing catch-up. And when is the Canadian ever correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 12Z EPS: pick a low position; track not set in stone could go either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS: pick a l0ow position Thanks Will, how does that compare to 00z low positions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Today the GFS caved to the EURO. And we are supposed to take its new solution when everyone is saying the GFS just made a thermal adjustment of some kind???? I think this could go either way five days out as it always can, but there is no reason to give the GFS more credence when it is playing catch-up. And when is the Canadian ever correct? Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not sure what you are on about here. I focus on the synoptics and the features at the surface and aloft each model cycle, so I guess I see things from a different perspective than you do. I appreciate your expertise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Thanks Will, how does that compare to 00z low positions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 It's maps like these that suck the air out of the room. It's the very beginning of our snow climo and that always requires at least a modest BN temp profile where it counts. Especially when slp is fighting to bring it down into the mix. In mid Jan, marginal or AN mid level temps to our north work fine because it's pretty cold anyways. I'd love to see snow as much as anyone but temps are not an ingredient we skip over too easily 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 12Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I appreciate your expertise. lol I am no expert, but I guess I have learned enough over the years to identify the important features and their interactions in a given setup. Large scale fluid mechanics. Cool stuff and complex. I actually enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 3 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said: can you pick up a package for me? Go to the Nana plaza. Ask for Matilda! thanks Many much more classy places to go than Nana. At times it is off-limits to farong (foreigners) and can be a violent place when folks misbehave. Lived not far from it for nearly 3 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 83-84 was a stinker here but 83 featured a nasty arctic outbreak leading into the holidays. Mid-Dec 83 500mb analogs have been popping up regularly last 4-5 days. It did snow a few inches that Dec pre-holiday. From afar, it doesn't look like a huge artic outbreak is ripe but certainly possible. Something to watch. If the epo ridge starts freezing western Canada, it's only a matter of time b4 a lot of cold pushes pretty far south and east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Miller B wraparound! Always a winner for us No matter how many times you say it the usual suspects will still melt down and unleash a rant in tongues when it fails. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 WB 12Z EPS at the end of its run….cold Christmas morn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is one of the nicer setups here in a sense. A lot of our threats are usually thread-the-needle/one phase can mess up the whole storm kind of storm, but this one is just us relying on one trough and its track. Cold is there associated w/ the trough, just need a good track. The better track (06z GFS yesterday/00z Euro) would definitely fare well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS at the end of its run….cold Christmas morn. Everything considered, including comments from several media outlets regarding frigid conditions in the East near Christmas, its not really that cold. We had colder already, teens as low temps were recorded at many locations. That was when we had the record - EPO a while back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2022 Author Share Posted December 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No matter how many times you say it the usual suspects will still melt down and unleash a rant in tongues when it fails. As you know, the rule of thumb is once the surface low is north of our latitude, the precipitation shuts off in these situations. What could keep it going is lift generated by the 500mb low, which euro does seem to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something So in a word...this came about a couples weeks too early? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's a shame there is literally zero deep cold anywhere to help. Mid level temp maps look terrible. Lol. You know there's something really wrong when a blocked surface low totally ignores the baroclinic zone off the coast because it's impotent. So what's left is a complicated mess both at the surface and upper levels. Our "complicated" batting avg needs a pinch hitter or something Yeah i can’t get hyped about snow chances with this storm as of yet. Can’t ignore the obvious with Tangier to Kent Island type track. Climo and just too much warm air flooding in. Big ass block can only do so much and if there isn’t help with a decent cold air source then mids win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: Honestly, I can't believe I'm saying this, but this is one of the nicer setups here in a sense. A lot of our threats are usually thread-the-needle/one phase can mess up the whole storm kind of storm, but this one is just us relying on one trough and its track. Cold is there associated w/ the trough, just need a good track. The better track (06z GFS yesterday/00z Euro) would definitely fare well here. I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean. I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 ^thats impressive cold….not so much for us But you gotta like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: ^thats impressive cold….not so much for us But you gotta like our chances It looks dare i say ideal? We dont want the core of anomalous cold centered over us. Those maps in tandem are ideal...there, I said it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Still hints of low pressure developing near the gulf for this period. This sort of look could produce a low tracking up along but somewhat off the coast, potentially better for the lowlands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: I would be worried about marginal cold air prior to the system and pretty toasty Atlantic Waters and the winds in off the ocean. I do not see how this system is a purely wintery affair the only way is if the whole set up is further east. We have a pretty strong high to our north with CAD which is usually undermodeled so the cold air at the surface does come from a decent source. But yeah, I don't think we get a purely snow event, but a wintry mix -> snow and maybe some rain is definitely plausible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 Today has been a letdown...stuff looked better when it was getting shredded lol. Hopefully we can get some frozen precip from the event to guarantee a non frozen precip shutout this winter! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, frd said: Everything considered, including comments from several media outlets regarding frigid conditions in the East near Christmas, its not really that cold. We had colder already, teens as low temps were recorded at many locations. That was when we had the record - EPO a while back. Looks pretty mundane. gfs run at 384 very wet out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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