IronTy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 JB is getting really philosophical on his WB posts. This sort of thing happens when he's convinced he's scored a coup and a big storm is lurking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not enough spacing/too much confluence kills the chance of a coastal this run. Wave just dampens. Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Blocking giveth and blocking taketh away I ain't think it was gonna be THAT strong, lol My goodness...Well if nothing else that could bode well for later on. Wonder if 12z Euro will kinda meet in the middle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, Ji said: there are so many ways to fail...even when things look good! We don't fail. We get on the board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Its basically as if we actually have too much blocking in the north atlantic but not enough in Central Canada to force storms to track further south and not deal with these Miller B's/coastal redevelopments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Its basically as if we actually have too much blocking in the north atlantic but not enough in Central Canada to force storms to track further south and not deal with these Miller B's/coastal redevelopments. It’s more a function of having a -PNA with monster Atlantic side blocking. Storm is jacked coming out of the Rockies and then starts to get sheared and shredded by the Atlantic blocking. Gets pushed south and then a coastal redevelopment of some kind happens. A zillion moving parts here so expect very little consistency. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2022 Author Share Posted December 9, 2022 If you want to play that game, a GGEM/GFS blend would be [cousin Eddie voice] really nice [/cousin Eddie voice]. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 No way am I sweating details this far out, especially since both the Icon and Canadian showed an actual coastal, but I'm intrigued by what the GFS just did. It's pretty cool to see a flow of moisture coming at us from the NW, up and over CAD. Instead of a flood of warm air pushing from the SW that threatens to erode our CAD, we have the mechanisms in place to reinforce the cold air and because we get some redevelopment south of us and we have flow coming from the NW we're not threatened with the mids being overwhelmed with warm air. Whether this happens or not, it's just kind of a cool thing to see play out on a model. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 ^not bad. Anyone got that map with individual low placement for the same time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 A little more spread and a bit further offshore than 6z but not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Take this and run: 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Take this and run:I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing 1 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: I'm looking for a Mecs hecs...anything less will be dissapointing It's December. The favorable pattern is just getting established. You'll take 2-4 with sleet and rain and be happy. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Incoming on GFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Let's not sleep on the 19th - 21st on the GFS either. High pressure is locked in nicely ahead of a gulf storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Incoming on GFS? looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm. the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: looks like the jet stream is more favorable for the gom to get involved with that storm. the first is a miller miss compared to 6z, but it's still not a bad spot to be in compared to the typical redevelopment further north. Old forecasting rule was 3 to 4 isobars ahead of the storm it meant the Gulf was open for business. Looks like health blocking in Canada and the Atlantic at 500mb at HR240 ahead of the storm. That's nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Take this and run: You mean ABSCOND, I believe? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 This board is in true form!! It is what I love! The Ensemble looked pretty good. Nice to see. But the shredder has been very capable this fall of taking 1 to 3 inch rain storms and giving me a quarter inch as we got close. That will continue the way it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Incoming on GFS? Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! I wonder if Mappy's wedding invitations listed the ceremony time in z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! I land at 9pm at dulles on 12/19. This is the perfect storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Did you just make a call for a Miller A??? I'm sure @WEATHER53 has some explanations. Models frequently show a positive outcome from a Miller B for DC area. They are almost always wrong as it generally develops too far northeast and maybe Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD more, Philly to NYC a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well, if that occurs, we will have to refer to it as the @mappy storm (look at the valid time on that map)! Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, cbmclean said: I wonder if Mappy's wedding invitations listed the ceremony time in z. And give the wedding location in lat/lon map coordinates? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol BAM storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Just now, cbmclean said: BAM storm. Nailed it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now I'm torn...If we get it on Friday it'll be the Beethoven storm (his birthday for those who don't know ). AND the Avatar storm. But at the same time...mappy storm, lol We'll have to hyphenate it, a'la the famous "Washington-Jefferson storm." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: BAM storm. Emeril Lagasse says hello! Kick it up a notch, too!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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