December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Lol a primary low that takes an Omaha to Chicago track and then becomes a Miller B off Wilmington NC and gives us a MECS 

What is the mechanism that would make a model do this? Clearly that's not a realistic scenario but the model still did it....is it possible to explain why....also why it would do it two runs in a row? Just curious

[midatlanticweather]

Seems so logical of a set up! I mean, it could happen.  It likely will not! LOL!  - Looks good now. I need the bullseye 7 days out though to feel more confident! 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What is the mechanism that would make a model do this? Clearly that's not a realistic scenario but the model still did it....is it possible to explain why....also why it would do it two runs in a row? Just curious

See my other posts but the +higher heights (some calling it blocking) retrogresses from NAO wward to S Central Canada (eventually feeding the EPO). GFS times this higher height movement West in tandem with a vort moving underneath. Same time these higher heights try and connect with a ridge centered over the Rockies. Unlikely it times perfectly like this, but even more odd it was 2 runs in a row.

[Xeonon]

So I'm totally a newb here and I have been watching over these boards for YEARS. I am based in Richmond, VA. I've been out of the game for a long long long time but I am eager to maybe become a part of this community. Seems like a real fun group and my type of people. I know a lot of you are in NOVA / MD, anyone else in the RVA area? Also what do you guys think about our chances down here, seems like you guys up North are getting the bulk of the love off the models!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Well I’ll say this…I feel confident we haven’t seen the final solution yet for that storm. And crazy things happen with the kind of blocking advertised for next week. 

If I were in N central MD I might be a little intrigued at this point. Certainly looks good for Central/NE PA into NYS. The setup looks marginal at best for snow in most of our region, and for the MA coastal plain any significant frozen seems pretty unlikely.

[Ji]

If I were in N central MD I might be a little intrigued at this point. Certainly looks good for Central/NE PA into NYS. The setup looks marginal at best for snow in most of our region, and for the MA coastal plain any significant frozen seems pretty unlikely.

If we can't get snow from a -nao and 5050 low...what's point of this hobby in our region lol

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

If we can't get snow from a -nao and 5050 low...what's point of this hobby in our region lol

You are being overly simplistic. Probably on purpose.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

You are being overly simplistic. Probably on purpose.

You sure about that Clark?

[frd]

 

Snap shot near Christmas from the CFS 500 hPa Hgts and Anomalies.   

 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, frd said:

 

Snap shot near Christmas from the CFS 500 hPa Hgts and Anomalies.   

 

 

 

Nice

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Xeonon said:

So I'm totally a newb here and I have been watching over these boards for YEARS. I am based in Richmond, VA. I've been out of the game for a long long long time but I am eager to maybe become a part of this community. Seems like a real fun group and my type of people. I know a lot of you are in NOVA / MD, anyone else in the RVA area? Also what do you guys think about our chances down here, seems like you guys up North are getting the bulk of the love off the models!

The farther south you are the more you’ll rely on some west coast ridging (+PNA) to force cold air and the storm track south. I think for all of us, better wintry precip chances probably come after next weeks storm. And any specific threat will be highly contingent on what happens to next weeks storm, so can’t diagnose more than that now.

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

If I were in N central MD I might be a little intrigued at this point. Certainly looks good for Central/NE PA into NYS. The setup looks marginal at best for snow in most of our region, and for the MA coastal plain any significant frozen seems pretty unlikely.

I’ll remain skeptical of any major frozen event from next week’s storm for awhile, but if I was north of NYC, I’d be getting excited.

[Terpeast]

LWX saying wintry precip in next week’s storm is “plausible” for our area… in a nod to the GFS. 

Euro and CMC still show a cutter and rain.

I’m not up to speed on model performance and comparison, but Euro used to be the king. That still the case or has it gotten dethroned?

[CAPE]

This might be a period where we have a more reasonable shot. Colder air in place(unlike next week's event) with the boundary to our SE, and indications of a few waves moving along it.

[frd]

 

The PV still looks to be under pressure as we near the end of the month with a couple heat fluxes.  

 

[frd]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This might be a period where we have a more reasonable shot. Colder air in place(unlike next week's event) with the boundary to our SE, and indications of a few waves moving along it.

 

Nice to see the moisture nearby with the cold in place.  

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

RE: Dec 16th - 18th window. I'm optimistic that at least north of I-70 gets some kind of frozen from that.

[Weather Will]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

RE: Dec 16th - 18th window. I'm optimistic that at least north of I-70 gets some kind of frozen from that.

WB 6Z EPS current run v. 4 runs ago….agree

[midatlanticweather]

48 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

LWX saying wintry precip in next week’s storm is “plausible” for our area… in a nod to the GFS. 

Euro and CMC still show a cutter and rain.

I’m not up to speed on model performance and comparison, but Euro used to be the king. That still the case or has it gotten dethroned?

I have not looked! @dtk is the man on models. I had also reached out because I think people knock the 6z and 18z models like we should not concern ourselves with off run times. I think he debunked that myth a while back once better tools were put in place. I dunno. The Euro seems as unreliable as any other model can be these days. Good common sense and meteorology has to be used. This set up is so unique that I would be super cautious about getting my hopes up! But a fluke lucky event is possibly our better chances these days! 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Well I’ll say this…I feel confident we haven’t seen the final solution yet for that storm. And crazy things happen with the kind of blocking advertised for next week. 

Did you just make a call for a Miller A???

 

 

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

What is the mechanism that would make a model do this? Clearly that's not a realistic scenario but the model still did it....is it possible to explain why....also why it would do it two runs in a row? Just curious

I'm sure @WEATHER53 has some explanations.

[olafminesaw]

I've noticed the GFS had been unrealistically bombing out coastal storms lately. Seems like a 970mb low deepening that quickly is just a tad unrealistic. A weaker storm would mean rain for the coastal plain

[Winter Wizard]

Pretty clear differences between the EPS and GEFS evolution...EPS has a notably stronger -PNA signal which enhances the SE ridge and takes the mean storm track farther N while the GEFS is neutral to slightly positive. You would want that parent low to decay sooner, closer to OH/KY border rather than MI to get any appreciable frozen precip into the Mid-Atlantic. Even then, it would favor the typical climo areas - at the current depiction, it's difficult for me to get enthused if I lived near the coast. 

[frd]

 

Of potential interest in regards to HL blocking today is the AO might achieve a  -4.0 SD . Yesterday I believe it was - 3.35 or close to it.  

According to Don Sutherland  when the AO achieves - 4.0 or deeper reading it has the ability to overpower less friendly indices such as the - PNA. 

Not saying this is going to be the outcome, but it will be interesting to watch the trends. 

Also of the note, the AO is not forecast to rise as rapidly once bottomed out then what was modeled a few days ago. So, basically it appears the month of December will feature a mostly or completely negative AO and a significant one of that which will hopefully entices another  - AO regime during the upcoming winter season. 

 

[LP08]

First ICON post of the year.  Continues the trend south of the redevelopment.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

What is the mechanism that would make a model do this? Clearly that's not a realistic scenario but the model still did it....is it possible to explain why....also why it would do it two runs in a row? Just curious

Yeah the whole thing is curious. Now someone can correct me here, but...have we ever gotten snow out of that kind of...uh, whatever it's doing? Even to my eyes it looks a bit weird. I mean on one hand, it makes SOME sense if the block really is that strong (and then the other factor of that 50/50), but on the other hand...yeah, weird, lol 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah the whole thing is curious. Now someone can correct me here, but...have we ever gotten snow out of that kind of...uh, whatever it's doing? Even to my eyes it looks a bit weird. I mean on one hand, it makes SOME sense if the block really is that strong (and then the other factor of that 50/50), but on the other hand...yeah, weird, lol 

Strong blocks for interesting things. It's possible that we bootleg our way into something. Wouldn't be the first time either. That being said, it's wise to keep expectations low.

[North Balti Zen]

I wouldn't stress over the details, but I am just a rank amateur. 

Is there a strong block?

Is there cold air available to go with the block?

If there is, how will systems react to that?

And how will models show those potential reactions?

That's basically it, right, for now? So maybe people can take heart in seeing the long-awaited "OMG WHAT A PATTERN FOR A BLOCK" actually get to within 7 days and enjoy seeing how the models play with that in their runs. The idea that a strong block and waves would generate some good maps is not crazy. Sensible weather would likely result in a primary around KY/TN and then a jump to cash us in, but I am heartened to see the modeling starting to "see" the block and jump a system, even if its not gonna likely go from Chicago to the Carolinas.  

Probably screaming into the void, but...don't sweat that at range, maybe? 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah the whole thing is curious. Now someone can correct me here, but...have we ever gotten snow out of that kind of...uh, whatever it's doing? Even to my eyes it looks a bit weird. I mean on one hand, it makes SOME sense if the block really is that strong (and then the other factor of that 50/50), but on the other hand...yeah, weird, lol 

Yes, there are a few examples of that kind of progression.  It’s not impossible but it’s rare. Definitely not the typical way we get a snowstorm. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, LP08 said:

First ICON post of the year.  Continues the trend south of the redevelopment.

Come on man, post the more weenie p-type map.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Come on man, post the more weenie p-type map.

Hah…it hadn’t updated and I had to be first 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Isnt this the storm window that DT put out an ALEET for last week?