December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[H2O]

26 minutes ago, Ian said:

yeah dca area bullseye is gonna happen in a marginal pattern with a marginal storm 

Only way I can hit climo are from bootleg holiday miracles

[Scraff]

You people and your white Christmas. Meh. I’m all in on white Hanukkah!! L’chaim!! 

[nj2va]

At least we’re getting fantasy storms - a good sign the OP sees the changes that the ensembles have been showing.

[CAPE]

The 'new favorable pattern' concept over the last few runs on the means, from mid month forward-- a solidly -AO, a bit stronger -EPO, a little less -NAO. I'll take the slight tradeoff that tilts a bit more towards a favorable Pacific in a Nina. Looks colder too. Just don't want the EPO ridge to become too positively tilted, esp if the -NAO weakens.

 

 

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, Scraff said:

You people and your white Christmas. Meh. I’m all in on white Hanukkah!! L’chaim!! 

[IronTy]

18Z with white christmas carrot being tossed out there...

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

You people and your white Christmas. Meh. I’m all in on white Hanukkah!! L’chaim!! 

[mdhokie]

The big ones get sniffed out early! Lock it up! Now to pass out for 360 hours and wake up to flakes flying.

[nw baltimore wx]

Damn. That 18z run looks like it’s finally catching up to the pattern potential. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Reaper turning into a weenie??  Whaaaaaaat???  (and at Target, no less?)

Which begs the question:  When the Reaper gets despondent and decides to jump, what happens??  Is that almost like a Catch-22??  How does one interpret that?  Does @Ji reap the Reaper?  It would be almost a full circle kind of thing! 

But this would never happen, it's all hypothetical.  Isn't it?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 hours ago, Scraff said:

You people and your white Christmas. Meh. I’m all in on white Hanukkah!! L’chaim!! 

Hanukkah Harry approves!  (Oy veh!!)

[Ji]

Gfs first winter storm for us midweek from enough front end into cad

[nj2va]

Next week’s cutter on the GFS continues to evolve with the 50/50 low and block. Now gets some front end frozen into the area as energy is forced south off the cutter. 

[nj2va]

Canadian with a ‘transfer’ from the MN/IA border to the Delmarva with next week’s cutter.  Still think the period bears watching as the MR gets sorted out with the blocking/50-50/volatility on the models.  

[NorthArlington101]

Canadian with a ‘transfer’ from the MN/IA border to the Delmarva with next week’s cutter.  Still think the period bears watching as the MR gets sorted out with the blocking/50-50/volatility on the models.  

CMC and it’s ens are also intriguing Sun/Mon for western zones especially. As someone who enjoys the medium/short range stuff even when it’s a long shot, it’s been a decent tracking night… need something new now that Friday night continues to evaporate

[Ji]

Dr no went from yes to no sat morning. No precip

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This is the one I like

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I love it

smooth this out backward

[mappy]

ew. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^they are just basing current conditions. -EPO's verify colder, unless it trends back -PNA (which is not on models now)

[ldub23]

06 gfs mild and wet jan thaw coming soon

[CAPE]

We got us another one.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We got us another one.

I thought I read that the birth rate was declining....guess not enough.

[CAPE]

Impressive -EPO across guidance now, so it appears we will have the mechanism to deliver some pretty legit cold beyond mid month. Seeing hints on the ens means of possible waves tracking along the boundary to our south, but no clear signal at this range.

[Heisy]

Impressive -EPO across guidance now, so it appears we will have the mechanism to deliver some pretty legit cold beyond mid month. Seeing hints on the ens means of possible waves tracking along the boundary to our south, but no clear signal at this range.

Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events.


.

[CAPE]

Just now, Heisy said:

Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events.


.

Looks like there will be at least some help in the NAO domain, but need the PNA to hang around neutral. Always a fight in a Nina.

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Agreed. After the cutter should be much better cold air availability with -EPO. PNA issues still, so probably will still be dealing with less than ideal storm tracks, but maybe a decent pattern for front Enders/WAA events.


.

 

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like there will be at least some help in the NAO domain, but need the PNA to hang around neutral. Always a fight in a Nina.

We want weaker waves that don’t cut or trailing waves that follow along the boundary laid down by a previous stronger storm. Always takes some timing and a bit of luck, but those are very typical ways we get a snow event  in the mid-Atlantic. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Impressive -EPO across guidance now, so it appears we will have the mechanism to deliver some pretty legit cold beyond mid month. Seeing hints on the ens means of possible waves tracking along the boundary to our south, but no clear signal at this range.

Just made a post in Philly wrt EPO. You already know this but a raging epo ridge at any time but particularly in a Nina could be good and bad depending on how the Nina SER decides to behave. We could certainly get the boundary in a prime spot pending the SER but too much flex and we are shredding too little flex (flat) and we are sliding/shredding. Right in the middle and we might have a winner. I terested to see how this change pans out.

Eta: lets just get the cold established for now. One thing at a time yes?

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just made a post in Philly wrt EPO. You already know this but a raging epo ridge at any time but particularly in a Nina could be good and bad depending on how the Nina SER decides to behave. We could certainly get the boundary in a prime spot pending the SER but too much flex and we are shredding too little flex (flat) and we are sliding/shredding. Right in the middle and we might have a winner. I terested to see how this change pans out.

Eta: lets just get the cold established for now. One thing at a time yes?

Yeah, there are issues in any pattern, even ones we identify as favorable overall. The orientation/character of the EPO ridge makes a difference as to how much cold can make it eastward. The -PNA tendency needs to be kept in check. A -NAO will help encourage more favorable storm tracks and inhibit eastern ridging. Details we just can't know yet.

[dallen7908]

"Details we just can't know yet."

Details --> Whether or not there will be an east-coast storm

Details --> Whether it will snow in Washington, DC

 

Too bad CAPE isn't referring to the latter.