December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[Ji]

18z euro really dampens out the system.   Really cut down on qpf

We are in mid-season form

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z… ingredient #1 for snow moving into place the 17th-21st on all 3 global ensembles.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow

[dailylurker]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow

Yup. Followed by 70 the next day lol

[CAPE]

As it looks now, the colder air will come in behind the mid month storm, which at this point looks like a mild rainstorm. Still a week out and there are hints on the ops and ens that it could morph into something a bit more favorable, but most likely outcome is rain for our region, with upslope snow for the western highlands on the backside. Once the colder air is in place and the the thermal boundary is south of the area, there should be some trackable waves leading up to Xmas. For all the reasons we have discussed over the past couple days with the pattern evolution, the airmass- at least initially- will likely be somewhat colder than average for the EC. The Canadian model is probably too cold- it has a stronger more classic -NAO look for a time beyond mid month, quite different from the EPS and GEFS. Good news is snow climo is improving the last third of the month. Personally I am rooting for something simple- a more modest wave tracking along the boundary vs something that amps up.

The key to a favorable pattern for the last half of December imo lies on the PAC side at this point. We need a -EPO, and at least a neutral PNA period. The NAO will initially be quite negative, although probably never close to the true block of our hopes and dreams, but trending towards neutral by the end of the month.

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

When -NAO wanes.. that's when we'll get our snow

This doesn't always work. The NAO will technically be negative, but not a true block. That chance is evaporating as we speak with a lobe of the Okhotsk TPV digging south and absorbing the vortex over Canada. Ruined by typical Nina wave interactions.

[kgottwald]

On 11/29/2022 at 9:30 PM, poolz1 said:

Your mention of Bob Ryan made me a bit nostalgic . Anyone remember Gordon Barnes?  Felt like he was a radio meteorologist in the 80's.  Remember clearly listening to him forecast a storm 3 days in advance..."30% chance of snow" we ended up with 11" of powder.  No knock on Gordon...just a sign of the times. Play it safe until its not safe. lol 

Gordon Barnes! That takes me back! He'd give his winter predictions in November, usually calling for a cold, snowy pattern, and he'd *always* say we were going to get a white Christmas. I don't know how he came up with that stuff, probably pulled out of his ass.

After three or four years of disappointments, I got pretty annoyed at him for continually raising false hopes.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This doesn't always work. The NAO will technically be negative, but not a true block. That chance is evaporating as we speak with a lobe of the Okhotsk TPV digging south and absorbing the vortex over Canada. Ruined by typical Nina wave interactions.

Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. 

(LSD experiments started in the 1960s)

[anotherman]

Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. 
(LSD experiments started in the 1960s)

It all makes sense now.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Going back to 2019, the Atlantic-Pacific have changed the same day (D-0) (D+0) every-almost/every time. 

(LSD experiments started in the 1960s)

Are these 2 statements related? LSD cloud seeding?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, I could have studied atmospheric physics.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I really like this pattern. Low pressure anomaly NE of Hawaii gives us snow. 

-PNA, like I predicted, fades, as 45N has been colder than normal since August-September

 

[CAPE]

The GEFS h5 pattern over the last few runs has trended to a better overall look across the top for the period beyond mid month. Good sign.

 

[Wonderdog]

6z GFS op trying to give us some mood flakes next week and is that some CAD in the mountains?

[CAPE]

A -AO/-NAO/-EPO trifecta can get some decent cold into Canada, then into the central and eastern US. In that setup, a slightly negative to neutral PNA can facilitate disturbances entering the west coast further south, instead of exclusively relying on waves coming over the top with a stacked -EPO/+PNA ridge. That could be dry-ish.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I really like this pattern. Low pressure anomaly NE of Hawaii gives us snow. 

-PNA, like I predicted, fades, as 45N has been colder than normal since August-September

 

Is this showing your ++NAO? I cant read the fine print.

Coca-Cola contained cocaine until the 1940s

[ldub23]

75 on 23 dec?

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

75 on 23 dec?

Obvs

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'll tell you what, Dec 16th sure does look good, with the orientation of this -EPO

Something I've been watching is that Russia is always cold

[Snowmadness]

Don’t post much but check out WX South post on FB.  Seems pretty excited about the upcoming pattern.  I can’t post it here, file too large. 

 

 

 

[clskinsfan]

Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. 

Can't really compare a smoothed/course mean to a high resolution op run extrapolated out 15 days. Load h5 on the 6z op run, put it on animate, squint a little, and notice all the red in the high latitudes with vortices flying around all over the midlatitudes. That's the general look we want. The interactions and timing among these features will change significantly from run to run and result in wildly different outcomes.

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty. 

Looks like a west coast winter so far, that's for sure lol.  At this point, we're chasing the Winter solstice.  It is early, though.  And there's been cold around, but yea...extended biking and basketball season for now.

[Stormfly]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

75 on 23 dec?

For shortpump, sure!

[nj2va]

That's quite the 50/50 low that the OP GFS has next week - it'd to be great if that follow-up storm didn't end into a cutter from going neg. tilt over the plains, and slid underneath us.  There's a 1050 HP that's too far north too.  If only we could rearrange this map by hand

ETA:  This map is staring at you.

[87storms]

The GFS has some trackable waves around the solstice time period...so basically we've been tracking winter until winter.  And it's only 2 weeks away.

[brooklynwx99]

soooooo the GFS/GEFS completely whiffed on a 50/50 due to the system on Monday trending a lot more robust

this has led to sweeping changes with how the overall pattern will develop later on, and the GEFS is now keying in on a lot more blocking over Greenland and AK. the AK blocking is likely due to the 50/50 as well as the GEFS noticing the effect of the +EAMT and Siberian TPV 

either way, I still think that we're on track for an exciting period of winter weather after the 15th or so. I see no reason to stray from that as of now. if anything, I've become a lot more confident since yesterday

[WxUSAF]

About damn time a GFS op run shows a winter pattern when we expect one. I’m sure 18z will go back to hurricanes and SE ridges.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

About damn time a GFS op run shows a winter pattern when we expect one. I’m sure 18z will go back to hurricanes and SE ridges.

Euro bout to be like…

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS trying to set up a shortwave train after the cutter this week, hopefully that can set up a Christmas miracle*.

 

 

* That miracle being Ji not complaining