SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There were meltdowns during 2009-2010. How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: How? Ji. Lost his shit during the great Christmas snow melt and then the first three weeks of January. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start) What chart do you want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: How? Ji had one of his worst meltdowns. Others followed him over the cliff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Ji had one of his worst meltdowns. Others followed him over the cliff. What are you thinking of the upcoming pattern switch? The later model trends only seem to be delaying the switch, which was expected to my knowledge, so are we roughly in the same spot or do you think anything has seriously changed for the forecast 12/20 onwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I suppose that a major pattern/blocking scenario would cause major problems for the models so while this weekend's storm is probably is probably toast, the December 15th time frame may still be a possibility. A little better climate-wise and it gives more time to set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: What are you thinking of the upcoming pattern switch? The later model trends only seem to be delaying the switch, which was expected to my knowledge, so are we roughly in the same spot or do you think anything has seriously changed for the forecast 12/20 onwards? Couple of thoughts: 1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. 2.) It's December, and it's La Nina. These are two hostile background environments for us. Folks need to realize this won't be a 2009-2010 December and be happy with what we get. 3.) Climo say that 7% of winters here feature a White Christmas. I honestly believe that a bit of patience will yield us a higher than normal chance of a White Christmas this year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: Nice bermuda high 70 for christmas? Jb may be wrong I would be fine with that TBH. Christmas 2015 is still very well remembered, we had our windows open and it was pouring down rain. A repeat of Jan 2016 would be very welcome here. Something locked on (by some) a week in advance and with every run it just got better. And a storm where p-type was never a concern (for us anyway) it just snowed its ass off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stormfly said: I would be fine with that TBH. Christmas 2015 is still very well remembered, we had our windows open and it was pouring down rain. A repeat of Jan 2016 would be very welcome here. Something locked on (by some) a week in advance and with every run it just got better. And a storm where p-type was never a concern (for us anyway) it just snowed its ass off! Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 LC Says thaw coming jan 07. Thaw of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 EURO still has the Friday night/Saturday event FWIW. Not as nice of a hit as last night, but a (verbatim) T-2 with 3” in the favored NMD spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 Euro is basically a hold for early Saturday. A bit weaker with the low and the cold push than 0z. Probably grassy accumulation for the N/W crew with maybe some white rain closer to the cities verbatim. There was a time that when the euro was locked in like this at D4-5 it was money, despite whatever other guidance. No longer… 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire. I'd only take that if we could get a Jan 2016 redux, lol That's literally the only reason I have a SLIGHTLY positive association with Christmas 2015 because of what happened later, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 1.) We've seen time and time again that NWP is too quick to switch patterns. For example, you see the pattern flipping around the 5th of the month, but it doesn't wind up changing until the 9th or 10th. I don't see that happening here. The reliable, long range modeling is showing a slow but steady progression to at least a marginally favorable pattern. Thanks for the response, I've been trying to learn more about the upper air part of meteorology and trying to figure out if the pattern will actually flip. It's nice to hear that you think the pattern will flip around the 10th. Is there any reason that models almost always switch patterns too quickly? If so why has it not been addressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, ldub23 said: LC Says thaw coming jan 07. Thaw of what? Please stick to the tropical threads 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hot on Christmas would be terrible. This place would be a dumpster fire. It wouldn't be my preferred experience but in the past what came after was worth it. Can't always have it either. 30F and heavy sleet with 55mph wind gusts would be worse! I don't mind the wind but sleet is the devil. Might as well be sailing and run into a reef! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is basically a hold for early Saturday. A bit weaker with the low and the cold push than 0z. Probably grassy accumulation for the N/W crew with maybe some white rain closer to the cities verbatim. There was a time that when the euro was locked in like this at D4-5 it was money, despite whatever other guidance. No longer… Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Thanks for the response, I've been trying to learn more about the upper air part of meteorology and trying to figure out if the pattern will actually flip. It's nice to hear that you think the pattern will flip around the 10th. Is there any reason that models almost always switch patterns too quickly? If so why has it not been addressed? The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: The answer to that is complicated and above my knowledge level. When I was still a meteorology major I was smarter about those things, but in my old age those facts have leaked out of my brain. You're better off speaking with one of the mets on here. I know there's a NOAA HQ NWP guy on here that's pretty smart about those biases. Maybe it's @das that I'm thinking of? @dtk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance. It varies on the season and situation of course, but inside of 72hrs should have the H5 and surface depiction quite close to the final truth. Statistics clearly say the euro is the best at this, but it definitely gets schooled by other guidance more often than in the olden days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: How? There were long times in between snow. January wasn't great until the very end, but the two week stretch we went through was just unbelievable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It varies on the season and situation of course, but inside of 72hrs should have the H5 and surface depiction quite close to the final truth. Statistics clearly say the euro is the best at this, but it definitely gets schooled by other guidance more often than in the olden days. Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Speaking of H5...Are there any sites with any guides on how to read that? Sure thing: NWS website on 500mb: https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/500mb#:~:text=For the 500 mb level,5%2C640 meters (18%2C503 feet) University of Arizona: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring17/atmo336s2/lectures/sec1/info500mb.html PSU: https://learningweather.psu.edu/node/94 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 21 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Interesting. So do you think the lock in period is down to 3-4 days now. and do you consider the EURO still the quickest to the dance. It’s gonna take a decent shift south for us to see anything ground visible from the 9-10 deal…and even with that the cold is barely there. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time. Once is starts it rarely stops. When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so. If not, then not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The delayed (but not denied) mechanism is Most Deadly at Exactly this time. Once is starts it rarely stops. When cold air delivery does arrive on time as projected in the 5-10 day then it tends to arrive as predicted on time and continues to do so. If not, then not. We all need to do a little day drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 What the hell is delayed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 EPS looks amazing after the 12-14th system... strong blocking remains over the Davis Strait and the Pacific is vastly improved. everything still looks on track for the 15th onward 23 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 ^the Siberian/Okhotsk PV is key I think. I’ll make a longer post this evening about that after TT charts update. 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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