December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[mappy]

....is the 9/10th threat a thing re: winter weather? looks warm

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, mappy said:

....is the 9/10th threat a thing re: winter weather? looks warm

Yea it looks like a marginal event is a legit possibility.

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

....is the 9/10th threat a thing re: winter weather? looks warm

If it works out it’s very much a “just in time” cold air arrival with a little help from evaporative and dynamic cooling.  That’s our wheelhouse!

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea it looks like a marginal event is a legit possibility.

Okay, thanks. I will have to really start paying attention it seems. 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

If it works out it’s very much a “just in time” cold air arrival with a little help from evaporative and dynamic cooling.  That’s our wheelhouse!

ha, well that makes me feel better (obviously my bigger worry is a dance recital lol). We always score when we are hoping cold air comes in as precip is still around hahahahaha

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If it works out it’s very much a “just in time” cold air arrival with a little help from evaporative and dynamic cooling.  That’s our wheelhouse!

yes my area has scored hundreds of times under those conditions....thousands.............take the pen

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro gfs look so different

Always good to have newbies. Don’t worry you’ll figure it out after a while. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Always good to have newbies. Don’t worry you’ll figure it out after a while. 

Idk man, SE flow in the mids right off the ocean with a marginal start in early Dec is money in my book. And by money I mean all in on the under

[frd]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

As we wait for a discreet threat to give us a White Christmas, it is looking increasingly likely that at least the holiday period will bring colder temperatures, which is ingredient number 1 for any snow storm potential….WB CFS and GFS extended centered on the anomalies around the 25th.

 

I wouldn't get your hopes up.  The can is being kicked down the road yet again.  The EPS and the GEFS are underestimating the - PNA.  We never get inside a 10 day window with a decent pattern, its always days 10 to 15 . So far that has happend three times. To make matters worse the awesome look of the PV under the block is gone so cold air delivery is questionable.  We need to wait for a - EPO /  improving Pac to deliver a colder air mass to the East.  Seems climo history has more merit than modeling.  It simply is very difficult to get snow in December. 

 

  

 

 

 

[Weather Will]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

 

I wouldn't get your hopes up.  The can is being kicked down the road yet again.  The EPS and the GEFS are underestimating the - PNA.  We never get inside a 10 day window with a decent pattern, its always days 10 to 15 . So far that has happend three times. To make matters worse the awesome look of the PV under the block is gone so cold air delivery is questionable.  We need to wait for a - EPO /  improving Pac to deliver a colder air mass to the East.  Seems climo history has more merit than modeling.  It simply is very difficult to get snow in December. 

 

  

 

 

 

I agree with the can being kicked down the road, but both GEFS and EPS seem to be in sync this time around for the improvements by the weekend of the 17th, let’s see if it holds…

[aldie 22]

assuming you are saying the can is being kicked if you expected it to snow on the 9th?

[Bob Chill]

We all have our own tolerance for tracking long range so this is just how i see it. We are witnessing exactly what you would expect on ops given the general UL nina pattern in early Dec. We don't do well ever no matter how good it looks. This is where the human quantum brain is better than computers. All flawed tracks and setups will fail and the amazing ones will try hard to fail.

 

But what is a fail? Model said snow 5-6 days out and it rained instead? That's an ingrained model fail and not a storm fail imho. Once we get to the last 10 days of Dec, a medium range threat that looks good and fails is worth the disappointment. Right now it's all an exercise in disappointment if you expect a meaningful storm that sticks everywhere for a few more weeks. 

This is just my way and why I'm not engaged in or looking at something discreet. Not a good time investment

[Weather Will]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

assuming you are saying the can is being kicked if you expected it to snow on the 9th?

Two weeks ago some modeling indicated this week we would see colder/stormier pattern.  In fairness, the consensus seemed to be that was too aggressive and mid month looked more reasonable.  If we get a colder stormier pattern before Christmas that is pretty close…

[Bob Chill]

I have no time to do it but I had a light bulb go off with decent snows before Dec 15th. There aren't a lot over multiple decades but if there is any common denominator, it's prob a -epo period leading in. Temps are the dagger always and it's hard to get -15 departures with a warm heat sink ocean nearby. What can overcome that completely? My money is modified arctic air needs to be in place first. I'll look eventually unless someone beats me to it

[frd]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

assuming you are saying the can is being kicked if you expected it to snow on the 9th?

I was hoping for the  mid month period, but I feel we need to wait longer based on the pattern . Looking forward to eventual tracking, whether it be late this month, or in Jan or Feb.  

[Bob Chill]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

I was hoping for the  mid month period, but I feel we need to wait longer based on the pattern . Looking forward to eventual tracking, whether it be late this month, or in Jan or Feb.  

We can snow mid month no prob but it will prob come in some unexpected weird way. Let the Intermountain west get dumped on for a while. I lived out there for 7 years. 3 ninas iirc. All 3 had decent Nov and Dec snow before a nasty +pna went up and bluebirded the snow for weeks (and ruined the conditions). Often we'll into Jan. Continued happening after I left too. 

One thing we haven't had in many ninas recently is a real block or stable hl displacement. +pna isn't going to overcome that alone. That's part of why I went big for snowfall contest. Nina -pnas are not static at all. Mid winter +pna ridges are just as normal after the neg cycle runs. My optimism is there. Let the pna go up when it really matters here... after Dec 15th or so....

 

ETA: the one Nina in the rockies that blew my mind was 95-95. 150" of snow in Jan alone. At one point it was like 6-12" day for 10 days. You know what I learned? Blocking matters out west too. Ninas can be very dry mid winter in the rockies. Not that year tho... and not here either....

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

I was hoping for the  mid month period, but I feel we need to wait longer based on the pattern . Looking forward to eventual tracking, whether it be late this month, or in Jan or Feb.  

My expectation was that by the 15th we would potentially start seeing threats show up later in December NOT that by mid month the threats would happen. I guess it's all about expectations as Bob said, know where we live and use the experiences we all have had in understanding any kind of pattern shifts. It may be science but the expectations part are all experience IMHO

[H2O]

Based on the last two weeks of incessant model posts of things 240+ hours away my thoughts have been this

12/5-12/10: pattern starts changing from mild to seasonal or BN

12/12-12/17: storm chances increase, too early to know precip type

12/20-12/31: pattern stable or RELOAD?  

If I’m wrong someone let me know. If it wants to snow after the -AO/NAO sets in then great but D+7 models won’t know until mid month

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Based on the last two weeks of incessant model posts of things 240+ hours away my thoughts have been this

12/5-12/10: pattern starts changing from mild to seasonal or BN

12/12-12/17: storm chances increase, too early to know precip type

12/20-12/31: pattern stable or RELOAD?  

If I’m wrong someone let me know. If it wants to snow after the -AO/NAO sets in then great but D+7 models won’t know until mid month

That looks about right...although looking at GEFS 2m temp AN anomaly the dates could probably roll forward about 5 days. 

[BristowWx]

CMC coming in better for Friday so far…weaker further south…and with inbound 1043 up top.  GFS says suck it 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

CMC coming in better for Friday so far…weaker further south…and with inbound 1043 up top.  GFS says suck it 

Nevermind CMC says suck it too

[Wonderdog]

Gfs hour 210 at 12z much changed from 6z

[Scraff]

20 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Gfs hour 210 at 12z much changed from 6z

Big time changes. Hard to trust the GFS with its wild swings every few hours. I need stable and consistent. (the Euro). 

[North Balti Zen]

Changed how? Was 6z good ? Bad? 

[Winter Wizard]

2 hours ago, H2O said:

Based on the last two weeks of incessant model posts of things 240+ hours away my thoughts have been this

12/5-12/10: pattern starts changing from mild to seasonal or BN

12/12-12/17: storm chances increase, too early to know precip type

12/20-12/31: pattern stable or RELOAD?  

If I’m wrong someone let me know. If it wants to snow after the -AO/NAO sets in then great but D+7 models won’t know until mid month

I'd probably push the first two windows back a few days, otherwise this seems pretty solid to me. Models have had a very tough time handling the Pacific so far this Fall and have been too quick to erode the -PNA again. I'm optimistic that we'll at the very least go neutral by 12/20 while EPO turns back to the negative phase and blocking retrogrades to the Hudson Bay. That's a pretty good look for some potential late month fireworks but no doubt there will be more meltdowns before then. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Winter Wizard said:

I'd probably push the first two windows back a few days, otherwise this seems pretty solid to me. Models have had a very tough time handling the Pacific so far this Fall and have been too quick to erode the -PNA again. I'm optimistic that we'll at the very least go neutral by 12/20 while EPO turns back to the negative phase and blocking retrogrades to the Hudson Bay. That's a pretty good look for some potential late month fireworks but no doubt there will be more meltdowns before then. 

There were meltdowns during 2009-2010.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There were meltdowns during 2009-2010.

Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)

[Yeoman]

32 minutes ago, H2O said:

Based on the last two weeks of incessant model posts of things 240+ hours away my thoughts have been this

12/5-12/10: pattern starts changing from mild to seasonal or BN

12/12-12/17: storm chances increase, too early to know precip type

12/20-12/31: pattern stable or RELOAD?  

If I’m wrong someone let me know. If it wants to snow after the -AO/NAO sets in then great but D+7 models won’t know until mid month

240 hours away from those dates it will be 240 hours out

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)

Air mass was meh but NAO was strongly negative and PNA was positive.  It was nearly the same setup as 2/83 more or less

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2009/us1218.php

 

 

[HighStakes]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)

It had a pretty strong cold air mass and later half of December doesn't have as many Climo issues from the cities on north. There was a decent storm 2 weeks earlier that presented Climo issues for the cities while the suburbs did quite well. 2 weeks later in December pretty much eliminated Climo related problems.