BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's amped, and in December is risky. We can have too much warm air flooding in off the ocean. 52 at OC. Toaster bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's amped, and in December is risky. We can have too much warm air flooding in off the ocean. I’ll take my chances with the thread the needle, let’s hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll take my chances with the thread the needle, let’s hope Yeah we are far from the ocean. Right? Sure that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yeah we are far from the ocean. Right? Sure that works. We are as far away from that storm as we are from the ocean at this point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 IDGAF this is an OP post D10. Still fun to see. CCB crushing NOVA/C MD. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: IDGAF this is an OP post D10. Still fun to see. CCB crushing NOVA/C MD. That would give us a white Christmas. Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 /thread 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: /thread What is this saying? Stronger block better chance of NE snowstorm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That would give us a white Christmas. Maybe. It gets washed away by a lakes cutter. Let's not stress over every OP run in a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Looks like PNA ~neutral on d10. evolves into this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: It gets washed away by a lakes cutter. Let's not stress over every OP run in a La Nina. I'm learning more and more that at this range all you wanna look for is what's happening up top. Had a gut feeling about that timeframe (either that or I'm biased because I'd love a Dec 2009 redux), but for right now we just wanna see if we can get the better pattern first! 18z gefs seemed to show some improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm learning more and more that at this range all you wanna look for is up top. Had a gut feeling about that timeframe (either that or I'm biased because I'd love a Dec 2009 redux), but for right now we just wanna see if we can get the better pattern first! 18z gefs seemed to show some improvement. Yes. IMO, D3 - 5 look at mid levels, D5 and beyond, look upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 That threat on the 10th is beginning to look more and more favorable for our area. 18z EPS/EPS Control/ECMWF all shifted south w/ more cold. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: That would give us a white Christmas. Maybe. That would be about the same time as the 2009 snowstorm. I think that was around Dec 16th-18th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: That would be about the same time as the 2009 snowstorm. I think that was around Dec 16th-18th? Yep--day after the first Avatar came out, and Mappy's wedding, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Pretty nice +PNA coming up Dec 19-29.. don't expect snow before then imo 1-year reverse correlation has been running <-0.50, and this one is extreme.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Could be a white Christmas.. as lifting out of strong -NAO and +PNA is very happy historically. Could be a 10"+ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 If Chuck says a +PNA might be coming, I'm ready to listen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Thanks. Here's the thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 ALEET 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Poor DT. When the PNA is negative, and has been in that phase for >20 days in December, our odds for snowfall are significantly low. Especially since it's technically not Winter yet. Dec 20-24 is our window. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Euro gfs look so different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Snow euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Warm rain gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Ralph's Bermuda slider looking good on Dr No lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Next storm euro a little north...still get some frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The first pbp of the year is in the books! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 For the Dec 9-10 threat, the key difference between the GFS and Euro is the position/strength of the HP over eastern Canada leading into, and during the event. At h5 there is a vortex that gets pinched off underneath between the ridge over eastern Canada and the developing NAO ridge over Greenland on the Euro that is absent on the GFS. This feature increases confluence and enhances HP at the surface, which brings colder air south ahead of the approaching wave, and forces it to track further southward with redevelopment along the coast. The vortex sort of acts as a westward displaced 50/50 low. The CMC has this feature too but further north and somewhat weaker, thus its solution is in between the GFS and Euro. Look at the difference at the surface leading in- 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Nice h5 look and a decent signal for a coastal storm at this range on the EPS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 As we wait for a discreet threat to give us a White Christmas, it is looking increasingly likely that at least the holiday period will bring colder temperatures, which is ingredient number 1 for any snow storm potential….WB CFS and GFS extended centered on the anomalies around the 25th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now