SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Why does the GFS only get good at 384 hours... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Why does the GFS only get good at 384 hours... Because that is when it is least likely to verify? lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 ^well that looks better than the GEFS. Its essentially normal to above normal 2m temps through 384. Not one below normal day that I could find. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Because that is when it is least likely to verify? lol Yeah probably, just find it funny when the GFS has some storm at the end of its range that would be really neat to see play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 7 hours ago, BristowWx said: It'll verify. I'm due to fly home that day from SFO. when I booked that trip in Oct I knew then it would snow one of those days that week. maybe I can make it back in time for some back end love Please video that for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Euro kind of saves the day. Fizzling out Energy does a Miller B - BUT, honestly, a non-pumped system spitting out a little snow is not bad. The trailer looks a bit warm and gets going later but is warm. Things not as great looking all around today as they were in previous days. Transitions are very hard for models to get right.. much less the pieces of energy and how they behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^well that looks better than the GEFS. Its essentially normal to above normal 2m temps through 384. Not one below normal day that I could find. yikes. just imagine when we get a +AO/+NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Euro kind of saves the day. Fizzling out Energy does a Miller B - BUT, honestly, a non-pumped system spitting out a little snow is not bad. The trailer looks a bit warm and gets going later but is warm. Things not as great looking all around today as they were in previous days. Transitions suck on models. as soon as you posted on FB...everything went to the crapper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Ji said: as soon as you posted on FB...everything went to the crapper! AHAHAHAHAHA! You posted too! Whose fault was it really? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: ^well that looks better than the GEFS. Its essentially normal to above normal 2m temps through 384. Not one below normal day that I could find. It is not bitterly cold, but WB 12Z GEFS does cool down toward the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: AHAHAHAHAHA! You posted too! Whose fault was it really? yours because things were still looking good when you posted after i had posted! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 55 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Most fascinating thing about this chart to me is that only 2 storms in 71 years make up 11% of BWI's total storms over 4" That’s only December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: AHAHAHAHAHA! You posted too! Whose fault was it really? The thing that I noticed at h5 is the ridge in the GOM flexing on GEFS over the past few runs which seems to kill the idea of the 9-10th potential....its just too warm...after that who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS says - maybe something. The boards are all kind of quiet or negative today as we realize that things are not as good looking as they once were. Sorry @Ji and everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 6z GFS and 12z Euro show that we still have a possible storm window in the Dec 9-10 window and probably more chances beyond that. But from a RELOAD/pattern point of view, it's become clear that things will take more time and/or be more variable. Two reasons for that that I see. Kudos to Prince GEFS here for sniffing this out sooner than King EPS. 1. Our ridge bridge is not going to capture a piece of the tropospheric PV underneath it like we thought it would. Look here, we're going to get our ridge bridge with the PV underneath! But, it doesn't last. The AK ridging wobbles back west, opening a big fat exit door and the PV escapes. This is what also helps let the SE ridge flex. No PV to squash it down. It also means we're stuck with somewhat mediocre air masses vs some good arctic air. Contrast that to what we thought we'd have as of last weekend. We thought/hoped the ridge bridge would persist, and keep the PV trapped. But it doesn't look like it. 2. The damn -PNA. It's a Nina, so can't be surprised, but it just doesn't want to quit. If we had that PV underneath our -NAO (which does seem wonderfully strong and persistent across all guidance), we could manage the fairly modest -PNA that seems to never want to quit. But without that cold air mass nearby helping to change the waveguide and force a trough over us, even the somewhat mediocre -PNA shown on today's 12z GEFS would give us fits. Not sure how this all plays out besides continuing to counsel patience. The very good news is that we seem to have a very durable -NAO/-AO combination building within the next 3-4 days. It's not fantasy land! The blocking is coming. Question is when we can take advantage. With that blocking around, Op guidance will produce weird solutions and combine that with the Nina and it's not a recipe for long-track storms regardless. With that blocking, if we can time up a shortwave with a fresh airmass, we can cash in quick. 10 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS has a decent signal for a couple of chances next weekend and early the following week. Thats about all we can ask for at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Dam*** Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Yah, potential is there. West Virginia gets buried by the EURO control run with a 968 low in central MD bringing us heavy rain. At least it is not boring….stuff to monitor within December . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 WB 12Z EPS. You need cold for snow. Next 7 days won’t cut it, second 7 day period we need to watch. Hopefully by this time next week we will see a threat in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. You need cold for snow. Next 7 days won’t cut it, second 7 day period we need to watch. Hopefully by this time next week we will see a threat in sight. I feel like I might be missing something but hasn’t this always been the case? It feels like for this whole past week we’ve been targeting the sensible wx flip to lag the pattern flip by about a week. Meaning we’ve never genuinely been expecting cold and snow in the upcoming week, but starting from next weekend (i.e., the 9th on), we might see threats. But even with that, I don’t think anyone was seriously big dog hunting until about a week on from that (from 15th+). To me, that’s all still suggested by the models but maybe I’m missing something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to need patience, but nothing has really changed. have to wait until the 15th onward most likely for anything substantial, but that was always the case 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The damn -PNA. It's a Nina, so can't be surprised, but it just doesn't want to quit. If we had that PV underneath our -NAO (which does seem wonderfully strong and persistent across all guidance), we could manage the fairly modest -PNA that seems to never want to quit. But without that cold air mass nearby helping to change the waveguide and force a trough over us, even the somewhat mediocre -PNA shown on today's 12z GEFS would give us fits. We were debating last year, and other years as well, what is the most important tele for our area ? For snow I think the - AO, but many feel you need a decent Pac. I remember many times when we had a very strong West based block, but the Pac was awful and we never cashed in. Again like you said, it is a Nina, so to be expected. I will believe the snow potential after I measure it on my deck. I am hopeful, but with a fair degree of skepticism. Maybe the pattern requires more time to establish itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, frd said: We were debating last year, and other years as well, what is the most important tele for our area ? For snow I think the - AO, but many feel you need a decent Pac. I remember many times when we had a very strong West based block, but the Pac was awful and we never cashed in. Again like you said, it is a Nina, so to be expected. I will believe the snow potential after I measure it on my deck. I am hopeful, but with a fair degree of skepticism. Maybe the pattern requires more time to establish itself. -AO. It fundamentally increases the chances that cold air masses can (frequently) move from the high latitude source regions and migrate into the midlatitudes. That is how it increases snow chances- we need the cold. A -EPO can also bring cold, but can also tend to be on the dry side and absent a -AO/NAO, the pattern is more progressive with lots of variability in storm tracks. We have to then consider the other indices, such as ENSO state and PNA phase, along with climo, to determine how much our snow chances are increased. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just need patience. And luckily this time of year, we have time to be patient. The best window for us lowlanders is 12/15 - 2/15 from a climo standpoint. IF the models have the progression somewhat close we are in good shape heading into prime climo. That’s about all we can hope for IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Here is your Friday Happy hour pick-me-up(along with a drink) for those who are in need. Right where we want it. 12 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference: This is amazing. Is there any chance you could run this for January and February? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is amazing. Is there any chance you could run this for January and February? Pretty telling what is required for big dogs around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 18z GFS is taking too long with developing the storm for next weekend. Stout HP is right where we need it going into the weekend in a perfect place though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GFS is taking too long with developing the storm for next weekend. Stout HP is right where we need it going into the weekend in a perfect place though Kind of dried it up.. if it is not going to snow, fine with me. Things look different this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is amazing. Is there any chance you could run this for January and February? Pacific and Atlantic have been matching too, at -0.70 correlation. A 4-5SD -NAO is going to be 3SD -PNA (5-6SD -NAO is going to be a 4SD -PNA) (3SD -NAO is going to be a 2SD -PNA, 0time). No snow for us for a while, at least through 384hr. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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