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December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

that system around the 23rd has been showing up on modeling for a while now, and it seems like the ensembles are beginning to parse the broad longwave features. with that said, there are actually a lo

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

EPS is absolutely gorgeous. this is primed for a high end snowfall event anywhere from BOS to RIC around the 15th through late month

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:40 PM, wxmvpete said:

It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come.

 

(My first post. How about that!)

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Welcome....my girlfriend now wife used to live in Sykesville, i had to choose during coming storms if i would stay at her place there or mine in Leesburg at the time. Now we only have Aldie but her friend lives in Westminster if we want to chase :)

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HighStakes

HighStakes

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:19 PM, Weather Will said:

I am setting my expectations low because although the ensembles look good, you have to keep climo in mind for December:  A 1-3 inch storm region wide to get on the board this winter and temps in the 30s on Christmas would be a great start to the winter.  If we get better, I will be pleasantly surprised.  But one should not set the bar too high in December….

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If the pattern is right and comes together as advertised there will be no problem with Climo for mid-December especially where you're located. Outside of the Eastern Shore, cities themselves and low lands no one will have a Climo related issue after December 10th . We haven't seen much snow in recent December's because we have had mostly crap patterns and not because it can no longer snow in December or Climo has changed that dramatically. Sure there are some concerning issues with the marginal events over recent years but not enough that a perfect set up for snow won't longer work in December especially the 2nd half of the month.

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:40 PM, wxmvpete said:

It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come.

 

(My first post. How about that!)

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Woo!!!!! If Twitter implodes, at least it’s dying let me and mappy help talk you into posting some here. Welcome! @membengal on the hellsite 

 

and, eta, he 100% needs the met tag asap.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I know @CAPE doesn't like me doing this ;) but I found this from the great @donsutherland1 in the NYC forum.  Not sure where exactly he found it from... but still looks very nice

  On 12/2/2022 at 2:26 PM, donsutherland1 said:

EPS temperature anomalies for December 12-19. The following week (lower skill) is also colder than normal in much of the East with near normal precipitation. No severe Arctic cold is currently indicated on the weeklies.

image.jpeg.d8b8a578a59d8d7a14fa34a7d5b091ea.jpeg

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:40 PM, wxmvpete said:

It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come.

 

(My first post. How about that!)

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Welcome aboard the crazy train! Followed you on Twitter, but I’m basically done with that crap. Can’t wait for you to meet JI! :lol:

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 2:50 PM, yoda said:

I know @CAPE doesn't like me doing this ;) but I found this from the great @donsutherland1 in the NYC forum.  Not sure where exactly he found it from... but still looks very nice

 

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You can do whatever you want. Don is great and his posts add lots of value to discussions.

I only mentioned it before because you made 3 or 4 reposts of WB maps and they had already been posted and discussed at length in the thread here.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
  On 12/1/2022 at 5:54 PM, Ji said:

and not as subtle hint of suppression!

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Honestly, suppression in Dec is unlikely. At least in a classical sense meaning a legit coastal that scoots south of RIC or something like that. Something weak and convoluted can snow where it shouldn't with a big block.

Front sides of big NAO flexes typically aren't productive here. I parsed the data with storms over 10" some years ago and did NAO graphs of the week leading in. Something like 75% happened with a relaxing anomalous NAO. Just a few during the flex stage or peak stage. Plenty were neutral during snowfall. Positive NAO flukes are there too. 

My total WAG is there won't be suppression of a moderate or large coastal that hits the south only. If there is a legit coastal we will prob end up rooting for suppression lol. 

Once the NAO displaces enough cold air in the east, anyone will be in the game for a small or moderate event imho. It's just a timing thing at that point. South looks to be unusually ripe for an early season snowfall. They love giant neg nao's and a good wave out of the TN valley can get them pretty good without big synoptics

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 3:16 PM, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, suppression in Dec is unlikely. At least in a classical sense meaning a legit coastal that scoots south of RIC or something like that. Something weak and convoluted can snow where it shouldn't with a big block.

Front sides of big NAO flexes typically aren't productive here. I parsed the data with storms over 10" some years ago and did NAO graphs of the week leading in. Something like 75% happened with a relaxing anomalous NAO. Just a few during the flex stage or peak stage. Plenty were neutral during snowfall. Positive NAO flukes are there too. 

My total WAG is there won't be suppression of a moderate or large coastal that hits the south only. If there is a legit coastal we will prob end up rooting for suppression lol. 

Once the NAO displaces enough cold air in the east, anyone will be in the game for a small or moderate event imho. It's just a timing thing at that point. South looks to be unusually ripe for an early season snowfall. They love giant neg nao's and a good wave out of the TN valley can get them pretty good without big synoptics

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Now I'm guessing the time it takes for such relaxations varies?

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snowmagnet

snowmagnet

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:20 AM, mappy said:

Was really fun (and stressful) tracking that one. @Kmlwxand I were posting on accuweather together ahead of it. I remember sitting at my aunts house after rehearsal with a bottle of wine when the snow started lol

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Dec 2009 was a really fun tracking event from more than a week away.  I'm just an amateur, but an avid snowstorm lover.   I didn't use Twitter or this forum back then, but I have a distinct memory of watching a lot of Howard Bernstein and following Foot's Forecast on Facebook.  I loved that storm because we had snow on the ground for Christmas and we had a nice long winter break.  Altogether, 2009-2010 is my favorite winter, but Jan 2016 was the best event for me.  I think that was my first winter on this forum and it was amazing.  It is so nice to resonate with a community of winter weather lovers!

It's definitely the most wonderful time of the year!  Happy tracking, everyone!

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, leesburg 04 said:

Welcome....my girlfriend now wife used to live in Sykesville, i had to choose during coming storms if i would stay at her place there or mine in Leesburg at the time. Now we only have Aldie but her friend lives in Westminster if we want to chase :)

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aldie lol? youll be lucky to see slush this year. Aldie might as well be in Fairfax county..

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

12z GGEM has some arctic cold at the end of its run west of the Mississippi River behind what looks to be a future cutter at 240 looking at h5 I think with a 1034 HP up in Canada but I don't think that will save us... granted I am probably wrong lol

This run of the GFS takes away our Dec 8-10 threat as the SLP manages to sneak through between one HP leaving and one incoming. 

Onto the ensembles though

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Quasievil

Quasievil

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, The Dude said:

Welcome!  Good to see you here.

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  On 12/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, DarkSharkWX said:

Welcome!

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  On 12/2/2022 at 1:48 PM, Solution Man said:

Congrats 

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  On 12/2/2022 at 2:30 PM, WxUSAF said:

Request submitted. Welcome @wxmvpete!

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This place sure has gotten polite! ;)

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/2/2022 at 6:05 PM, osfan24 said:

Very interesting that, at least for December, it seems like a PNA+ is the most important feature for a significant storm and the chance of a storm. I guess because we need the cold air more in December than later in the winter?

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Farther north is less dependent on the PNA, as it can benefit from Miller B storms that phase or rapidly develop too late to benefit most of the Mid-Atlantic region. 

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