Eskimo Joe Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome! Looks like you need a met tag @WxUSAF can you help with that? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome! Good to see you here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome....my girlfriend now wife used to live in Sykesville, i had to choose during coming storms if i would stay at her place there or mine in Leesburg at the time. Now we only have Aldie but her friend lives in Westminster if we want to chase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Congrats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am setting my expectations low because although the ensembles look good, you have to keep climo in mind for December: A 1-3 inch storm region wide to get on the board this winter and temps in the 30s on Christmas would be a great start to the winter. If we get better, I will be pleasantly surprised. But one should not set the bar too high in December…. If the pattern is right and comes together as advertised there will be no problem with Climo for mid-December especially where you're located. Outside of the Eastern Shore, cities themselves and low lands no one will have a Climo related issue after December 10th . We haven't seen much snow in recent December's because we have had mostly crap patterns and not because it can no longer snow in December or Climo has changed that dramatically. Sure there are some concerning issues with the marginal events over recent years but not enough that a perfect set up for snow won't longer work in December especially the 2nd half of the month. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Welcome! Looks like you need a met tag @WxUSAF can you help with that? I think he has to go through @dendrite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 46 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Woo!!!!! If Twitter implodes, at least it’s dying let me and mappy help talk you into posting some here. Welcome! @membengal on the hellsite and, eta, he 100% needs the met tag asap. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2022 Author Share Posted December 2, 2022 Request submitted. Welcome @wxmvpete! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Request submitted. Welcome @wxmvpete! I liked your post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I know @CAPE doesn't like me doing this but I found this from the great @donsutherland1 in the NYC forum. Not sure where exactly he found it from... but still looks very nice 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: EPS temperature anomalies for December 12-19. The following week (lower skill) is also colder than normal in much of the East with near normal precipitation. No severe Arctic cold is currently indicated on the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome aboard the crazy train! Followed you on Twitter, but I’m basically done with that crap. Can’t wait for you to meet JI! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, yoda said: I know @CAPE doesn't like me doing this but I found this from the great @donsutherland1 in the NYC forum. Not sure where exactly he found it from... but still looks very nice You can do whatever you want. Don is great and his posts add lots of value to discussions. I only mentioned it before because you made 3 or 4 reposts of WB maps and they had already been posted and discussed at length in the thread here. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: Welcome aboard the crazy train! Followed you on Twitter, but I’m basically done with that crap. Can’t wait for you to meet JI! Shhhh!!!!! Stop embarrassing us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 21 hours ago, Ji said: and not as subtle hint of suppression! Honestly, suppression in Dec is unlikely. At least in a classical sense meaning a legit coastal that scoots south of RIC or something like that. Something weak and convoluted can snow where it shouldn't with a big block. Front sides of big NAO flexes typically aren't productive here. I parsed the data with storms over 10" some years ago and did NAO graphs of the week leading in. Something like 75% happened with a relaxing anomalous NAO. Just a few during the flex stage or peak stage. Plenty were neutral during snowfall. Positive NAO flukes are there too. My total WAG is there won't be suppression of a moderate or large coastal that hits the south only. If there is a legit coastal we will prob end up rooting for suppression lol. Once the NAO displaces enough cold air in the east, anyone will be in the game for a small or moderate event imho. It's just a timing thing at that point. South looks to be unusually ripe for an early season snowfall. They love giant neg nao's and a good wave out of the TN valley can get them pretty good without big synoptics 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) Welcome!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Honestly, suppression in Dec is unlikely. At least in a classical sense meaning a legit coastal that scoots south of RIC or something like that. Something weak and convoluted can snow where it shouldn't with a big block. Front sides of big NAO flexes typically aren't productive here. I parsed the data with storms over 10" some years ago and did NAO graphs of the week leading in. Something like 75% happened with a relaxing anomalous NAO. Just a few during the flex stage or peak stage. Plenty were neutral during snowfall. Positive NAO flukes are there too. My total WAG is there won't be suppression of a moderate or large coastal that hits the south only. If there is a legit coastal we will prob end up rooting for suppression lol. Once the NAO displaces enough cold air in the east, anyone will be in the game for a small or moderate event imho. It's just a timing thing at that point. South looks to be unusually ripe for an early season snowfall. They love giant neg nao's and a good wave out of the TN valley can get them pretty good without big synoptics Now I'm guessing the time it takes for such relaxations varies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 14 hours ago, mappy said: Was really fun (and stressful) tracking that one. @Kmlwxand I were posting on accuweather together ahead of it. I remember sitting at my aunts house after rehearsal with a bottle of wine when the snow started lol Dec 2009 was a really fun tracking event from more than a week away. I'm just an amateur, but an avid snowstorm lover. I didn't use Twitter or this forum back then, but I have a distinct memory of watching a lot of Howard Bernstein and following Foot's Forecast on Facebook. I loved that storm because we had snow on the ground for Christmas and we had a nice long winter break. Altogether, 2009-2010 is my favorite winter, but Jan 2016 was the best event for me. I think that was my first winter on this forum and it was amazing. It is so nice to resonate with a community of winter weather lovers! It's definitely the most wonderful time of the year! Happy tracking, everyone! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, wxmvpete said: It can be vary from run to run given the ensembles involved, but it does give at least an early glimpse for some areas to keep an eye on in the days to come. (My first post. How about that!) wooohoo! Good to see you friend (its me, Katie ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Welcome aboard the crazy train! Followed you on Twitter, but I’m basically done with that crap. Can’t wait for you to meet JI! we follow each other on twitter if im thinking its the right guy. He posts alot about weather, eagles,redskins,baseball lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Welcome....my girlfriend now wife used to live in Sykesville, i had to choose during coming storms if i would stay at her place there or mine in Leesburg at the time. Now we only have Aldie but her friend lives in Westminster if we want to chase aldie lol? youll be lucky to see slush this year. Aldie might as well be in Fairfax county.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 12z GGEM has some arctic cold at the end of its run west of the Mississippi River behind what looks to be a future cutter at 240 looking at h5 I think with a 1034 HP up in Canada but I don't think that will save us... granted I am probably wrong lol This run of the GFS takes away our Dec 8-10 threat as the SLP manages to sneak through between one HP leaving and one incoming. Onto the ensembles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, The Dude said: Welcome! Good to see you here. 3 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said: Welcome! 3 hours ago, Solution Man said: Congrats 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Request submitted. Welcome @wxmvpete! This place sure has gotten polite! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Quasievil said: This place sure has gotten polite! wait till the first storm that snows in some places in the area and rains on everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ji said: aldie lol? youll be lucky to see slush this year. Aldie might as well be in Fairfax county.. I'm west of your location so we will see not sure how that big Walmart by your house will affect your snow to slush ration. Leesburg is a UHI now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 For reference: 9 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference: Thank you so much for making that! A very good reference (Now don't be surprised if the DC folks ask for one next, lol Although I'm not sure how much different it would be for December) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference: Very interesting that, at least for December, it seems like a PNA+ is the most important feature for a significant storm and the chance of a storm. I guess because we need the cold air more in December than later in the winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Very interesting that, at least for December, it seems like a PNA+ is the most important feature for a significant storm and the chance of a storm. I guess because we need the cold air more in December than later in the winter? Farther north is less dependent on the PNA, as it can benefit from Miller B storms that phase or rapidly develop too late to benefit most of the Mid-Atlantic region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: For reference: Most fascinating thing about this chart to me is that only 2 storms in 71 years make up 11% of BWI's total storms over 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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