December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It says "experimental"?

I guess it’s R&D which give them an out if it doesn’t happen.  The beauty of R&D

[AtlanticWx]

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

Yes yes it is. You’d never know looking at that we are on the cusp of something potentially quite possibly perhaps maybe pretty decent

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We usually dont rely on Miller A types or storms coming out of the GOM during Ninas. That ridge reflection is a base state im fairly certain. And wrt your other post, yes the linkage between the NAO and SER isnt unheard of and certainly could be one possibility. Of more importance to me is we are losing that strong TPV near Hudson that ens were showing being almost stationary. That feature was allowing waves/fronts to keep plowing underneath and was heliping to flatten the SER. Something else to keep an eye on. Things could be a million times worse, theres a reason teleconnection perfection is rare.

Yeah, I knew it is a nina response however, prefer it further east, ala 95-96 and other more favorable nina years with blocking. Miller b to A hybrids are pretty common in those. 

    Agree on that TPV near Hudson. 

[Benjamn3]

25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’ll never forget Dev 2009.  Enough snow for 2 winters…come Xmas day it was warm and rainy…almost wasn’t a white Xmas if memory serves. We are champions snow melters in the MA

You got that right. I live in the hills of VA 30 mins North or Roanoke and even in the mountains we can’t seem to even buy a seasonable Xmas. 

[Eskimo Joe]

25 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

As others have said several times, namely @WxUSAF, do not look at OP models past D10. This is especially true with potentially volatile pattern changes.

[mappy]

36 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’ll never forget Dev 2009.  Enough snow for 2 winters…come Xmas day it was warm and rainy…almost wasn’t a white Xmas if memory serves. We are champions snow melters in the MA

Dec 2009 was the best snowstorm ever hands down and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise. Though, I may be biased  

[AtlanticWx]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As others have said several times, namely @WxUSAF, do not look at OP models past D10. This is especially true with potentially volatile pattern changes.

The trends regarding the TPV lobe getting pulled further west are well within D10, occuring around ~D6

[Solution Man]

33 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

Numb Clown Runs…expect it

[BristowWx]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

Dec 2009 was the best snowstorm ever hands down and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise. Though, I may be biased  

It was you are so right. 20 inches plus at my shit location. Probably 60 at yours  But my point was the cold did not hold.  I lost a lot and the rain didn’t help.  Nothing is easy for us.  Peace be with you.  don’t hurt me.  Jan 2016 was better.  Ok I’m done.  

[Cobalt]

While the trends in pattern progression look to mimic the 18z GFS through the medium range (not good), the 18z GEFS also looks to be picking up on the potential 9th/10th event.

A few scattered hits and misses on the individual members, but the idea is there.

[GrandmasterB]

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

18z GFS is a dumpster fire, literally.

I did some research and it looks like Germantown typically has a few feet of pack in place by Dec 15. I advise cancelling winter per this op run.

[mappy]

26 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It was you are so right. 20 inches plus at my shit location. Probably 60 at yours  But my point was the cold did not hold.  I lost a lot and the rain didn’t help.  Nothing is easy for us.  Peace be with you.  don’t hurt me.  Jan 2016 was better.  Ok I’m done.  

lol I wasnt where I am now in 2009. And I was kidding. I know it’s not the best storm we’ve gotten, but it was super memorable for me and that’s what makes it my favorite. Jan 2016 was cool for sure, tho. 

[Chris78]

With the - Nao forecasted to be so strong should we want a nutreual to slightly negative pna ? Feels like alot of action south of us with a strong Greenland block and a ridge out west.

[Ralph Wiggum]

33 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

P05 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

With the - Nao forecasted to be so strong should we want a nutreual to slightly negative pna ? Feels like alot of action south of us with a strong Greenland block and a ridge out west.

Someone posted something on this either here or on Twitter in the last week. We still don’t want a super strong -PNA. 

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, mappy said:

Dec 2009 was the best snowstorm ever hands down and I’ll fight anyone who says otherwise. Though, I may be biased  

That was a great storm. I was at Millersville Univ at the time working 2nd shift IT. We were really sweating the northern edge leading up to the event. A lot of the model guidance was giving the Mason-Dixon Line about 8"-12", but Harrisburg less than 5". You could tell CTP was really sweating it because their AFD was very conservative. The Thursday night before the storm, the 12z guidance came in much snowier across the board and the watches went up almost as soon as the Euro OP finished. The 00z guidance came in and boom warnings. I wound up driving back to Philly early for the holiday and my graduation was canceled.

[DarkSharkWX]

We can work with a slightly negative/netural PNA with all the blocking/alaskan ridging we have

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

With the - Nao forecasted to be so strong should we want a nutreual to slightly negative pna ? Feels like alot of action south of us with a strong Greenland block and a ridge out west.

No. +PNA, -AO always

[cbmclean]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

P05 

I give that one the SE Visitor Seal of Approval(tm)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: 

Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. 

Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021

cold again followed

that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: 

Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. 

Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021

cold again followed

that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.

Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good one. I’m still skeptical of a big snow because of the big -nao for this exact reason. -pna is a bit too negative for my liking… for now. Could change as modeled, though. And if this plays out like those two analogs, we could be looking at a really good January. 

I like the -AO that's been building, especially over Russia, since August. 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was a great storm. I was at Millersville Univ at the time working 2nd shift IT. We were really sweating the northern edge leading up to the event. A lot of the model guidance was giving the Mason-Dixon Line about 8"-12", but Harrisburg less than 5". You could tell CTP was really sweating it because their AFD was very conservative. The Thursday night before the storm, the 12z guidance came in much snowier across the board and the watches went up almost as soon as the Euro OP finished. The 00z guidance came in and boom warnings. I wound up driving back to Philly early for the holiday and my graduation was canceled.

Was really fun (and stressful) tracking that one. @Kmlwxand I were posting on accuweather together ahead of it. I remember sitting at my aunts house after rehearsal with a bottle of wine when the snow started lol

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Was really fun (and stressful) tracking that one. @Kmlwxand I were posting on accuweather together ahead of it. I remember sitting at my aunts house after rehearsal with a bottle of wine when the snow started lol

The neat thing about that storm was the fact that it was just a solid cold powder event with minimal temp issues. It really illustrated how strong the blocking was setting up that winter. Ironically, I was at a geography conference in New Paltz, NY in October 2009 and there was a grad student at SUNY who was researching NAO spatial relationships with the upcoming winter. They had forecast that a NAO which went negative during the summer, and was focused near a certain lat/lon had a statistically significant correlation to above average snowfall but not necessarily temperature in the northeast US. they had gone out on a limb and said the summer of 2009 NAO matched up with a forecast of above average snowfall for the upcoming winter. I've been trying to find the conference proceedings from that event to see if I could get the presentation or locate the authors, but alas I've come up empty.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Was really fun (and stressful) tracking that one. @Kmlwxand I were posting on accuweather together ahead of it. I remember sitting at my aunts house after rehearsal with a bottle of wine when the snow started lol

That's right around when I started exiting my full-on weenie years and becoming a much more balanced weather nerd. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS has PNA heading in the positive direction and getting to neutral by the 13th….hopefully that verifies.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

That's right around when I started exiting my full-on weenie years and becoming a much more balanced weather nerd. 

Suuuuure 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Suuuuure 

I'm much more cynical now lol

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm much more cynical now lol

Happens as you age