frd Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Good to hear from you man. Patience no doubt for the both of us but the coastal plain may have to be even more patient. I did like the 12z eps not just for the burnt orange in right spots but also the quicker release of the "handshake" between the Canadian TPV and the break-off ULL off Cali. Resulting in a more neutral PNA. I get the pitfalls of parsing LR progs but the stout NAO seems like a pretty good bet. The ancillary pluses and minuses may dictate whether we need to break out snowblowers or just continue our Nina frustration. At least the beginning of this flick has grabbed our attention! Agreed. I don't want to set expectations too high. Happy to track the evolution of the cold and maybe we avoid the recent string of warm days after the 20th of December in recent years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 10 hours ago, Weather Will said: In his WB blog earlier last week, JB stated he has concerns for “severe cold” around mid month. He also said in one of his videos that he did not want to lose viewers by stating how the pattern will evolve in January….(the implication was torch in January.) Who knows but calling for a torch at some point once this pattern finally (and it will eventually) breaks isn’t a bold call. One trend the last 10 years or so is that when it’s an unfavorable pattern the east coast torches. We don’t see a little above normal, it’s either a favorable pattern or it’s almost shorts weather in DC. I’m exaggerating slightly, but only slightly. And he will just can kick to Feb or March and say delayed not denied no matter what happens. He is way easier to predict than the weather. 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: 2010? Should we be concerned, or is our collective ptsd from that year making me biased? Lolol 3 hours ago, WxUSAF said: It didn’t work out great for us and we have the Boxing Day fiasco, but I think we’d all roll with that chance again. Agree with Wxusaf. We all know the limitations of a Nina. But the general pattern of 2010-11 puts us in the game. What went wrong with Boxing Day was more complicated than just “Nina”. There was a messy interaction between streams. Change the timing a few hours and we could have been crushed. It can happen. 1996, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Jan 2011, March 2018. Coastals don’t always miss us in a Nina. We can’t change the fact it’s a Nina and we should remain tempered somewhat by that fact, but ill take a repeat of 2010-11 and let the chips fall. I think the biggest difference between 1996 and 2011 was just bad dumb luck more than anything else. 36 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: Is Greenland really as far west as Minnesota? Greenland is so close to the pole it’s as far west as lots of places. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Delayed and denied is off to an early start this year! 3 hours ago, IronTy said: Oh shit. Wife just fired a CEO literally 2min ago and I was privy to it all. Arctic express can't be far behind. Is that what they're calling 7/11 managers these days? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Bundle up weenies 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 hours ago, nj2va said: Bundle up weenies Outside of like three people on this forum I want to know who wakes up and facepalms themselves thinking "Ah geez! I was wrong about the cold...Webb was right!!" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 While we patiently wait, I thought this video from NBC 4 Meteorologist Ryan Miller may help to keep expectations in check with regards to December snow… When Will D.C. See Snow? Here's a Look at Winter Trends https://www.nbcwashington.com/weather/when-will-d-c-see-snow-heres-a-look-at-winter-trends/3218470/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Will, who are you talking to? Everyone on this board knows how hard December snow is to come by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Will, who are you talking to? Everyone on this board knows how hard December snow is to come by. I personally have to be reminded….I am not a patient individual…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I personally have to be reminded….I am not a patient individual…. Well man around here you have to be. As Bob and a couple others have already alluded to...all we got right now is a potential pattern that might be serviceable. Then from there you wait to see if that materializes, then wait another week to see if anything pops up as it relaxes, then wait to see if what pops up actually turns into something to track...then see if that holds till inside a couple days, then.... So basically...a big lesson in patience, lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 As @Bob Chill mentioned there is a relationship between December strong - NAO ( - 1.2 or less ) and the following months of January and February. Data from Allan Huffman 6 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Morning view from the GEFS I believe this is near @CAPE 's favored window for snowfall. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I approve of this post! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 15 hours ago, Yeoman said: Delayed and denied is off to an early start this year! Is that what they're calling 7/11 managers these days? It's Wawa down here. Managers who don't sell enough coffee are out on the street. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 As many here already know, the skill of the CFS model for the next month is highest after the 27 th day of the month prior to the forecast given. Therefore, the current modeling by the CFS for this coming December may not be very far-fetched. Of note, there is a signal here later in December for increased moisture potential in the East. Might be from a Miller A or Miller B, hard to tell, but the signal is there. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Several interesting developments to keep track of moving forward: The rapid snow cover extent in the NH, and thoughts about the Hunga-Tonga Volcano erruption in Dec. 2021 and effects on the PV. ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 Crazy -NAOs can do amazing things. For instructional purposes and to show the type of opportunities we could see in December with this type of block: This is a complete big dog H5 pattern. Mega west-based -NAO, longitudinally extended trop PV underneath, and a strong shortwave entering in CA. But it’s mid-December and a Niña, both of which are factors working against big dogs. GFS squashes this shortwave, which is not a surprising outcome in a Niña. Still, we might get some enticing Op runs in the days ahead. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 WB 12Z GFS looks much better than 6Z….I am thinking that is why it was so quiet in here earlier… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, frd said: Several interesting developments to keep track of moving forward: The rapid snow cover extent in the NH, and thoughts about the Hunga-Tonga Volcano erruption in Dec. 2021 and effects on the PV. ... iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: iirc, prior to winter 95-96 there was an eruption of Mt Pinatubo. And mets correlated the harsh Nina winter in part to this same hypothesis this scientist has noted. Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pinatubo and HT are VERY different eruptions and Pinatubo was 4 years before 95-96 winter. Yeah and didn't Pinatubo have like...a negative effect on our snow chances back then? I know we had a moderate niño around 1992 or so that didn't produce much, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 I mean yeah ya can't shovel pattern...but it's hard not to like having multiple shots of it to try and get something 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah and didn't Pinatubo have like...a negative effect on our snow chances back then? I know we had a moderate niño around 1992 or so that didn't produce much, lol Yes. Canonical volcanic climate response is summertime continental cooling and wintertime warming due to a strong +AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean yeah ya can't shovel pattern...but it's hard not to like having multiple shots of it to try and get something Anyone have a translation for "k=1 CHI"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 28 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyone have a translation for "k=1 CHI"? I'm allergic to equations, so I'll happily defer...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyone have a translation for "k=1 CHI"? Chi-squared distribution - Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 59 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Anyone have a translation for "k=1 CHI"? 19 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Chi-squared distribution - Wikipedia He’s referring to the MJO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/mjo_chi.shtml 200mb velocity potential is termed “chi” and “k=1” refers to wavenumber one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 I am intrigued by this 5H evolution down the pike. Might have to wander out of hibernation 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now