December 2022 Medium-Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

December to remember or another Niña dud?

[mattie g]

I’m not changing my snowfall predictions (not yet anyway ), but LFG!

[Ralph Wiggum]

28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

December to remember or another Niña dud?

We are going to remember this December....either as a LR ens tease that never produced OR as a wintry Dec. Im leaning towards the latter.

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

December to remember or another Niña dud?

Guess all we can do is wait and speculate till we see what shall precipitate 

But seriously, I've been wondering if the nina (finally) being on it's last legs could help us a little...or perhaps be slightly easier to overcome with favorable ao/nao. I mean yeah enso state is obviously a broader feature...but I am curious (with measured expectations of course)

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Who knows...maybe we're due for something decent in December.  It's been a loooong time since there was anything really wintry in that month.  I think 2013?  Now, I'm not talking 2009 level HECS, but something like a "December 5th" moderate event to actually get us on the board and actually feel like the season.  Just so we're not going through the month with a near torch, and by the time Christmas arrives we're hoping that 2+ weeks out ensemble forecasts for sometime in January, that some mythical fine pattern MIGHT show up.  And I think we can do without a muggy, warm Christmas Eve (2015).

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Who knows...maybe we're due for something decent in December.  It's been a loooong time since there was anything really wintry in that month.  I think 2013?  Now, I'm not talking 2009 level HECS, but something like a "December 5th" moderate event to actually get us on the board and actually feel like the season.  Just so we're not going through the month with a near torch, and by the time Christmas arrives we're hoping that 2+ weeks out ensemble forecasts for sometime in January, that some mythical fine pattern MIGHT show up.  And I think we can do without a muggy, warm Christmas Eve (2015).

I feel like to closest thing we had to a Dec. 5th scenario I think was like 2017? Whatever it was it snowed about 1-2 inches here, it came earlier than expected...and I had to drive home (including on the highway) from a gig in it...and it was frickin' epic and my first time driving in powder, lol (mom was in the car and she wasn't having fun)

P.S. The only time a muggy Christmas is acceptable is if a HECS follows in Jan/Feb a la 66', 83' and of course 16'

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

I’m not changing my snowfall predictions (not yet anyway ), but LFG!

I got halfway there in Sept...officially backed off me gloom and doom then, but for right now I'm not gonna change mine either, lol (I didn't make an official guess in the thread though...woulda said 15-18" but ehhh I don't know!)

[mattie g]

At this point, I’m just keeping an eye on the ensembles to see if there’s any variability at or around December 7. Loving that pig NAO and the EPO doing their thing consistently run over run.

[WxUSAF]

 

[IronTy]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

December to remember or another Niña dud?

What's Bastardi got to say?  I think it's the real deal this time. 

[Daniel Boone]

19 minutes ago, IronTy said:

What's Bastardi got to say?  I think it's the real deal this time. 

For some odd reason he's not saying much . At least not on Twitter. 

[cbmclean]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

For some odd reason he's not saying much . At least not on Twitter. 

I'm not sure if that's encouraging or scary.

[IUsedToHateCold]

9 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

December to remember or another Niña dud?

I’d rather have snow than a car with an ugly bow on it 

[CAPE]

Well we have tracked the hell out of this advertised upcoming pattern, so I suppose now we keep checking to see if it holds or morphs, and eventually materializes.

Then we will see if it actually delivers. 

[aldie 22]

December 6th is our next 70 degree day

[CAPE]

If the pattern evolves as currently depicted, realistically any frozen potential is beyond day 10. Continuing to see indications of waves sliding along the boundary in the Dec 8-12 window, but its pretty scattered wrt timing among ensemble members as expected this far out.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

December 6th is our next 70 degree day

And probably the last of 2022

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

And probably the last of 2022

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, CAPE said:

If the pattern evolves as currently depicted, realistically any frozen potential is beyond day 10. Continuing to see indications of waves sliding along the boundary in the Dec 8-12 window, but its pretty scattered wrt timing among ensemble members as expected this far out.

 

Agreed. Im wondering if the traditional Nina  shred factory will be in play or if Chuck's -PNA actually helps to offset the fast flow under the TPV in south central Canada.

[Weather Will]

10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

For some odd reason he's not saying much . At least not on Twitter. 

In his WB blog earlier last week,  JB stated he has concerns for “severe cold” around mid month.  He also said in one of his videos that he did not want to lose viewers by stating how the pattern will evolve in January….(the implication was torch in January.)

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  The probability maps say no strong signal for a storm the next 2 weeks.  It is still too early to be analyzing every run….

The press of colder air is hopefully just delayed and not denied…but not cold enough the next 2 weeks.

[nj2va]

We’re about to enter stage 3 of the Mid Atl LR thread emotional cycle - “impatience leads to calls for winter to be over”  Realistically there are no threats to track over the next 10ish days so people will get bored and start to psychoanalyze the pattern change - if OP runs don’t show big winter threats in fantasy land or ensembles show the pattern delayed by 12 hours, all hope will be lost by some here. 

Let’s get to tracking the 75 degrees on 12/6 
 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

33 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  The probability maps say no strong signal for a storm the next 2 weeks.  It is still too early to be analyzing every run….

The press of colder air is hopefully just delayed and not denied…but not cold enough the next 2 weeks.

Probability maps are by far the most accurate and reliable form of LR modeling that we have at our disposal. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Well we have tracked the hell out of this advertised upcoming pattern, so I suppose now we keep checking to see if it holds or morphs, and eventually materializes.

Then we will see if it actually delivers. 

One small step ahead of you 

13 hours ago, mattie g said:

At this point, I’m just keeping an eye on the ensembles to see if there’s any variability at or around December 7. Loving that pig NAO and the EPO doing their thing consistently run over run.

 

[Weather Will]

I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…

This SER flex has been modeled well imo. There was always a 4-8 day stretch where it was shown to pump (even link briefly with the NAO?) before getting beat down. Ive been riding the patience train and keep reminding folks that it will be after the 6th that we can start looking at some colder weather. Now whether that gets kicked out to mid dec and beyond, who knows? But the SER flex and period of AN has always been there on the ens. It is also this feature that allows waves to track along the boundary/gradient when the waves start marching across.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I feel like to closest thing we had to a Dec. 5th scenario I think was like 2017? Whatever it was it snowed about 1-2 inches here, it came earlier than expected...and I had to drive home (including on the highway) from a gig in it...and it was frickin' epic and my first time driving in powder, lol (mom was in the car and she wasn't having fun)

P.S. The only time a muggy Christmas is acceptable is if a HECS follows in Jan/Feb a la 66', 83' and of course 16'

I was thinking there was some smaller event a few years back but couldn't recall which December that was.  I believe you're correct, that was 2017.

[Bob Chill]

A very reliable rule of thumb in the MA with a real/stable block is we get our chance later. Usually after peak neg NAO anomaly on the relax. Makes logical sense as we often need a series of carves to finally start getting sprawling cold. Super slim odds in Dec with any hit and run cold. If the -nao starts pinning banana like highs in good places it's off to the races for tracking. It's going to take some time before things are favorable here imho

[mattie g]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am not saying cancel December but that patience will be needed….6Z WB EPS this week (which no one saw as cold and stormy) will verify and not be…

I’m honestly not sure what you’re saying in this post.

That timeframe has been showing up as having higher heights over much of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS for days and days now. It’s five or so days later that the Scandinavian Ridge retrograde and we see higher heights established all across the higher latitudes.

[WxUSAF]

21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A very reliable rule of thumb in the MA with a real/stable block is we get our chance later. Usually after peak neg NAO anomaly on the relax. Makes logical sense as we often need a series of carves to finally start getting sprawling cold. Super slim odds in Dec with any hit and run cold. If the -nao starts pinning banana like highs in good places it's off to the races for tracking. It's going to take some time before things are favorable here imho

Ensembles last night can kicked by 24-48hrs. They precise timing has been bouncing around so it’s not exactly a notable change. And as I’ve said several times, I don’t mind a modest can kick while our climo gets better day by day.