December 2022

[EastonSN+]

THIS is where the ridge off the east coast would be handy! Instead of this wave sliding off the coast, would hopefully move it NNE.

Not expecting anything just a snapshot in modeling time.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s interesting to me how recent cold outbreaks the past several winters have the cold predominantly spilling into the plains and moderating east. I suspect that’s part of why we haven’t even approached record setting BN temps in a long while, though I know the metro area record lows will probably never be broken. At least in NJ I know some days go as low as -30 which, being honest, I absolutely can’t even fathom ever happening again. 

The question I have is if we see a set up again similar to say 1989 where the axis of arctic cold is centered squarely on the east, is it still possible for us to reach low single digits or negative degrees? Will we ever see another high max barely reaching double digits or is this a feature of the past?

That could still happen occasionally the high was 10 degrees in Jan 1994 and 7 degrees in Jan 1985.  That usually means suppressed systems so dry and cold though.  In 1994 our very snowy pattern actually happened a few weeks after those below zero temps, before that it was mostly mixed precip and lots of freezing rain and sleet.

 

[Stormlover74]

In case you thought the gfs was just bad for us. This is inside of 72 hours

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

50s to teens in six hours, pretty fascinatingly absurd 

I think this kind of droppage also happened in the March 1888 blizzard-- not sure how extreme that was but might have been even more than this.

 

[mikem81]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

In case you thought the gfs was just bad for us. This is inside of 72 hours

 

So it shifts west for US and east for them? 

[crossbowftw3]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this kind of droppage also happened in the March 1888 blizzard-- not sure how extreme that was but might have been even more than this.

 

Could also be a way to describe the “schoolchildren’s blizzard” from the high plains two months previously: 

From Nat.Geo

“On January 12, 1888, the so-called “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard” kills 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northwest Plains region of the United States. The storm came with no warning, and some accounts say that the temperature fell nearly 100 degrees in just 24 hours.”

Veracity of the accounts is something I’m not so sure of, mind you 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this kind of droppage also happened in the March 1888 blizzard-- not sure how extreme that was but might have been even more than this.

 

Low 60s to upper 10s would challenge the all-time December 24 hr  temperature drop at Newark set in 1998.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=dec&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks I wondered if this was like a milder version of that month!  I wonder if we will flip to a warmer pattern as extremely as we did that winter or if it will get milder but more tempered (so an all around less extreme version of the wild temperature swings of that winter)....ironic that 1989-90 had one of the longest periods between first and last temp in the single digits!

 

A warmup just before or around the New Year seems likely. Its duration and magnitude is far from certain. Some residual Atlantic blocking could persist in combination with a neutral or somewhat positive PNA. That could temper the warmth--warmer than normal at least for a time, but not necessarily record-challenging warmth. A popular argument might entail the MJO's returning to colder phases by mid-January (?) to argue for a return of colder weather, but MJO forecasts are low skill beyond 7-10 days.

[Great Snow 1717]

32 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Could also be a way to describe the “schoolchildren’s blizzard” from the high plains two months previously: 

From Nat.Geo

“On January 12, 1888, the so-called “Schoolchildren’s Blizzard” kills 235 people, many of whom were children on their way home from school, across the Northwest Plains region of the United States. The storm came with no warning, and some accounts say that the temperature fell nearly 100 degrees in just 24 hours.”

Veracity of the accounts is something I’m not so sure of, mind you 

A great read. Brings people back to when winter was truly life threatening.

Amazon.com: The Children's Blizzard: 9780060520762: Laskin, David: Books 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s interesting to me how recent cold outbreaks the past several winters have the cold predominantly spilling into the plains and moderating east. I suspect that’s part of why we haven’t even approached record setting BN temps in a long while, though I know the metro area record lows will probably never be broken. At least in NJ I know some days go as low as -30 which, being honest, I absolutely can’t even fathom ever happening again. 

The question I have is if we see a set up again similar to say 1989 where the axis of arctic cold is centered squarely on the east, is it still possible for us to reach low single digits or negative degrees? Will we ever see another high max barely reaching double digits or is this a feature of the past?

I think that, along with reduced intensity of the Arctic air masses, is a big reason why single digit readings in New York City and subzero lows outside of City with the exception of areas that radiate really well have become uncommon. Direct Arctic discharges from the north typically lead to the coldest temperatures. The upcoming Arctic air mass, which will set numerous records in the southern and central plains will be no exception. Its core will not reach Newark or New York City. As a result, Atlanta and Nashville will likely have lower minimum temperatures than New York City once December concludes. Savannah could come close to New York City's monthly minimum reading, too.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s interesting to me how recent cold outbreaks the past several winters have the cold predominantly spilling into the plains and moderating east. I suspect that’s part of why we haven’t even approached record setting BN temps in a long while, though I know the metro area record lows will probably never be broken. At least in NJ I know some days go as low as -30 which, being honest, I absolutely can’t even fathom ever happening again. 

The question I have is if we see a set up again similar to say 1989 where the axis of arctic cold is centered squarely on the east, is it still possible for us to reach low single digits or negative degrees? Will we ever see another high max barely reaching double digits or is this a feature of the past?

The big ridges off of both coasts since the super El Niño in 15-16 have been forcing what little cold there has been down the Plains. 
 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Interestingly enough the CMC has some of the flash freeze elements the GFS has. It goes from upper 50s to upper 20s over a 6hr period. 

Flash freezes are very rare but so is this system. If you just like interesting weather then Friday could be fun.

[tristateweatherFB]

I am hearing about a flash freeze.  Yes spots will ice up but remember with the wind it will dry out pretty quickly which will help.   Contractors be ready but I don’t expect an ice rink out there.  Just watch the puddles freezing up

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, tristateweatherFB said:

I am hearing about a flash freeze.  Yes spots will ice up but remember with the wind it will dry out pretty quickly which will help.   Contractors be ready but I don’t expect an ice rink out there.  Just watch the puddles freezing up

you would need precip to be falling to get a true flash freeze-once the rain ends, dry air will pour in as temps drop-the wind and dry air will take care of most paved surfaces outside of puddles/standing water anywhere.

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

50s to teens in six hours, pretty fascinatingly absurd 

Flash freeze seems sorta likely 

[donsutherland1]

In much of the coastal plain, including New York City and Philadelphia, cold winter winds will howl at the end of the week, but snowflakes will be largely absent. As a result, there will be a growing chance that December 2022 could have the lowest snowfall for any winter month during with the Arctic Oscillation averaged -2.000 or below. January 1998 currently holds the record for New York City and Philadelphia. Monthly snowfall futility records for winter months with an AO average of -2.000 or below follow:

[Allsnow]

What a torch on the gefs 

[Winterweatherlover]

Chicago is now mixing on the storm this week lol can't believe this was at one time out in the atlantic, the long range models are terrible. 

[HailMan06]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Look at all the warmth in Eastern Canada going back to last spring....

Didn’t they have a full-fledged TC make landfall earlier this year?

[Winterweatherlover]

54 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Interestingly enough the CMC has some of the flash freeze elements the GFS has. It goes from upper 50s to upper 20s over a 6hr period. 

Flash freezes are very rare but so is this system. If you just like interesting weather then Friday could be fun.

I think there will be a big drop quick but it won't be as crazy as some models are hinting. Probably end up in like the mid to upper 20s on the coast.  

[LoboLeader1]

Flash freeze or not, this artic air is transcient at best. Let's hope we don't see a mild January.

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Chicago is now mixing on the storm this week lol can't believe this was at one time out in the atlantic, the long range models are terrible. 

It’s why it’s a fallacy to say “the cutters always work out 6 days in advance but the NYC snowstorms don’t”. We couldn’t care less if the cutter changes 150-200 miles in track, it’s still a cutter and washout. But for Chicago it makes a big difference. A change like that for us is always a big deal. 

[milleand]

16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Chicago is now mixing on the storm this week lol can't believe this was at one time out in the atlantic, the long range models are terrible. 

I tend to disagree. The long range models picked up on a rather significant storm, unfortunately the storm just isn't what we would like it to be. 

[Allsnow]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’s why it’s a fallacy to say “the cutters always work out 6 days in advance but the NYC snowstorms don’t”. We couldn’t care less if the cutter changes 150-200 miles in track, it’s still a cutter and washout. But for Chicago it makes a big difference. A change like that for us is always a big deal. 

Chicago is over a foot on all the guidance…

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Chicago is over a foot on all the guidance…

But wichita went from 10.5 to .5 on the gfs in 1 day

[Brian5671]

38 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

Didn’t they have a full-fledged TC make landfall earlier this year?

yep into Nova Scotia-very strong hurricane Fiona

[Intensewind002]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep into Nova Scotia-very strong hurricane Fiona

It was essentially their version of Sandy but even stronger if i remember correctly.

[Volcanic Winter]

I’ll take my lumps if we don’t see snow for a while, but I will literally get down on all fours and beg to avoid a protracted torch. A couple days of 50+ yeah, of course that’s unavoidable.

At the very least, let’s stay in the game please. 

[Allsnow]

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mexico FTW.