December 2022

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Just landed at O Hare. 10F with a light dusting on ground.

 

They have winter

Did you go there to chase this next snowstorm?

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Big flash freeze Friday night? Dangerous 

Yes, dont drink that night lol.

I had a friend who got badly injured because he was drinking at a work Christmas Party and he did all the right stuff (got a cab to go home, etc.) but unfortunately he broke his ankle when he got out of the cab right in front of his house by falling on the ice.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Right and it's such a fine line in these patterns, the storm track is what makes or breaks a season.

 

back in the day mets often said storms like to travel along the dividing line between cold and warm air. They would often speak of where the snowpack was to determine a possible storm track.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

back in the day mets often said storms like to travel along the dividing line between cold and warm air. They would often speak of where the snowpack was to determine a possible storm track.

I remember this for one of the reasons the models were often too warm for the 93-94 winter....remember they predicted so many snow to rain scenarios that winter and the snow always hung around longer than expected and we also had some extended mixing events.

Now we also have to deal with warm waters and warm air over water that is affecting the storm tracks.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Agree. Sell on any big wind issues. The gfs is the only one showing it. That should tell you all you need to know 

Euro shows it too but I think they'll both back off as we get closer. 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the cause for the extreme cold that made that monthly average a historic 25.5....was that the coldest December on record by average temp, Don?

 

It was a combination of factors that led to a persistent period of much below normal temperatures:

1. An expansive pool of abnormally cold air had been located on our side of the Northern Hemisphere, which was reinforced by strong cross-polar flow
2. There had been a persistent PNA ridge
3. There had been a nearly three week period of strong Atlantic blocking

The cross-polar flow ended around December 21 with Atlantic blocking ending a day later. There was a lag before the coldest air mass of the season could be scoured out of the eastern U.S. But that happened as December closed. The last day of December saw the mercury reach a monthly high of 53° in New York City. Prior to that, the monthly high had been 48°.

Pacific flow developed. By mid-January 1990, strong Pacific flow prevailed and most of the cold was located over Eurasia. Sustained winter weather was largely finished.

The upcoming cold air mass, which will likely set records in parts of the Southern and Central Plains later this week is not as cold nor as expansive as the frigid December 1989 air mass. Moreover, a larger area of cold is located over Eurasia and areas of much greater warmth than had been present in 1989 prevail over many other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

[mikem81]

I wouldnt be surprised if we had a winter event next week before the pattern changes day 10-15.

AO rapidly rising; we usually have an event right before a pattern change. I think the Day 10-15 is ugly and then we can revaluate after 1/2 or so.  

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was a combination of factors that led to a persistent period of much below normal temperatures:

1. An expansive pool of abnormally cold air had been located on our side of the Northern Hemisphere, which was reinforced by strong cross-polar flow
2. There had been a persistent PNA ridge
3. There had been a nearly three week period of strong Atlantic blocking

The cross-polar flow ended around December 21 with Atlantic blocking ending a day later. There was a lag before the coldest air mass of the season could be scoured out of the eastern U.S. But that happened as December closed. The last day of December saw the mercury reach a monthly high of 53° in New York City. Prior to that, the monthly high had been 48°.

Pacific flow developed. By mid-January 1990, strong Pacific flow prevailed and most of the cold was located over Eurasia. Sustained winter weather was largely finished.

The upcoming cold air mass, which will likely set records in parts of the Southern and Central Plains later this week is not as cold nor as expansive as the frigid December 1989 air mass. Moreover, a larger area of cold is located over Eurasia and areas of much greater warmth than had been present in 1989 prevail over many other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Thanks I wondered if this was like a milder version of that month!  I wonder if we will flip to a warmer pattern as extremely as we did that winter or if it will get milder but more tempered (so an all around less extreme version of the wild temperature swings of that winter)....ironic that 1989-90 had one of the longest periods between first and last temp in the single digits!

 

[CIK62]

Look where you have to be Jan. 02, AM to have even a slight chance at <20*.       Our only chances here are the 25th, 26th  AM periods.  (not shown)

Now as far wind from the failed snowstorm are concerned, they are peaking here, then quickly dropping

to 30+:

 

[Stormlover74]

17 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I wouldnt be surprised if we had a winter event next week before the pattern changes day 10-15.

AO rapidly rising; we usually have an event right before a pattern change. I think the Day 10-15 is ugly and then we can revaluate after 1/2 or so.  

Yeah we have a narrow window from the 25th thru the 28th for something to pop. The 12/27/90 event was supposed to be an inch or two and ended up being 6 to 8". It warmed up and all melted 2 days later but it was a nice event

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah we have a narrow window from the 25th thru the 28th for something to pop. The 12/27/90 event was supposed to be an inch or two and ended up being 6 to 8". It warmed up and all melted 2 days later but it was a nice event

That was a nice event in years of warmth lol

6"+ events were very rare in that era-- that was the long duration wet snow to heavy snow event right?  Was that the one where it snowed for like 36 hours in a very narrow area between Newark and the Hamptons?

[TugHillMatt]

On 12/18/2022 at 5:08 AM, LibertyBell said:

Looks like we're all been suffering from that southwesterly flow, which means the area between Erie and Buffalo does well but no one else.

Same reason temperature departures are so high (both in the summer and the winter) even for areas far north of here (and SST too).

 

Absolutely. That SW flow torches the Syracuse area off the hills to the south. I hate it. We've had many overnight highs throughout the year because of it. The boiling water off the coast isn't helping either.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was a nice event in years of warmth lol

6"+ events were very rare in that era-- that was the long duration wet snow to heavy snow event right?  Was that the one where it snowed for like 36 hours in a very narrow area between Newark and the Hamptons?

We had about 5 inches here caked with ice at the end-great event but then we torched rest of way...

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

We had about 5 inches here caked with ice at the end-great event but then we torched rest of way...

Yeah even that event was unexpected, it was supposed to be a frontal passage with some brief light rain/snow and then a wave developed and stalled out offshore.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Absolutely. That SW flow torches the Syracuse area off the hills to the south. I hate it. We've had many overnight highs throughout the year because of it. The boiling water off the coast isn't helping either.

So this is all happening because of the same anomalously warm water.

On a brighter note you gotta be excited about the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, I'm headed that way for it-- hoping the weather holds out since early April can be touch and go.  Don't know which is a better spot for it-- Watertown or Syracuse lol.

 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was a nice event in years of warmth lol

6"+ events were very rare in that era-- that was the long duration wet snow to heavy snow event right?  Was that the one where it snowed for like 36 hours in a very narrow area between Newark and the Hamptons?

No it was an overnight storm that ended as sleet. The one you're thinking of was Feb 91

[JustinRP37]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Just landed at O Hare. 10F with a light dusting on ground.

 

They have winter

Was there still smoke billowing out of the United Center from the smoking the Rangers gave the Blackhawks last night? 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is all happening because of the same anomalously warm water.

On a brighter note you gotta be excited about the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, I'm headed that way for it-- hoping the weather holds out since early April can be touch and go.  Don't know which is a better spot for it-- Watertown or Syracuse lol.

 

Look at all the warmth in Eastern Canada going back to last spring....

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is all happening because of the same anomalously warm water.

On a brighter note you gotta be excited about the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024, I'm headed that way for it-- hoping the weather holds out since early April can be touch and go.  Don't know which is a better spot for it-- Watertown or Syracuse lol.

 

April will be a good time to come up. We get more snow in the Spring than winter these days...lol. Go to Watertown. It's closer to the cold source. Lol. Actually, I suggest the Thousand Islands, not far from Watertown. Beautiful area.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Look at all the warmth in Eastern Canada going back to last spring....

Right and it was there in the summer too-- it's basically a year round thing now.  Lobster season is getting bad, TCs are forming and tracking farther north, etc.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No it was an overnight storm that ended as sleet. The one you're thinking of was Feb 91

Thanks that was another really good unpredicted snowstorm from that snowless/warm era lol.

 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks that was another really good unpredicted snowstorm from that snowless/warm era lol.

 

That winter ended up close to average snowfall despite how warm it was. The storms were timed well

[FPizz]

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It was a combination of factors that led to a persistent period of much below normal temperatures:

1. An expansive pool of abnormally cold air had been located on our side of the Northern Hemisphere, which was reinforced by strong cross-polar flow
2. There had been a persistent PNA ridge
3. There had been a nearly three week period of strong Atlantic blocking

The cross-polar flow ended around December 21 with Atlantic blocking ending a day later. There was a lag before the coldest air mass of the season could be scoured out of the eastern U.S. But that happened as December closed. The last day of December saw the mercury reach a monthly high of 53° in New York City. Prior to that, the monthly high had been 48°.

Pacific flow developed. By mid-January 1990, strong Pacific flow prevailed and most of the cold was located over Eurasia. Sustained winter weather was largely finished.

The upcoming cold air mass, which will likely set records in parts of the Southern and Central Plains later this week is not as cold nor as expansive as the frigid December 1989 air mass. Moreover, a larger area of cold is located over Eurasia and areas of much greater warmth than had been present in 1989 prevail over many other parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

 

It’s interesting to me how recent cold outbreaks the past several winters have the cold predominantly spilling into the plains and moderating east. I suspect that’s part of why we haven’t even approached record setting BN temps in a long while, though I know the metro area record lows will probably never be broken. At least in NJ I know some days go as low as -30 which, being honest, I absolutely can’t even fathom ever happening again. 

The question I have is if we see a set up again similar to say 1989 where the axis of arctic cold is centered squarely on the east, is it still possible for us to reach low single digits or negative degrees? Will we ever see another high max barely reaching double digits or is this a feature of the past?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Yep further east and weaker this run 

[SnoSki14]

Now that's an Arctic front. Less secondary this time so winds are lower. 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Now that's an Arctic front. Less secondary this time so winds are lower. 

50s to teens in six hours, pretty fascinatingly absurd 

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If you look at the same timeframe on Pivotal weather it looks nothing like this. I'm not buying it. 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

If you look at the same timeframe on Pivotal weather it looks nothing like this. I'm not buying it. 

It has been like that on several runs the past couple days.  Interesting.  

[JTA66]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

If you look at the same timeframe on Pivotal weather it looks nothing like this. I'm not buying it. 

I wouldn’t buy anything the globals are showing regarding post frontal frozen at this range. If the mesos have this look inside 36 hours, I might get interested.