December 2022

[SnoSki14]

30 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

50s? I'm not so sure. The maps are volatile noting the Euro just tried to pop a coastal at 120 hours. Not that it has very large implications but heavier rain and more easterly winds would tend to hold down temps. Let's see what happens there's still some uncertainty.

WX/PT

It should be pretty easy to pop 50s if there are SW winds even with a lot of rain/clouds 

[CIK62]

THIS................

 

becomes THIS and seems Normal overall for the 10 days.

[wdrag]

Anyway: I hope we don't get shut out interior.  Seems like we should get some ice or snow. I noticed the 12z/18 UKMET has a little slug of snow for the I84 corridor later Thursday. That could be ptype problem and not converting partly to ice?  A decent band of FGEN shows on the Pivotal website at about 102-108 hours both 850 MB and 700MB and its subzero at those levels so we may have a chance small accumulative snow inland nw-n-ne of NYC??

That's me--- still holding onto hope. 18Z RDPS did not post anywhere as far as I know as of 435PM... definitely late. 

[wdrag]

RDPS 18z available on the Meteocentre web site.  Ice far nw NC and far w VA at 84 hours. 

[donsutherland1]

Dry but cool weather will continue through Wednesday. Afterward, a powerful storm could bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region Thursday and Friday. A general 1"-2" of precipitation appears likely with some locally higher amounts. A light snow accumulation remains possible at the onset of the storm and as it moves away from the region. Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures could tumble into the teens in New York City.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

However, there are cases where Decembers with strong blocking have seen much below normal snowfall. The three cases with less than 1" of monthly snowfall with a monthly average AO of -1.500 or below were: 1985: 0.9" (total seasonal snowfall: 13.0"); 1996: Trace (total seasonal snowfall: 10.0"); and, 2012: 0.4" (total seasonal snowfall: 26.1"). The lowest December snowfall when the AO averaged -2.000 or below was 5.1" in 1976. Total seasonal snowfall was 24.5". There is a chance that the December 1976 record futility could be surpassed this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.236 today.

On December 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.602 (RMM). The December 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.607 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

[Winterweatherlover]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Anyway: I hope we don't get shut out interior.  Seems like we should get some ice or snow. I noticed the 12z/18 UKMET has a little slug of snow for the I84 corridor later Thursday. That could be ptype problem and not converting partly to ice?  A decent band of FGEN shows on the Pivotal website at about 102-108 hours both 850 MB and 700MB and its subzero at those levels so we may have a chance small accumulative snow inland nw-n-ne of NYC??

That's me--- still holding onto hope. 18Z RDPS did not post anywhere as far as I know as of 435PM... definitely late. 

Definitely still possible to see some front end frozen well inland although with the east wind situation again probably gonna be hard within 50 miles of the coast. 

[tmagan]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes and in 2014 it was almost on March 1st!  When was the last time it got into the single digits in March around here?

The coldest March weather I can remember was what followed the 1993 blizzard.

Weird thing about 1990 was that it was in the 80s just two weeks after that single digit reading and then it snowed at the start of April.

 

March 19, 1967. Safe to say we will never see another later date in our lifetime.

[CIK62]

Again let me stress that it seems to me everyone of these wind gust posts I have made, have failed to live up to the billing they had.      I live near the open ocean and should have noted some of these past gusts---but they have failed since the summer I'd say.      So for the record here are the gusts out of the southeast---hence no snow.....................

 

[tmagan]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Did 1989-1990 have the largest gap between first and last single digit lows in the modern era (from the 1950s onwards)?  As I recall the low in December was an utterly frigid 4 degrees.  The only colder December reading I can remember was a shocking negative 1 on Christmas morning 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow!)

 

The answer is yes, this may surprise you, but it is the eleventh longest timespan in the Park's history. Nine of the other ten date back before WWII.

[tmagan]

5 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Again let me stress that it seems to me everyone of these wind gust posts I have made, have failed to live up to the billing they had.      I live near the open ocean and should have noted some of these past gusts---but they have failed since the summer I'd say.      So for the record here are the gusts out of the southeast---hence no snow.....................

 

A word of caution: The ECMWF, which is notorious for overdoing wind gusts, is no where near these numbers.

[qg_omega]

Wind does not look impressive

[nycsnow]

38 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Wind does not look impressive

? Every model has winds into the 50-60 range yes the 70 is over done but 50-60 is a significant event 

[eduggs]

The aftermath of next week's massive vortex looks miserable. Windy and bitterly cold with the continental height field entirely dominated for days.

[MJO812]

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Misleading graphic. There's little, if any actual snow for our area there. I think the rapid movement and extreme temp gradient of the front is playing tricks on the ptype algorithm.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Wind does not look impressive

You're a troll

Temps crash from 60 to teens in 18hrs. That's a massive pressure gradient 

[Eduardo]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We Grinch!

[SnowGoose69]

I find it funny that even Detroit and Indianapolis are mostly rain now

[nycsnow]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You're a troll

Temps crash from 60 to teens in 18hrs. That's a massive pressure gradient 

50-60mph gust every model locked in

[Tatamy]

54 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Misleading graphic. There's little, if any actual snow for our area there. I think the rapid movement and extreme temp gradient of the front is playing tricks on the ptype algorithm.

Would the same be said for the 0z GEFS mean?  Some interesting outputs on some of the members.

[SnowGoose69]

57 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Misleading graphic. There's little, if any actual snow for our area there. I think the rapid movement and extreme temp gradient of the front is playing tricks on the ptype algorithm.

Yeah that isn't a setup where this area sees rain to snow...there are only 2 or 3 setups where that happens and this is not one of them.   The closed 500 low like 2/8/13 or 12/25/02 is the most common although the 2 setups were not exactly the same as one was a Miller B and the other was really a strange hybrid, I would not call Christmas 02 a Miller A or B.  The other setups are all similar and usually involve some type of surface low formation on a front and require a negative tilt or semi stall...this thing is just progressing too fast 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, tmagan said:

March 19, 1967. Safe to say we will never see another later date in our lifetime.

Near 0 and a heavy snowstorm too correct?  What a late date to have that combo.  April 1982 was also very cold and at an even later date with heavy snow during the day, but not quite as frigid as what happened in March 1967.  

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah that isn't a setup where this area sees rain to snow...there are only 2 or 3 setups where that happens and this is not one of them.   The closed 500 low like 2/8/13 or 12/25/02 is the most common although the 2 setups were not exactly the same as one was a Miller B and the other was really a strange hybrid, I would not call Christmas 02 a Miller A or B.  The other setups are all similar and usually involve some type of surface low formation on a front and require a negative tilt or semi stall...this thing is just progressing too fast 

What about March 2005?

Wasn't Christmas 2002 a Miller C?

There were also a couple of storms in February 2010 where we went heavy rain to heavy snow.

I also remember one from the early 90s when a front produced rain and then stalled as a cyclone formed off the coast and it snowed for 36 straight hours lol that sounds like it describes what you mentioned-- that one was a positive bust since no one expected that to occur and it wasn't predicted anywhere and the area of heavy snow was very narrow-- basically Newark to the Hamptons!  Got 8 inches here!  It was mostly wet snow at 33-34 during the day but really started to stick that night.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

The aftermath of next week's massive vortex looks miserable. Windy and bitterly cold with the continental height field entirely dominated for days.

If you want cold weather this is the way you get cold weather.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I find it funny that even Detroit and Indianapolis are mostly rain now

What's the farthest west a storm has ever cut in recorded history lol?

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, tmagan said:

The answer is yes, this may surprise you, but it is the eleventh longest timespan in the Park's history. Nine of the other ten date back before WWII.

Wow that was another season of extremes!  You said 9 out of the other 10 were before WWII-- was the 10th one more recent than 1989-90?

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Dry but cool weather will continue through Wednesday. Afterward, a powerful storm could bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region Thursday and Friday. A general 1"-2" of precipitation appears likely with some locally higher amounts. A light snow accumulation remains possible at the onset of the storm and as it moves away from the region. Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures could tumble into the teens in New York City.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

However, there are cases where Decembers with strong blocking have seen much below normal snowfall. The three cases with less than 1" of monthly snowfall with a monthly average AO of -1.500 or below were: 1985: 0.9" (total seasonal snowfall: 13.0"); 1996: Trace (total seasonal snowfall: 10.0"); and, 2012: 0.4" (total seasonal snowfall: 26.1"). The lowest December snowfall when the AO averaged -2.000 or below was 5.1" in 1976. Total seasonal snowfall was 24.5". There is a chance that the December 1976 record futility could be surpassed this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.236 today.

On December 16 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.602 (RMM). The December 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.607 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

Don, how close did December 1989 get to being on this list?  We had very light snowfalls about once a week that very cold month and I believe the AO was very negative and the total monthly snowfall didn't amount to much.  Most of the snow we got that season was in the Thanksgiving storm-- we must have had a two month very negative AO that season and then it flipped to extreme positive.

It's nice to see 2012-13 still on this list though maybe that's a warmer version of the 1989-90 pattern (like this season might be too) where you get low snowfall in December but the warmer offshore waters result in a developing coastal bomb for February?

It's amazing to have 1976-77 anywhere near this list since that was so historically cold and a weak el nino to boot.  I wonder why we didn't have much snow that winter and why it warmed up so rapidly in February?  That was a characteristic of the 80s too (cold dry Januarys and mild Februarys.)

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It should be pretty easy to pop 50s if there are SW winds even with a lot of rain/clouds 

Hell we had 55 with heavy rain and SE gale force winds in Jan 1994 with the low the previous morning of ZERO DEGREES!  60 may be a bit difficult but 50-55 is easy.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, CIK62 said:

THIS................

 

becomes THIS and seems Normal overall for the 10 days.

So the warmth gets here starting on the 29th?  Sustained temps in the 50s and sunny? That's not bad if that's what happens.

 

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, how close did December 1989 get to being on this list?  We had very light snowfalls about once a week that very cold month and I believe the AO was very negative and the total monthly snowfall didn't amount to much.  Most of the snow we got that season was in the Thanksgiving storm-- we must have had a two month very negative AO that season and then it flipped to extreme positive.

It's nice to see 2012-13 still on this list though maybe that's a warmer version of the 1989-90 pattern (like this season might be too) where you get low snowfall in December but the warmer offshore waters result in a developing coastal bomb for February?

It's amazing to have 1976-77 anywhere near this list since that was so historically cold and a weak el nino to boot.  I wonder why we didn't have much snow that winter and why it warmed up so rapidly in February?  That was a characteristic of the 80s too (cold dry Januarys and mild Februarys.)

December 1989 had 1.4” of snow. The remainder of the winter saw 7.3” of snow.