December 2022

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yep we're down to maybe a 3 day cold shot after friday's cutter. Then a very warm period. 

Going to torch imo. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to torch imo. 

CONUS wide too so at least everyone's getting screwed.

Maybe it's a good thing given recession/inflation. Low heating costs. 

If models are correct then give me a prolonged spring. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

CONUS wide too so at least everyone's getting screwed.

Maybe it's a good thing given recession/inflation. Low heating costs. 

If models are correct then give me a prolonged spring. 

It will take weeks to reverse this to a ideal winter pattern for the east 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

It will take weeks to reverse this to a ideal winter pattern for the east 

That long ?

Kudos to you for not believing this great pattern. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep we're down to maybe a 3 day cold shot after friday's cutter. Then a very warm period. 

It’s tough to bet against the perma ridge to our east which has been setting record after record since 15-16.

 

 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That long ?

Kudos to you for not believing this great pattern. 

Come back on Jan 15 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s tough to bet against the perma ridge to our east which has been setting record after record since 15-16.

 

 

It's hard to deny the effects of AGW. 

That ridge will eventually be responsible for a Major hurricane slamming directly into us

[FPizz]

24 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep we're down to maybe a 3 day cold shot after friday's cutter. Then a very warm period. 

20s on the CMC for that same day.  Upper 30s on the gfs, which is still a decent amount below our average high.  

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Come back on Jan 15 

I will be here every day 

[EastonSN+]

Side note for the newbies - this 4 year stretch is nothing compared to 96/97 through 01/02. 

That period had two absolute ratters and was warmer. That being said, a similarity would be each stretch had 1 above average snowfall winter (00/01 and 20/21).

This year is to be decided of course. 12/13 also had 1 snowfall in December as well and turned out well especially City east.

We shall see but will be fun either way.

[gravitylover]

46 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Explain what a meteorologist interprets with respect to model output? What is the reference point for that interpretation? And what does that have to do with wishing the word "pattern" went out of use?

You might say, for example, that a model outcome doesn't fit a "pattern." But how is a future model outcome separate from a future modeled "pattern." They are both unknown and both depicted by modeling. 

 

I see way too much predicting how a model will behave rather than interpreting the current weather and then forecasting the potential going forward. When I took meteorology courses in college 35+ years ago we looked at what was happening in key areas of the hemisphere and drew maps for however many days in the future using a variety of methods to help determine what could happen. We obviously didn't have the computer power available now so we used science, math and historic references and made a few maps with different outcomes then tried to home in on the most likely result. Sometimes now I get the feeling that forecasting is done solely off what the model thinks it sees rather than what's actually happening. 

[psv88]

17 hours ago, Parsley said:

Ha! 

Happy holidays buddy! Hope you and the fam. are doing well. Lots of mud and puddles down this way, like most Decembers.

Same to you! Hope all is well brother!

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Remember when it was supposed to be cold after Xmas….

I wish I could believe what the models are actually showing. My confidence in them are extremely shaken. I am ok with a warm up. Want to avoid 45 and rainy.

[WarrenCtyWx]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Side note for the newbies - this 4 year stretch is nothing compared to 96/97 through 01/02. 

That period had two absolute ratters and was warmer. That being said, a similarity would be each stretch had 1 above average snowfall winter (00/01 and 20/21).

This year is to be decided of course. 12/13 also had 1 snowfall in December as well and turned out well especially City east.

We shall see but will be fun either way.

There was also a stretch from the winters of 49-50 through 54-55 where Central Park never even recorded 20 inches for the whole season. Six winters in a row! Poor early 50s weenies.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

There was also a stretch from the winters of 49-50 through 54-55 where Central Park never even recorded 20 inches for the whole season. Six winters in a row! Poor early 50s weenies.

Yup. Happened before will happen again. 

[psv88]

Looks like the snow blower is staying in the box 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wish I could believe what the models are actually showing. My confidence in them are extremely shaken. I am ok with a warm up. Want to avoid 45 and rainy.

The Pacific refusing to go along with this -NAO/AO pattern to such an extent that the SE Ridge is actually linking with the NAO block does it for me. The pieces are there but get chased away like dust bunnies by this massive cutter. This month is done, hopefully Jan can turn things around. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like the snow blower is staying in the box 

It didn't get work after our 0.5" on Mon AM? What a pity.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's hard to deny the effects of AGW. 

That ridge will eventually be responsible for a Major hurricane slamming directly into us

Yup. This front coming through will cool those waters down somewhat but these marine heatwaves even more than the global indices are driving the patterns these days. The Australia marine heatwave has helped create more of a Nina pattern than would be the case if those waters were cooler. I've said for a while that 20-30 years from now our climate will probably resemble the VA Tidewater. It snows there in the right setups but I don't think there's any question we're due for payback from our epic 10-15 winters run. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Alpha Zero plays such remarkable high level chess that even grandmasters admit that humans would not be able to "find" some of Alpha Zero's moves.  

Yes. Kasparov has noted how impressive AI has become. It has enormous potential if used wisely.

[uofmiami]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Looks like the snow blower is staying in the box 

Knew it was a jinx when you posted you had gotten one.  Hopefully we’ll break it in January. 

[Stormlover74]

50s to teens by Friday night

[donsutherland1]

Some delayed thoughts on the use of computer models in meteorology, as I was watching the World Cup. IMO, the computer models have reached the stage where, if even top-of-the-line meteorologists competed against the models head-to-head without computer guidance, the models would consistently perform better.

Of course, meteorologists recognize how valuable the models are and how much they have progressed. They provide amazing insight and are powerful forecasting tools. Not surprisingly, the models are used widely.

As for the upcoming storm, even as a plurality of ensemble members briefly showed a significant snowfall, there was also a distinctive minority that showed the outcome that now seems most likely. And, as a cautionary note, the national blend of models showed 2.5" snow for the New York City. That was a reasonable starting point that should have grounded expectations.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

50s to teens by Friday night

50s? I'm not so sure. The maps are volatile noting the Euro just tried to pop a coastal at 120 hours. Not that it has very large implications but heavier rain and more easterly winds would tend to hold down temps. Let's see what happens there's still some uncertainty.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

Euro looks interesting after the cutter.  A storm chance ?

 

Blocking continues

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks interesting after the cutter.  A storm chance ?

 

Blocking continues

Nah, everyone shut the blinds already 

[wdrag]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Back in the day the setup for late Thursday/Friday would often lead to a secondary low developing along the eastern seaboard.  That seems to be happening with less frequency than in the past. Can you offer up some reasons as to why that is happening less often?

Thank you.

I'm sorry, I don't really know.  I think a secondary is going to occur along our Delmarva-NJ coast but not much factor, in comparison to the deepening of the vertically deep cyclonic circulation over the eastern Great Lakes. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro looks interesting after the cutter.  A storm chance ?

 

Blocking continues

Yeah there is definitely an opportunity after the cutter. GEM was close. 

[wdrag]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

As for the upcoming storm, even as a plurality of ensemble members briefly showed a significant snowfall, there was also a distinctive minority that showed the outcome that now seems most likely.

Just a note here: I hear OUTLIER lingo on coming events, especially beyond a few days.  Here is a case where the outliers (a distinct minority as Don noted) are correct. That's why stats are part of the solution (whiskers of possibilities) but can't be a sole determinant without some sort of thoughtful consideration. 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I'm sorry, I don't really know.  I think a secondary is going to occur along our Delmarva-NJ coast but not much factor, in comparison to the deepening of the vertically deep cyclonic circulation over the eastern Great Lakes. 

Walt,

  Thanks for the reply!