December 2022

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, Tatamy said:

What you just described did actually happen in the area on 2/2/76.  SLP bombed out on an arctic front just east of ACY that morning.  There are few here that are old enough to remember that one however it was quite spectacular while it lasted.  The pressure at my location on the north shore fell to 966 mb with heavy rain going to freezing rain, sleet, and ultimately blizzard conditions for a time with continuous lightning and thunder.  

Wow I wish I could have experienced that!  Are there any local snowfall totals from the area?  Even if the totals aren't spectacular, it sounds like a very exciting event with all sorts of heavy precip culminating in a short duration heavy snowstorm/blizzard!

It kind of seems like to me like a better version of March 2005-- remember that-- started as rain, temperatures crashed and it changed over to heavy snow.

Another one which was like that (actually two) were the latter events in February 2010.  Both started out as rain and changed to heavy snow, one changed right in the middle of the day and the other one later in the afternoon.  Both gave us a foot of snow after we had had an inch of rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a December La Niña combined with a near +1 PNA and -4AO was 12-30-00. But notice how the usual 50/50 low east of New England has been replaced by a ridge. This used to be a decent KU signal for us this time of year. 

PNA

2000 12 26  0.921
2000 12 27  0.928
2000 12 28  0.963
2000 12 29  1.081
2000 12 30  1.075
2000 12 31  0.895

AO

2000 12 25 -4.343
2000 12 26 -4.208
2000 12 27 -4.239
2000 12 28 -4.635
2000 12 29 -4.688
2000 12 30 -4.115
2000 12 31 -3.606

 

 

wow that actually could have been an analog for this season since it was a third year la nina too.  We still have time before the end of the month to make it happen ;-)

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seriously. Just yesterday they showed a great pattern and in a couple runs they totally flipped for the LR. They can just as easily flip again. So anyone taking a NYE torch as gospel just needs to look at the runs the past two days!

Wouldn't it be hilarious if the reason they flipped warmer is the same reason they flipped on the snowstorm?  Maybe IF the snowstorm had happened we would have THEN had the sustained cold pattern, but WITHOUT the snowstorm we will get a New Years torch instead!

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember waking up to that.  It was the first snow day in my school district since 1969.  I have some old Central Park ob's...peak wind gust was 59 mph and temp dropped from about 35 at 5am to 11 at 9am.  Temp didn't budge from the low teens the rest of the day.

 

Thanks Ed, do you perchance know how much snow fell at NYC and our Queens airports?

Kind of reminds me of March 2005 or the two mid-late February 2010 storms.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Just goes to show how much better the EPS is than the GEFS near the end of it’s effective day 10 range. At least the EPS had the hint of the ridge building east of New England. But the GEFS had the classic 50/50 low in the same spot. The day 8-15 forecasts almost always miss the ridge axis along 60W. This has been the model bias since the super El Niño in 15-16. 

New forecast

Old forecasts

Chris, when you posted those model accuracy plots I noticed the GFS went below the 0.6 threshold at 10 days and was only barely above it at 9 days.  The Euro on the other hand was above the 0.6 threshold going all the way out to 11 days.  I suspect the CMC would be similar?

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, MANDA said:

Tatamy and NorthShore.  I also remember that event so well.  I was 14 years old.  It was a Monday morning, and I went to bed Sunday night with temperatures in the m/u 50's.  Woke up early on morning of the second to thunder and lightning.  Laid in bed a bit and then heard the wind howling, more flashes of lightning.  Did not hear any rainfall and thought that was odd.  Got up and looked out the window and there were blizzard conditions.  Checked my Taylor thermometer and it was 17 degrees.  Blizzard conditions raged for about 2 hours.  Only about 2" snow but wind howled for hours, and temperatures held in the teens all day.  Lived near the Bayonne waterfront and went for a walk along the shore late morning.    Everything was encased in frozen spray and the bay was a raging with whitecaps.  Great little event often forgotten.

That does sound like March 2005-- more extreme though.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, tmagan said:

The one thing I forgot about that winter until looking it up a few years ago was that there was a single digit low reading on February 26, 1990 in the Park. Of all the winters since, there has been only one other winter with a later single digit low in the Park: February 28, 2014.

Yes and in 2014 it was almost on March 1st!  When was the last time it got into the single digits in March around here?

The coldest March weather I can remember was what followed the 1993 blizzard.

Weird thing about 1990 was that it was in the 80s just two weeks after that single digit reading and then it snowed at the start of April.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, tmagan said:

The one thing I forgot about that winter until looking it up a few years ago was that there was a single digit low reading on February 26, 1990 in the Park. Of all the winters since, there has been only one other winter with a later single digit low in the Park: February 28, 2014.

Did 1989-1990 have the largest gap between first and last single digit lows in the modern era (from the 1950s onwards)?  As I recall the low in December was an utterly frigid 4 degrees.  The only colder December reading I can remember was a shocking negative 1 on Christmas morning 1980 (accompanied by a coating of snow!)

 

[mahk_webstah]

12 posts in a row.  Is that a record?

[mahk_webstah]

Actually 15

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Actually 15

Possibly lol.  It's much easier to do in the late night hours when few people are around lol.  During the day when everyone is posting it would be like every third or fourth post lol.

[nycsnow]

Every model is consistently showing the potential for a wide spread damaging wind event with 50-70mph gust 

 

 

[wdrag]

So far, I'M probably going to be WRONG about my scenarios for possible snow to the coastal cities Thu-Fri (other than flurries-ice pellets).  00z/18 operational models just too warm. Interior I-84 corridor still might have some wintry advisory hazards Thu afternoon-eve and Friday afternoon.  Wind might be the greater concern (short period of 45-60 MPH gusts). Still looks like the coldest well mixed airmass of the season to the coast by Saturday morning lasting into the 26th.  I see nighttime wind chill modeled to near zero in the coastal cities and subzero I84 corridor???

So a decent early winter storm.

All the 00z/18 ensembles (EPS and CMC-GEPS have increased considerably) have a little more snow than I expect I84 corridor... and only advisory potential.  

While there can be changes near the snowfall gradient boundary,  I think I'm now convinced that the coastal cities won't see much more than flurries or ice pellets. 

[Rtd208]

48 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

12 posts in a row.  Is that a record?

He obviously doesn't know how to use the multi quote feature.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow that actually could have been an analog for this season since it was a third year la nina too.  We still have time before the end of the month to make it happen ;-)

 

We are on track for one of the least snowiest Decembers with such a -AO.  What makes this one really unusual is that we are getting a +1 PNA this week with the storm. In 2012 we didn’t get the +PNA spike like this year with the -4 AO. So that one was more understandable. 
 

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

[snywx]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Possibly lol.  It's much easier to do in the late night hours when few people are around lol.  During the day when everyone is posting it would be like every third or fourth post lol.

Use the multi quote please!!

[bluewave]

Looks like our regular warm up a few days before Christmas ahead of the cutter. Then a cool down behind it for several days. Followed by our next warm up near the end of the month as the EPO goes positive. 
 

 

[EasternLI]

Really difficult to get a read on the extended right now IMO. When you have a mean that looks like this. However within that mean, the #1 cluster from the cluster analysis is a different idea than the mean would lead you to believe. It's really going to depend upon how upcoming wave breaks play out. Tricky timeframe. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

12 posts in a row.  Is that a record?

no...the record is held by someone in the MLB thread responding to my posts about the north rays...

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like our regular warm up a few days before Christmas ahead of the cutter. Then a cool down behind it for several days. Followed by our next warm up near the end of the month as the EPO goes positive. 
 

 

Don't worry JB will have the Little Ice Age following the nationwide warmth...keep the faith..

[Juliancolton]

I won't be satisfied until we completely eliminate blue thickness lines from this domain. 

[Allsnow]

Close the shades tight…another terrible December. 

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for one of the least snowiest Decembers with such a -AO.  What makes this one really unusual is that we are getting a +1 PNA this week with the storm. In 2012 we didn’t get the +PNA spike like this year with the -4 AO. So that one was more understandable. 
 

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

Maybe we favor indices too much and not enough timing-track?   I'm real glad we're not focusing on MJO in Dec.  Long ways to go before we really know what is best fit for each storm scenario. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe we favor indices too much and not enough timing-track?   I'm real glad we're not focusing on MJO in Dec.  Long ways to go before we really know what is best fit for each storm scenario. 

These indices used to be more reliable before the big ridge and warm pool developed to our east following the super El Niño in 14-15. So we need to be more cautious using older analogs in our new climate. That ridge probably needs it’s own separate index.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe we favor indices too much and not enough timing-track?   I'm real glad we're not focusing on MJO in Dec.  Long ways to go before we really know what is best fit for each storm scenario. 

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. 

We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average.

I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one. 

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Close the shades tight…another terrible December. 

Even with a favorable pattern 

December isn't a winter month anymore

[WestBabylonWeather]

Holy crap Liberty bell

 

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Waters a few degrees warmer won’t help areas south of the coastal front like in this storm. Nor does it determine nuances like ridges folding over AK and causing a s/w trough to dip into the Gulf Of Alaska from the east.  Maybe borderline areas near 32 in this storm it may matter, but that’s not the problem in this pattern.

Another great post by coastalwx.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cool.  High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 40°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 42°

The dry weather will continue through Wednesday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 45.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.3°; 15-Year: 46.2°

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. 

We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average.

I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one. 

 

100% agreed with your point about the misplaced pna ridge. It was never really in a good position to begin with.