December 2022

[MJO812]

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lol wtf?

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Lol wtf?

That's what I'm saying 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How lol

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

How lol

1st low most likely 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That's what I'm saying 

Pivotal shows no snow thru the 24th

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Pivotal shows no snow thru the 24th

Probably a mix

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Probably a mix

Must be a mistake unless there is a storm between hour 144 and 168? Pivotal showing no accumulation in the same region. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Must be a mistake unless there is a storm between hour 144 and 168? Pivotal showing no accumulation in the same region. 

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

No snow anywhere near us

 

[nycsnow]

Cmc brings winds of 60-70 to the area as well

[TugHillMatt]

28 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Buffalo's totals this month are going to be insane. 

While here in Syracuse we are at 50% of normal snowfall for where we should be right now. Rochester still hasn't had the ground covered.

[NorthShoreWx]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

15" in South Amboy and nothing in Metuchin. What's so strange about that?

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

While here in Syracuse we are at 50% of normal snowfall for where we should be right now. Rochester still hasn't had the ground covered.

That's crazy. I would have expected Rochester to get something at least. 

[Winterweatherlover]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No snow anywhere near us

 

I can’t totally read the Ukie map but based on the 0 line verbatim looks like snow for NJ at hour 144 so maybe that’s where it’s coming from? 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

I can’t totally read the Ukie map but based on the 0 line verbatim looks like snow for NJ at hour 144 so maybe that’s where it’s coming from? 

Yeah it would have to be some Christmas eve storm but that map still makes no sense

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That's crazy. I would have expected Rochester to get something at least. 

They have random years where they severely under perform relative to Syracuse and Buffalo since they don’t get lake effect that easily and synoptic storms can miss them to the east 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah it would have to be some Christmas eve storm but that map still makes no sense

It does

The models are showing precip just as the cold rushes in.

[TugHillMatt]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That's crazy. I would have expected Rochester to get something at least. 

They've just had some dustings that melt quickly. There's been virtually no North wind or cold air off of Lake Ontario to fire up the lake effect. It's been all SW and W events thus far. That's one of the reasons Syracuse is so far behind as well. Plus, with no cold air, the synoptic systems have been rain or slush.

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

They have random years where they severely under perform relative to Syracuse and Buffalo since they don’t get lake effect that easily and synoptic storms can miss them to the east 

Syracuse has seriously underperformed the past 3 winters. This could be our 4th consecutive winter of below (substantially) the 100 inch mark. That's never happened before since record-keeping started.

[Winterweatherlover]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It does

The models are showing precip just as the cold rushes in.

And then it just stops when it hits NYC and points NE? 

[MJO812]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

And then it just stops when it hits NYC and points NE? 

No

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

No

It did stop abruptly on the snowfall map you posted, probably because of rendering problems with the graphic.  The only time I can recall something that looks like the quoted map in this post was late February 2010.  The low west of the Catskills must be stacked and occluding, but that's still a whacky deform under the circumstances.  Model roller coaster seems likely to continue.

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We are going through the usual cycles of model swings the only problem being for snowlovers along I-95 the big cities and coastal locations that the swings are too far west. The most easterly swing (about 4 days ago) was by two out of the three models a coast hugger and the most westerly swing took the primary to just about Green Bay Wisconsin (GGEM several runs ago). So it does not really appear that there's much of a chance at this point for an all-out snowstorm here but we can keep just a slight bit of hope for some snow or sleet on the front or back end particularly away from the coast. Central and northern New England along with parts of Pennsylvania and central/western NY State have a better shot at snow.  But tonight the models have come east again. I do not know how far but it is my guess that they're not going to shift east beyond the easternmost track of several days back and that they may eventually shift to the left a bit once again. For most of us in my opinion this is mostly a rain event.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe the record was 8 days on the EPS with Hurricane Sandy.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2013/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy.pdf

 

In this report, we have discussed the predictability for the landfall of hurricane Sandy, affecting the New York City area on October 30th 2012. The cyclone made an unusual turn toward the west before making landfall. The westward movement and rapid deepening from the 29th was most likely due to an interaction with a trough over the U.S. Therefore both the prediction of the tropical cyclone and the U.S trough were of importance. The results show that ECMWF operational forecasts 8 days before landfall gave a strong and accurate indication of what was to happen. From 7 days before the landfall the high-resolution forecasts were consistent in its prediction of the landfall. The results from the ensemble forecasts allowed a significant degree of confidence to be attached to these forecasts but also showed signs of a too slow movement of the cyclone, which led to a timing error of the landfall.
The TIGGE archive has been used to compare predictions from different forecasting centres. The results shows that the ensembles from NCEP and UKMO started to pick up the risk for a deep cyclone making landfall 7 days (+168h) before the landfall and the ECMWF ensemble one day earlier (+8 days). Com- paring the performance between the centres, ECMWF had the highest probability for the cyclone landfall for most initial forecast times in the medium range. We also found that UKMO seemed to under-predict the depth of the cyclone compared ECMWF and NCEP and that the CMC ensemble had a large spread among the members. To evaluate whether the ensemble spread is reliable, the ensemble spread of trop- ical cyclone tracks needs to be evaluated over many cases. Comparisons between different forecasting centres for tropical cyclones can be found in e.g. Hamill et al. (2011); Yamaguchi et al. (2012).

I like that our most historic storms are the ones we anticipate well in advance.  I made a small list of the truly great ones (of any type) and wanted to research how far in advance they were predicted with reasonable accuracy.

Here's my list in chronological order:

1 February 1978

2. April 1982

3. February 1983

4. Hurricane Gloria September 1985

5.  Hurricane Bob August 1991

6. March 1993

7. January 1996

8. PD2 February 2003

9. December 2003 (including this for how early in the season it was for a foot plus blizzard)

10. February 2006 (only including this because of the huge totals in the city)

11. February 2010 (20 inches at NYC)

12. Boxing Day December 2010

13. January 2011 (19 inches at NYC)

14. Hurricane Sandy

15. January 2016

 

That's what I have so far in my list.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It did stop abruptly on the snowfall map you posted, probably because of rendering problems with the graphic.  The only time I can recall something that looks like the quoted map in this post was late February 2010.  The low west of the Catskills must be stacked and occluding, but that's still a whacky deform under the circumstances.  Model roller coaster seems likely to continue.

 

We had a raging blizzard on southerly winds in that storm lol

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

They've just had some dustings that melt quickly. There's been virtually no North wind or cold air off of Lake Ontario to fire up the lake effect. It's been all SW and W events thus far. That's one of the reasons Syracuse is so far behind as well. Plus, with no cold air, the synoptic systems have been rain or slush.

Syracuse has seriously underperformed the past 3 winters. This could be our 4th consecutive winter of below (substantially) the 100 inch mark. That's never happened before since record-keeping started.

Looks like we're all been suffering from that southwesterly flow, which means the area between Erie and Buffalo does well but no one else.

Same reason temperature departures are so high (both in the summer and the winter) even for areas far north of here (and SST too).

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Unfortunately many have to get burned enough times to finally learn. That was me when I was younger lol.

For me it's the strong feeling that we've experienced the most extreme weather we are ever likely to experience in our lifetimes already, so anything we get from now on is just icing on the cake.  Back in the 80s I would throw a fit if a storm busted, but after all we've seen in the past 20 years, it's all fine by me lol.  No snow season will top 95-96 and no snowstorm will top January 2016 and we (hopefully) won't get anything like Hurricane Sandy ever again and the raging extreme heat we had in 2010 and 2011 will likely never again be experienced by us in our lifetimes either.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Not to dredge up old trauma, but the mix line was super close...right over LI for the first part of that storm.  We barely had any rain here at all, less than  0.2" of rain/sleet out of about 3.87" LE for the storm.  We had a mix, then some light rain for a short period late morning then slowly accumulating light snow for a few hours before it went nuke late afternoon.  There was also a short period of sleet mix a little after dark, but not much.  South and southwest areas of the island did get a bit screwed, especially since it was such a close call.

wow 3.87 is a huge amount of precip....around here I don't believe we even got 2.00 total LE lol.  That's even more than my GOAT storm which was January 2016 which was 3.00 LE here (all snow of course.)

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

12-28-68 would probably be the closest -4 -AO match. But the PNA was negative with a deep Western Trough instead of ridge. So this could be the deepest cutter following a -4 AO and +1 PNA combo.

 

Too bad we cant use that season as an analog since it was a weak el nino-- February 1969 was a fun month by all accounts!

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

All the major models, except for the GFS, use the 4D-Var initialization scheme. NCEP decided to use something different rather than what remains the best-in-class approach. The growing gap in skill scores with two successive upgrades having slightly reduced scores over the versions they replaced are glaring red flags. Unfortunately, sunk cost fallacy seems to prevail and an inferior scheme is being retained.

We spend billions putting up GOES satellites, why can't we spend some money on 4D Var?