donsutherland1 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Tomorrow will be another cool but dry day. A powerful storm could bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region late next week. A light snow accumulation remains possible at the onset of the storm and as it moves away from the region. Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures could tumble into the teens in New York City. The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +21.23 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.548 today. On December 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.606 (RMM). The December 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.655 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 I'm still tracking this Maybe we can get lucky with an anafront. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking this Maybe we can get lucky with an anafront. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Tired of fixing the Christmas stuff my house faces south and the 3 wreaths are hurting from the sun exposure and some of the warm days...shedding needles everywhere-might dump one of them on 12/26 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking this Maybe we can get lucky with an anafront. 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm still tracking this Maybe we can get lucky with an anafront. Gotta applaud your enthusiasm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gotta applaud your enthusiasm Nothing else to track man Pretty boring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 4 1 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nothing else to track man Pretty boring We still have two solid months of winter, and who knows what March can bring. I think the expectations for December are always too high. It just isn't an ideal month for snow like it used to be. So far I have about 3 inches for the month, all of which has been washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Not going to post the graphics and may be meaningless??? but the 18z EC is 2C colder at 850MB IN NC at 90hrs than the prior 12z at 96 hrs. More cold air aloft to get rid of. I'd love to extrapolate but this can be a rabbit hole and useless. I do like that 12-18z EC trend, especially since it's 12z was implying a decent amount 850 MB se flow WAA Thursday. I won't see new model guidance til 6A..hopefully sleeping in. I 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Hi! I just saw the D10 comparison. Both 240's look similar to me... all you have to do is raise height a little on the GEFS to show the positive anomaly but 500 pattern looks similar to me. Regarding the upcoming: I am hoping my scenario below works out. Thinking we are going to see two upper lows come Friday the 23rd...one Great Lakes and one crossing PA/NJ before they merge north of us in Canada on the 24th. Some of the modeling may be putting too much stock on the lead short wave developing the midwest low. Expecting just like this last one... an upper low developing on the eastern flank of the 500 trough. Added this mornings analysis as an example of evolution except this one further south by 1-3 degxrees latitude. Suspect, the upcoming system is going to dig more than that of the 15th-16th. That doesn't mean Long Island will see much if any snow but it does allow for further east wintry weather just inland. I will be looking for future 12/18-19 cycles of the EPS and GEPS to start losing the intensity of the upper low attempting to bodily develop in the Ohio Valley--instead permit an eastward extension. IF all the marbles have been properly placed on big UA low in the Upper Ohio Valley Great Lakes, then I'll have to admit being wrong. All I know is we're still 5-6 days away and something will probably change in the lat-lon of the developing upper lows. I'll check back tomorrow. Raw verification for the elevation based wet snow of 12/16-17 is in the 12/16-17 thread. added the 12z/17 analysis at 658P that helped support secondary development By the way, I want to make sure to compliment you on this writeup. This was very easy for the feeble-minded such as myself to understand, while still being thorough. Whether or not it tells me a forecast I do or don’t prefer, how we get there was still laid out logically. Thank you!. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Interesting stats. Courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue. I remember December 1989 vividly. Also remember what followed for the rest of the winter. Ugh. December 23, 1989 had heavy snows coastal SC/NC followed by bitter cold. Was an amazing Arctic discharge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Gfs might pull us back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, MANDA said: Interesting stats. Courtesy Dr. Ryan Maue. I remember December 1989 vividly. Also remember what followed for the rest of the winter. Ugh. December 23, 1989 had heavy snows coastal SC/NC followed by bitter cold. Was an amazing Arctic discharge. The one thing I forgot about that winter until looking it up a few years ago was that there was a single digit low reading on February 26, 1990 in the Park. Of all the winters since, there has been only one other winter with a later single digit low in the Park: February 28, 2014. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs might pull us back Not really seeing any major changes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Not really seeing any major changes yet. S/W & PNA are night and day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Not really seeing any major changes yet. Nope still a cutter but slightly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, USCG RS said: S/W & PNA are night and day. Stronger vort 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nope still a cutter but slightly east It came a little east but still not close for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: It came a little east but still not close for our region. You have to look at the H5 evolution rather than the Surface. At H5, there is a very large difference. If these changes continue, the Surface will look much different. Time will tell, but there are huge differences this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ok I'l give it was about a noticeable east shift but we still need about another 500 miles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Gfs and icon both have winds 60+ for part of the area. Winds are gonna be the big story if it holds 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 CMC very improved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: CMC very improved Looks better than the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: CMC very improved Yeah it's better but still has a lot of work to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it's better but still has a lot of work to do. At this point I think the odds of an I95 snowstorm are pretty low but just hoping for front end or back end snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Ukie well east Congrats buffalo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Ukie well east Congrats buffalo From congrats Chicago to congrats Buffalo is some progress. Probably won't matter for us but we continue to track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Buffalo's totals this month are going to be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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