George001 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 52 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible. It starts as rain yes, but the Midwest low looks like it’s starting to transfer offshore and absorb the smaller retrograding low to make one massive low. Looking at the H5 I would think the low would strengthen enough to create its own cold air, leading to the rain snow line crashing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Yes, I realize it's an OP run out at day 10. But it's another instance of the ssw precursor pattern look. Not terribly dissimilar from when I posted it from the GEFS the other day. IF we happen to transit through a look similar to this. You would look for that potential 15-30 days later. That's the lag time for this pattern. It's just another halfway decent example for now. Pretty cool to see it again though. Figured I'd mention it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly sunny, blustery, and cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 44° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 44° Tomorrow will be fair and continued cool. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.0° Newark: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.9° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 32 here this AM. High of 57F yesterday before FROPA late yesterday afternoon. Had a wind gust of 48mph during the height of yesterday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 8 hours ago, psv88 said: Finally caved a bought a snowblower. Will be here next week. Let it snow the jinx is in now, thanks. 2 6 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 got down to 29, felt like 23! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: got down to 29, felt like 23! I hate wind. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 November ended at 50.9[+2.9], 10th. Place. The first 8 days of December are averaging 42degs.(36/49) or +2. Not much going on here during the next 15 days. If any falls, the period is 12/08-12 Reached 58 here yesterday. Today: 42-45, wind w. to nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM. 36*(54%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 9pm 40* at Noon. 42* at 2pm. Reached 43* at 3:30pm. 41* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 An EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern is forecast to develop. The transition to sustained cold could occur during the second week of December. Afterward, as mid-month approaches, the PNA is forecast to rise toward neutral levels. The rise in the PNA could coincide with an increase in potential snowfalls. Below is the PNA forecast and statistics for the percentage of days with measurable snowfall and 1" or more snowfall under EPO-/AO-/PNA-, EPO-/AO-/PNA+ and all other patterns for December (1950-2021). 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 hours ago, psv88 said: Finally caved a bought a snowblower. Will be here next week. Let it snow 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Quote Finally caved a bought a snowblower. Will be here next week. Well, there goes the Winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Too many cutters with upper 50s in a row. Dont like it. Looks like another two on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Too many cutters with upper 50s in a row. Dont like it. Looks like another two on tap That was always in the cards 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, stu said: Well, there goes the Winter. and the blocking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Too many cutters with upper 50s in a row. Dont like it. Looks like another two on tap GFS has a cutter on the 12th and then warms it up after that going into mid December. Probably wrong but you never know. Long range is very difficult to predict. So often we look 2 weeks down the road and see a potential pattern, but it ends up being much different when it gets closer. That's why I don't get too excited when good patterns are advertised. Good pattens don't always produce too. Our area averages less than 30 inches of snow per winter for a reason. I'll get excited when we have a legitimate winter storm threat at the day 5 range. At least it looks likely that we have cold air coming in one week from today, and there should be a good amount of cold air available in December. That will at least give us a decent chance of scoring sometime this month, but it's far from a guarantee. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. yeah I don't get the play by play on day 7 or even day 10 OP model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 The gfs looks nothing like the eps. Relax lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Okay now my hype is starting to retrograde… Quick someone post another 50” weenie map, even if it’s hand drawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe. That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. Why is it nonsense? Pretty common in a Nina. We are always fighting the SER and a general trof on the West coast. Especially given the GEFS is trending rhat direction, it isnt out of the question and is a possibility. Eta: not saying it's correct. Just saying it could go this way. Have to wait and watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 2 hours ago, Rjay said: The gfs looks nothing like the eps. Relax lol. 12z eps still looking good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 beautiful 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: beautiful Alot of bombing ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. Definitely a can kick today on all the guidance with regards to the pac. Hopefully this pattern doesn’t stay in the 11-15 day all month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Definitely a can kick today on all the guidance with regards to the pac. Hopefully this pattern doesn’t stay in the 11-15 day all month There is more than the pac. I have no clue how people can say the pattern doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 GEFS and EPS look great IMO. GEFS a little later but not denied. I feel like this happens in all blocks where we have to wait a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. Ring of blue on the geps? Is that even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 4 hours ago, stu said: Well, there goes the Winter. I got us covered, Stu. Sold my snowmobiles this morning and got rid of my Vermont camp last year. It's as iron clad signal for a cold and snowy winter as it gets. Back in '94 my uncle bought a grizzly sized tracked snowblower on account of the Blizzard of '93. Halfway through the winter of '94 he complained it didn't snow and paid all this money for it. I told him that was the best Gottdamn snowblower he ever could have imagined. Cleared his driveway and everyone else's for hundreds of miles around!!! He got 25 inches shortly after that in Feb though. Changed his tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GEFS and EPS look great IMO. GEFS a little later but not denied. I feel like this happens in all blocks where we have to wait a bit Snowstorm near Christmas would be nice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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