December 2022

[CIK62]

50+ might creep in here on NYD and give the CI Polar Bears an easy go of it.         70+ is just as likely as our 50+ by the time you get down to the Cape Hatteras area.   Not shown.

  

Worse than that I am afraid.      The  Rossby Wave output, for what it is worth, has never shown the Christmas freeze and now I see it does not even have the BN back to coast in a meaningful way anymore in January.        Don't be surprised if Christmas cold goes bye bye.

 

[EastonSN+]

Didn't almost the exact same thing happen December 2012?

Neg NAO and all but like this year we had 1 minor event and we had the SAME nose of warmth to the east that connected with the NAO. 

I know someone posted the December 2012 H5 plot before however cannot find.

I don't think this is a new era where a December Neg NAO will never work again. It just failed like 2012.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, CIK62 said:

50+ might creep in here on NYD and give the CI Polar Bears an easy go of it.         70+ is just as likely as our 50+ by the time you get down to the Cape Hatteras area.   Not shown.

  

 

If the pattern relaxation is as brief as the ensembles currently show and the vortex moves back quickly to the Aleutians by D15-16 I am not sold we are going to torch nearly as much as currently shown 12/28-12/31, its not easy to just immediately even with the Pac flooding Canada to go that mild with a mean trof in the east, we'd need more of an Op GFS idea and not the GEPD/GEFS/EPS idea of late December 01 with the E trof but the AK vortex ruining it, usually it takes time for that to flood the pattern and it may have only a few days 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Didn't almost the exact same thing happen December 2012?

Neg NAO and all but like this year we had 1 minor event and we had the SAME nose of warmth to the east that connected with the NAO. 

I know someone posted the December 2012 H5 plot before however cannot find.

I don't think this is a new era where a December Neg NAO will never work again. It just failed like 2012.

The pattern was lousier most of that month and we had a SER most of the time.  I think maybe 12/20-12/25 we briefly went semi trof in the east and a big snow event hit TN/AR/OK but otherwise the SER was dominant

[lee59]

As has been for a while now, the coldest of the cold continues to be to our South and West.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern was lousier most of that month and we had a SER most of the time.  I think maybe 12/20-12/25 we briefly went semi trof in the east and a big snow event hit TN/AR/OK but otherwise the SER was dominant

Thanks. I am dying to see the H5 plot for that month.

I do believe in global warming due to human and natural causes, however I have a hard time believing a -4 NAO will never work again I'm December. Rather, the failure was due to small nuances that did not line up. I would take my chances with a Neg NAO in December every chance I get!

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. I am dying to see the H5 plot for that month.

I do believe in global warming due to human and natural causes, however I have a hard time believing a -4 NAO will never work again I'm December. Rather, the failure was due to small nuances that did not line up. I would take my chances with a Neg NAO in December every chance I get!

I think in a +PNA pattern it works for sure, but with this -PNA now unless we get a good cold AMO the next 20 years we will have an issue

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Didn't almost the exact same thing happen December 2012?

Neg NAO and all but like this year we had 1 minor event and we had the SAME nose of warmth to the east that connected with the NAO. 

I know someone posted the December 2012 H5 plot before however cannot find.

I don't think this is a new era where a December Neg NAO will never work again. It just failed like 2012.

We had a 10 inch event at NYC December 2020 and all we had was a artic high 

[the_other_guy]

maybe it’s time to stop talking about temperatures and models two weeks out like it’s fucking gospel?

 

Just a thought.

we haven’t even gotten the 23rd straight yet and now we are already talking about a warm up on New Year’s Day.

 

Learn from mistakes instead of repeating them over and over again

 

[North and West]

maybe it’s time to stop talking about temperatures and models two weeks out like it’s fucking gospel?
 
Just a thought.
we haven’t even gotten the 23rd straight yet and now we are already talking about a warm up on New Year’s Day.
 
Learn from mistakes instead of repeating them over and over again
 

.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah. This was some shit luck with nuances for sure. The only thing you could argue was last Sunday, but that was for a relatively small area geographically. 
 

I will say within about 10 days Scooter caution flags did start to show up. Sure I suppose you could argue they always do, but when those ridges fold over AK like a floppy boob and push troughing into the Gulf of Alaska from the east, never a good sign. 

Great post from CoastalWX!

 

[EastonSN+]

22 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

maybe it’s time to stop talking about temperatures and models two weeks out like it’s fucking gospel?

 

Just a thought.

we haven’t even gotten the 23rd straight yet and now we are already talking about a warm up on New Year’s Day.

 

Learn from mistakes instead of repeating them over and over again

 

Seriously. Just yesterday they showed a great pattern and in a couple runs they totally flipped for the LR. They can just as easily flip again. So anyone taking a NYE torch as gospel just needs to look at the runs the past two days!

[HeadInTheClouds]

Why is it so damn hard to get a white Christmas in this area, especially in the HV? It's been a long time. 

[WarrenCtyWx]

45 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

We had a 10 inch event at NYC December 2020 and all we had was a artic high 

We also had a decent stretch in December 2013 mid month. I'm not sure what the pattern was though. Does anyone know?

[Uniblab]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seriously. Just yesterday they showed a great pattern and in a couple runs they totally flipped for the LR. They can just as easily flip again. So anyone taking a NYE torch as gospel just needs to look at the runs the past two days!

More often than not when a torch is forcast, as sure as the sun rises it'll happen. 

[mannynyc]

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

What you just described did actually happen in the area on 2/2/76.  SLP bombed out on an arctic front just east of ACY that morning.  There are few here that are old enough to remember that one however it was quite spectacular while it lasted.  The pressure at my location on the north shore fell to 966 mb with heavy rain going to freezing rain, sleet, and ultimately blizzard conditions for a time with continuous lightning and thunder.  

I remember waking up to that.  It was the first snow day in my school district since 1969.  I have some old Central Park ob's...peak wind gust was 59 mph and temp dropped from about 35 at 5am to 11 at 9am.  Temp didn't budge from the low teens the rest of the day.

 

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature topped out in the lower 40s today.
 

[TriPol]

Curious: What was the pattern in December 2015, which lead to the January 2016 snowstorm?

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Curious: What was the pattern in December 2015, which lead to the January 2016 snowstorm?

Monster SE ridge...it made no sense...typically a super Nino has a huge GOA low and big western ridge with the trof in the east with no cold air.  If I remember right speculation was a strong MJO wave interfered causing the odd pattern

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Why is it so damn hard to get a white Christmas in this area, especially in the HV? It's been a long time. 

The 5 days leading up to Christmas have become the least snowy of the whole month since 2011.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 5	Missing Count
2021-12-05	0.0	0
2020-12-05	T	0
2019-12-05	1.6	0
2018-12-05	0.0	0
2017-12-05	0.0	0
2016-12-05	0.0	0
2015-12-05	0.0	0
2014-12-05	0.0	0
2013-12-05	0.0	0
2012-12-05	0.0	0
2011-12-05	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 6 to Dec 10	Missing Count
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	T	0
2019-12-10	0.0	0
2018-12-10	0.0	0
2017-12-10	4.6	0
2016-12-10	0.0	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	1.0	0
2013-12-10	2.1	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 11 to Dec 15	Missing Count
2021-12-15	0.0	0
2020-12-15	T	0
2019-12-15	0.2	0
2018-12-15	T	0
2017-12-15	2.4	0
2016-12-15	0.4	0
2015-12-15	0.0	0
2014-12-15	T	0
2013-12-15	5.0	0
2012-12-15	0.0	0
2011-12-15	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 16 to Dec 20	Missing Count
1	2021-12-20	0.0	0
2	2020-12-20	10.5	0
3	2019-12-20	0.7	0
4	2018-12-20	T	0
5	2017-12-20	0.0	0
6	2016-12-20	2.8	0
7	2015-12-20	0.0	0
-	2014-12-20	0.0	0
9	2013-12-20	1.5	0
10	2012-12-20	0.0	0
-	2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2021-12-25	0.2	0
2020-12-25	0.0	0
2019-12-25	0.0	0
2018-12-25	T	0
2017-12-25	T	0
2016-12-25	0.0	0
2015-12-25	0.0	0
2014-12-25	T	0
2013-12-25	T	0
2012-12-25	T	0
2011-12-25	0.0	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 26 to Dec 31	Missing Count
2021-12-31	T	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	T	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.7	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	0.0	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	0.4	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

 

[Tatamy]

34 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember waking up to that.  It was the first snow day in my school district since 1969.  I have some old Central Park ob's...peak wind gust was 59 mph and temp dropped from about 35 at 5am to 11 at 9am.  Temp didn't budge from the low teens the rest of the day.

 

That was the one.  It was close to 60 at midnight where I was before the transition.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I had not payed much attention to the lack of the 50/50.  I was noticing more the ridge was too far west a few days ago....we have seen some big ones with the ridge further west but usually there are one of 3 other factors in place...the 50/50, the PV is really large and extends back west into MB/W Ontario, or the pattern is breaking down and progressing so while the ridge may have been off the W Coast when the development began in the Rockies/Plains, its quickly moving east.  I think the 96 and 03 Blizzards occurred that way, ridge was pretty far west but pattern was about to snap and the Pac was gonna bust everything open soon after both events 

Just goes to show how much better the EPS is than the GEFS near the end of it’s effective day 10 range. At least the EPS had the hint of the ridge building east of New England. But the GEFS had the classic 50/50 low in the same spot. The day 8-15 forecasts almost always miss the ridge axis along 60W. This has been the model bias since the super El Niño in 15-16. 

New forecast

Old forecasts

[wdrag]

Well when I remotely read we were in trouble with snow, I am modestly encouraged coming home seeing both 12z EC and 18z/17 GFS both front and back end snow west of I95.  Think we need to give this more time before we call it quits on the coast.  Complex...

I am pretty sure we're going to need advisories I84 corridor for either the front or back end.  The front for your normal WAA transition snow. Thursday.  Plenty of time to get this to a front end thump????    Back end for sharply falling temps causing transitioning rain to snow to freeze... never really sure what flash freeze is... don't think that is defined clearly but if we get a 30-35 degree 6 hour temp drop with precip changing to snow and lasting into the time it drops below freezing... I'd say road management would be difficult, at least in the elevations.  It's not easy to attain this latter back end occurrence.  I'd say if we dig this trough a little further se of the current 00z/24 position,  it will get interesting for a a couple of hours on the back end---quite the 500MB vort max associated with the developing upper low. Could it cross NJ? 

And the wind driving it???  scattered gusts 45-55 MPH in NJ expected late Friday..cyclically consistently by the EC 00z/16 cycle-12z/17 cycle.

I'll check back tomorrow.  

[MANDA]

12 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember waking up to that.  It was the first snow day in my school district since 1969.  I have some old Central Park ob's...peak wind gust was 59 mph and temp dropped from about 35 at 5am to 11 at 9am.  Temp didn't budge from the low teens the rest of the day.

 

Tatamy and NorthShore.  I also remember that event so well.  I was 14 years old.  It was a Monday morning, and I went to bed Sunday night with temperatures in the m/u 50's.  Woke up early in the morning Monday to the sound of thunder and lightning.  Laid in bed a bit and then heard the wind howling, more flashes of lightning.  Did not hear any rainfall and thought that was odd.  Got up and looked out the window and there were blizzard conditions.  Checked my Taylor thermometer and it was 17 degrees.  Blizzard conditions raged for about 2 hours.  Only about 2" snow but wind howled for hours, and temperatures held in the teens all day.  Lived near the Bayonne waterfront and went for a walk along the shore late morning.    Everything was encased in frozen spray and the bay was raging with whitecaps.  Great little event often forgotten.

[psv88]

So…how much for Philly?

[wdrag]

Hi!  I just saw the D10 comparison.  Both 240's look similar to me... all you have to do is raise height a little on the GEFS to show the positive anomaly but 500 pattern looks similar to me.  

Regarding the upcoming:  I am hoping my scenario below works out.

Thinking we are going to see two upper lows come Friday the 23rd...one Great Lakes and one crossing PA/NJ before they merge north of us in Canada on the 24th. Some of the modeling may be putting too much stock on the lead short wave developing the midwest low.   

Expecting just like this last one... an upper low developing on the eastern flank of the 500 trough.  Added this mornings analysis as an example of evolution except this one further south by 1-3 degxrees latitude.  Suspect, the upcoming system is going to dig more than that of the 15th-16th. That doesn't mean Long Island will see much if any snow but it does allow for further east wintry weather just inland.  

I will be looking for future 12/18-19 cycles of the EPS and GEPS to start losing the intensity of the upper low attempting to bodily develop in the Ohio Valley--instead permit an eastward extension.  

IF all the marbles have been properly placed on big UA low in the Upper Ohio Valley Great Lakes, then I'll have to admit being wrong.  All I know is we're still 5-6 days away and something will probably change in the lat-lon of the developing upper lows. 

I'll check back tomorrow.

Raw verification for the elevation based wet snow of 12/16-17 is in the 12/16-17 thread.

added the 12z/17 analysis at 658P that helped support secondary development 

[nycsnow]

Gonna be some impressive winds at the end of this week

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Gonna be some impressive winds at the end of this week

Tired of fixing the Christmas stuff 

[Parsley]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So…how much for Philly?

Ha! 

Happy holidays buddy! Hope you and the fam. are doing well. Lots of mud and puddles down this way, like most Decembers.