LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, eduggs said: If we're in a "pattern" - which I argue we are not - then it's a terrible pattern for coastal plain snow. True, this is why broadbrushing something as good as bad for snow doesn't really help us figure out what went wrong. December 1989 was a horrible pattern for coastal snow too even though the average monthly temperature was 25.5. It's about so much more than cold and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: This is another example of the CMC being a much better model than GFS. I think it even picked up on next week's storm being a cutter before the Euro. The CMC has done pretty well with winter storm threats the last couple years. It's a pretty good model. Even worse than next week's storm not working out is the pattern really breaking down in late December. It looks like a big warmup going into New Year's weekend. The great pattern that we were supposed to have is likely going to be a big bust. I wonder if the comparison to December 1989 is being followed a little too closely lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There are solid statistical relationships from the past when certain combinations of teleconnections were met and storm outcomes that accompanied them or lagged by weeks or even months. But the limit of these in the forecast range is about 8-10 days before we lose the useful skill. New features like the record warm pool to our east that didn’t exist when these relationships worked out have changed the equation. So marine heatwaves are altering ENSO, MJO, and teleconnection expectations in a warming climate. A -4 SD -AO and +1 PNA would produced a much colder and potentially snowy scenario rather than such a deep low tracking to our west. We get a different wavelength response now from the older days when the same numerical index values were met. -4 SD AO is just a statistic; a number. It's a very crude way of characterizing the state of the pressure field/atmospheric circulation at a continental scale. Weather is a local phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Great job by the euro and cmc. They only showed the coast getting snow on 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 What an absolute disgrace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 If December ends up above normal temperature-wise, I'm hoping some of the long-term weeklies huggers and "pattern" obsessers start to appreciate the inherent uncertainty in long-term weather forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: If December ends up above normal temperature-wise, I'm hoping some of the long-term weeklies huggers and "pattern" obsessers start to appreciate the inherent uncertainty in long-term weather forecasting. Agree Long range forecasting shouldn't be happening. I know people do that for a living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z CMC continuing with the hurricane force gust theme as it has a severe low topped squall line embedded in a tightly packed gradient. Has highs near 60° on Friday around NYC rapidly dropping to 10-15° Saturday morning. So it will be interesting to see what the Euro comes up with next. wow is that 90 mph winds on the CMC Friday afternoon across eastern LI? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: If December ends up above normal temperature-wise, I'm hoping some of the long-term weeklies huggers and "pattern" obsessers start to appreciate the inherent uncertainty in long-term weather forecasting. I don't think anyone cares about temperatures-- sensibly, it's about snowfall. I've always said that temperatures don't really matter when it comes to snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: I don't think anyone cares about temperatures-- sensibly, it's about snowfall. I've always said that temperatures don't really matter when it comes to snowfall. This also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, eduggs said: -4 SD AO is just a statistic; a number. It's a very crude way of characterizing the state of the pressure field/atmospheric circulation at a continental scale. Weather is a local phenomenon. So using that statistic, how many 970s mb or lower Great Lakes cutters have we had a few days after a -4 AO and +1 PNA in December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: 12z CMC continuing with the hurricane force gust theme as it has a severe low topped squall line embedded in a tightly packed gradient. Has highs near 60° on Friday around NYC rapidly dropping to 10-15° Saturday morning. So it will be interesting to see what the Euro comes up with next. Just give the severe weather then. Hurricane gusts and massive temp drops. I'll take interesting over boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This also Having been through some truly hellish winter months with endless cold and no snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, eduggs said: -4 SD AO is just a statistic; a number. It's a very crude way of characterizing the state of the pressure field/atmospheric circulation at a continental scale. Weather is a local phenomenon. I mean you have to agree that there is a cause and effect connection between different global events and conditions that influences the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't think anyone cares about temperatures-- sensibly, it's about snowfall. I've always said that temperatures don't really matter when it comes to snowfall. Yes and no... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Dark Star said: Yes and no... Well during the event it matters but I meant the smoothed out average temps for the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I don't think anyone cares about temperatures-- sensibly, it's about snowfall. I've always said that temperatures don't really matter when it comes to snowfall. It's frustrating but we obviously have way long to go. Feb 2021 was a purely awesome winter month despite Jan being horrendous and walking into Feb 1st with only the 8" I got before rain on 12/16/20, then 30" in 15 days and the snow lasting. Hopefully we can get some blocking to come back later in the winter and we can time that with a cooperating Pacific. One thing this new climo is good for is making something work in a big way when we can get the pieces together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 56 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's usually better than December due to colder ssts and different wavelengths. We can get away with a bad pacific in March Snow melts so fast in March. And outside the hills, we're always battling marginal temps. You need intense snowfall rates in March. For me, Dec - Feb are the snow months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Well during the event it matters but I meant the smoothed out average temps for the entire month. This Dec will probably be slightly below average temps. See how well that's working for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 March is the new December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree Long range forecasting shouldn't be happening. I know people do that for a living The issue isn’t long-range forecasting per se, but long-range forecasting outside the context of probability. Skill deteriorates at longer timeframes. One should not view such forecasts through the lens of deterministic outcomes. Doing so can only lead to unnecessary and avoidable disappointment on account of an implicit underlying assumption that an outcome is guaranteed. That’s why, critics notwithstanding, I believe CPC’s 6-10/8-14 day forecasts using a probabilistic scheme are the way to go. They convey useful information and they respect uncertainty. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: It's frustrating but we obviously have way long to go. Feb 2021 was a purely awesome winter month despite Jan being horrendous and walking into Feb 1st with only the 8" I got before rain on 12/16/20, then 30" in 15 days and the snow lasting. Hopefully we can get some blocking to come back later in the winter and we can time that with a cooperating Pacific. One thing this new climo is good for is making something work in a big way when we can get the pieces together. Yep it's almost like a chain reaction once things get rolling they (literally!) snowball lol. I'll always have good memories of 20-21 because of how awesome that February was. December wasn't bad either, I don't remember us getting so much rain that the snow melted away-- I think we just got a little light rain right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I mean you have to agree that there is a cause and effect connection between different global events and conditions that influences the final outcome. I don't agree. The climate indices are a snapshot representation of the atmosphere, not a driver of its state. The driver is global temperature gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: This Dec will probably be slightly below average temps. See how well that's working for us. So glad you weren't around for December 1989 you would have hated it. Imagine historic cold with a very small amount of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I would like to see a farther west track with the February event we had in 2013, although some of that could be down to random variations. We had rain for around 50% of that February 2013 storm and then around 10 inches of snow, which is still good but it feels not so good when people to your east get 30 inches. That was what I would consider an average winter. We also had the big storm in November, I would actually say that was my most memorable event that season. My prediction for this season is around 26-28 inches of snow so that would line up quite well with what we received in 12-13 (approximately-- it might have been a couple inches less than that that winter, I don't remember exactly lol) The Feb 8 2013 event wasn't ruined for many of us by the track, it was the primary low bringing in warm air that had to be dealt with by the bombing coastal, which SNE is far enough north to not worry about. Without that initial warm air NYC would've gotten over 20" easy. Parts of Westchester had over 20". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: I don't agree. The climate indices are a snapshot representation of the atmosphere, not a driver of its state. The driver is global temperature gradients. No not indices. I mean that events in one part of the world impact what happens in other parts of the world. On a wholistic level, not reducing everything to indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The issue isn’t long-range forecasting per se, but long-range forecasting outside the context of probability. Skill deteriorates at longer timeframes. One should not view such forecasts through the lens of deterministic outcomes. Doing so can only lead to unnecessary and avoidable disappointment on account of an implicit underlying assumption that an outcome is guaranteed. That’s why, critics notwithstanding, I believe CPC’s 6-10/8-14 day forecasts using a probabilistic scheme are the way to go. They convey useful information and they respect uncertainty. Well stated. As far as I know, CPC keeps things very general with broad brushed AN and BN for temp and precipitation. They avoid talking about specific patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The Feb 8 2013 event wasn't ruined for many of us by the track, it was the primary low bringing in warm air that had to be dealt with by the bombing coastal, which SNE is far enough north to not worry about. Without that initial warm air NYC would've gotten over 20" easy. Parts of Westchester had over 20". Did Suffolk County do so well because they have more of an SNE kind of climate? That storm and the middle storm in January 2011 would be proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: So glad you weren't around for December 1989 you would have hated it. Imagine historic cold with a very small amount of snow lol. I was a toddler then. My focus was throwing spaghetti on the walls lol. I remember 93-94 as a cold snowy winter but 95-96 really got me into weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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