December 2022

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are solid statistical relationships from the past when certain combinations of teleconnections were met and storm outcomes that accompanied them or lagged by weeks or even months. But the limit of these in the forecast range is about 8-10 days before we lose the useful skill. New features like the record warm pool to our east that didn’t exist when these relationships worked out have changed the equation. So marine heatwaves are altering ENSO, MJO, and teleconnection expectations in a warming climate. A -4 SD -AO and +1 PNA would produced a much colder and potentially snowy scenario rather than such a deep low tracking to our west. 

I know climate change is a big factor but how do we explain months like December 1989 which were very cold (much colder than this month) and also had either rainy or suppressed storms?

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Over

U told me I was crazy last night.  When gfs is alone its never good 

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

U told me I was crazy last night.  When gfs is alone its never good 

Yep we have to wait

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I grew up in Philly-we were on the northern edge of all the storms that month so we had a few inches on the ground  almost the entire time

Same on the south shore-- but that meant about half an inch to three quarters of inch of snow on the ground   Just thick enough to slip in lol.

There was one storm I clearly remember Nick Gregory had the 2 inch line right to the south shore and I was somewhat excited watching that fall at night (that was the other thing, all those fast moving little clippers fell at night and were gone by morning.)

 

[Juliancolton]

A sub-960mb low over the lakes would be pretty epic.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Juliancolton said:

A sub-960mb low over the lakes would be pretty epic.

This may be the OV bomb type storm to fix the pattern.

Is this a triple phaser?

 

[donsutherland1]

Expectations need to be anchored in probabilistic thinking. Otherwise, the expectations are unrealistic. Discussion of patterns e.g., with outcomes 40% above climatology do not mean that the outcomes are anything close to certain. Major or historic events are uncommon. Otherwise, they wouldn't be major, much less historic events.

The coefficients of determination among variables is modest. A lot of other variables explain outcomes. Some factors are not well-understood e.g., a lot of work remains to be done on ocean-atmosphere interactions for specific events. Some variables may not even be known. Simplifications are representations. There are limits imposed by realities of the coefficients of determination. Dynamic changes created by a growing greenhouse effect also add complexity.

Some events are inherently more complex than others. Phasing events are highly complex and difficult to forecast at medium-term or extended ranges. Occasionally, a model will have a good extended range outlook for a given event, but that's the exception not the rule. Forecasts related to the 1993 superstorm were an exception. Even with continuing advances in modeling, such outcomes cannot be replicated on anything approximating a consistent basis. Moreover, there is no "super model" that is decisively better than the others.

Finally, 7-10-day discussions are about possibilities and should be understood as such. Operational guidance at that range is relatively low but not zero skill. Ensembles provide insight into plausible scenarios. Inside 5 days, confidence in outcomes can increase, but considerable uncertainty still exists. One cannot "lock in" solutions at such time scales when it comes to details, even as confidence in general ideas rises.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Expectations need to be anchored in probabilistic thinking. Otherwise, the expectations are unrealistic. Discussion of patterns e.g., with outcomes 40% above climatology do not mean that the outcomes are anything close to certain. Major or historic events are uncommon. Otherwise, they wouldn't be major, much less historic events.

The coefficients of determination among variables is modest. A lot of other variables explain outcomes. Some factors are not well-understood e.g., a lot of work remains to be done on ocean-atmosphere interactions for specific events. Some variables may not even be known. Simplifications are representations. There are limits imposed by realities of the coefficients of determination.

Some events are inherently more complex than others. Phasing events are highly complex and difficult to forecast at medium-term or extended ranges. Occasionally, a model will have a good extended range outlook for a given event, but that's the exception not the rule. Forecasts related to the 1993 superstorm were an exception. Even with continuing advances in modeling, such outcomes cannot be replicated on anything approximating a consistent basis. Moreover, there is no "super model" that is decisively better than the others.

Finally, 7-10-day discussions are about possibilities and should be understood as such. Operational guidance at that range is relatively low but not zero skill. Ensembles provide insight into plausible scenarios. Inside 5 days, confidence in outcomes can increase, but considerable uncertainty still exists. One cannot "lock in" solutions at such time scales when it comes to details, even as confidence in general ideas rises.

True Don but there are always reasons why a certain outcome happens and this might be because of that intense warm pool offshore.  Going forward people should keep that in mind, that old teleconnections may no longer apply.

 

March 1993 really stood out but even moreso February 1978!  What an accomplishment forecasting that correctly was a week in advance especially after the big bust just 3 week prior.

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There are solid statistical relationships from the past when certain combinations of teleconnections were met and storm outcomes that accompanied them or lagged by weeks or even months. But the limit of these in the forecast range is about 8-10 days before we lose the useful skill. New features like the record warm pool to our east that didn’t exist when these relationships worked out have changed the equation. So marine heatwaves are altering ENSO, MJO, and teleconnection expectations in a warming climate. A -4 SD -AO and +1 PNA would produced a much colder and potentially snowy scenario rather than such a deep low tracking to our west. We get a different wavelength response now from the older days when the same numerical index values were met.

Makes you wonder if we'll ever be able to get snow with so many conditions against us

[romba]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Over

Yup, Canadian rains to North Pole.

 

GFS downgra…errr upgrade has really done wonders…

[Juliancolton]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This may be the OV bomb type storm to fix the pattern.

Is this a triple phaser?

 

I don't think there's enough involvement with the PV lobe to count as a third phasing vortmax.

[Rjay]

40 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs is slowly caving. Writing has been on the wall since yesterday.  This sucks man. This epic pattern we were supposedly getting is gonna yield 2 driving rain storms 

And sometimes that happens.   

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And sometimes that happens.   

Frustrating. Hopefully score something soon 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And sometimes that happens.   

One of these years it would be nice to see the universe balance itself out with a really bad pattern that is horrible in every respect delivering two historic snowstorms.

The universe owes us that ;-)

 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Frustrating. Hopefully score something soon 

It's still possible (not likely with this storm though).  It would have been nice to have a white Christmas. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

It's still possible (not likely with this storm though).  It would have been nice to have a white Christmas. 

Most definitely.  The gfs doesn't even have the wave on 27th. So I guess we wait 2 weeks longer. Always 10-15 days away 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Most definitely.  The gfs doesn't even have the wave on 27th. So I guess we wait 2 weeks longer. Always 10-15 days away 

Probably longer. Ensembles show a massive Alaskan vortex. If that happens the first half of January would be toastj

Just garbage all around. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's still possible (not likely with this storm though).  It would have been nice to have a white Christmas. 

We have had better luck within 5 days of St Patricks Day than Christmas recently.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 12 to Mar 22	Missing Count
2021-03-22	T	0
2020-03-22	0.0	0
2019-03-22	0.0	0
2018-03-22	25.0	0
2017-03-22	3.4	0
2016-03-22	2.3	0
2015-03-22	5.6	0
2014-03-22	T	0
2013-03-22	1.7	0
2012-03-22	0.0	0
2011-03-22	0.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 20 to Dec 30	Missing Count
2021-12-30	0.3	0
2020-12-30	0.1	0
2019-12-30	0.0	0
2018-12-30	T	0
2017-12-30	1.3	0
2016-12-30	0.0	0
2015-12-30	T	0
2014-12-30	0.0	0
2013-12-30	1.7	0
2012-12-30	0.6	0
2011-12-30	0.0	0

[HeadInTheClouds]

I hope my friends in Michigan enjoy their blizzard. Bastards. 

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And sometimes that happens.   

Yup sometimes the good patterns fail and the bad patterns produce (see February 2018).

 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had better luck within 5 days of St Patricks Day than Christmas recently.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Mar 12 to Mar 22	Missing Count
2021-03-22	T	0
2020-03-22	0.0	0
2019-03-22	0.0	0
2018-03-22	25.0	0
2017-03-22	3.4	0
2016-03-22	2.3	0
2015-03-22	5.6	0
2014-03-22	T	0
2013-03-22	1.7	0
2012-03-22	0.0	0
2011-03-22	0.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 20 to Dec 30	Missing Count
2021-12-30	0.3	0
2020-12-30	0.1	0
2019-12-30	0.0	0
2018-12-30	T	0
2017-12-30	1.3	0
2016-12-30	0.0	0
2015-12-30	T	0
2014-12-30	0.0	0
2013-12-30	1.7	0
2012-12-30	0.6	0
2011-12-30	0.0	0

March is good for Eastern Long Island.  Not so good for urban areas like NYC and Nassau county.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup sometimes the good patterns fail and the bad patterns produce (see February 2018).

 

Yeah but 2018 produced after February ended

That was awesome though.

No word on any SSW occurring anytime soon?

 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

March is good for Eastern Long Island.  Not so good for urban areas like NYC and Nassau county.

 

It's usually better than December due to colder ssts and different wavelengths. 

We can get away with a bad pacific in March

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It's usually better than December due to colder ssts and different wavelengths. 

We can get away with a bad pacific in March

Yes that's the thing-- and it doesn't look like the Pacific is going to be that good going forward.

Besides, even for the brief time it's good it's not helping us lol.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I hope my friends in Michigan enjoy their blizzard. Bastards. 

Hence my being hopeful but not excited when this pattern was being advertised. We also saw ways it could go wrong when the Pacific refused to play ball and here we are. Maybe we can salvage a good January run like many of us last winter.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but 2018 produced after February ended

That was awesome though.

No word on any SSW occurring anytime soon?

 

17/18 was one of my top 5 winters. 70 degrees in February with a 4.5 inch snowstorm mixed in before the epic March. You can't snow in a more hostile environment than that Feb.

I think the METS we're saying historically when we hit -4.0 AO Blocking typically returns 

Looking at the ensembles blocking never leaves! PAC is all over the place.

We are really following 12/13 it seems. That Winter we had 1 snowstorm in the December blocking periods that was considered a basic fail. This year we already had one snowstorm and now failing.

I think Bluewave showed the H5 map from December 2012 and it had that link up to the NAO on the coast like we are experiencing now.

12/13 ended up being solidly above average snowfall wise. Let's see if this winter comes close. We shall see.

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

17/18 was one of my top 5 winters. 70 degrees in February with a 4.5 inch snowstorm mixed in before the epic March. You can't snow in a more hostile environment than that Feb.

I think the METS we're saying historically when we hit -4.0 AO Blocking typically returns 

Looking at the ensembles blocking never leaves! PAC is all over the place.

We are really following 12/13 it seems. That Winter we had 1 snowstorm in the December blocking periods that was considered a basic fail. This year we already had one snowstorm and now failing.

I think Bluewave showed the H5 map from December 2012 and it had that link up to the NAO on the coast like we are experiencing now.

12/13 ended up being solidly above average snowfall wise. Let's see if this winter comes close. We shall see.

 

 

 

I would like to see a farther west track with the February event we had in 2013, although some of that could be down to random variations.

We had rain for around 50% of that February 2013 storm and then around 10 inches of snow, which is still good but it feels not so good when people to your east get 30 inches.  That was what I would consider an average winter.  We also had the big storm in November, I would actually say that was my most memorable event that season.

My prediction for this season is around 26-28 inches of snow so that would line up quite well with what we received in 12-13 (approximately-- it might have been a couple inches less than that that winter, I don't remember exactly lol)

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hence my being hopeful but not excited when this pattern was being advertised. We also saw ways it could go wrong when the Pacific refused to play ball and here we are. Maybe we can salvage a good January run like many of us last winter.

Getting a foot or more around January 20th which seems to be normal for us now would fix a lot of these bad memories lol

 

[eduggs]

ULL/PV near Hudson Bay at day 5 is not going to work. We need that in the Canadian Maritimes. Ensembles have been shifting the low heights further NW with time.  Cutter City.

[eduggs]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One of these years it would be nice to see the universe balance itself out with a really bad pattern that is horrible in every respect delivering two historic snowstorms.

The universe owes us that ;-)

 

If we're in a "pattern" - which I argue we are not - then it's a terrible pattern for coastal plain snow.