HeadInTheClouds Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good. I can’t think of a time the gfs has ever won when it’s been on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: I can’t think of a time the gfs has ever won when it’s been on its own. Icon trended towards it and the gefs has been steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon trended towards it and the gefs has been steady. Need euro or cmc to look different by 12z tomorrow or this one is over imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: Need euro or cmc to look different by 12z tomorrow or this one is over imo. Too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 15 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The GFS evolution gives me over a foot so I'm rooting for it hard just like I am for Zach Wilson this Sunday although I think that neither is very good. Aimless, clueless, lost. That’s the Jets. Hopefully not GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gefs is awesome Goodnight folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Too early That’s why I love MetsFan. You always hold out hope and I have seen plenty of times over the years when you ended up being right when everyone else gave up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said: That’s why I love MetsFan. You always hold out hope and I have seen plenty of times over the years when you ended up being right when everyone else gave up. . I usually give up near the event but it's way too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Aimless, clueless, lost. That’s the Jets. Hopefully not GFS The Jets are actually good. Wilson is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 45 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to. Honestly, I would take that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Euro is 974mb over Grand Rapids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Only tiny differences between the euro and gfs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Only tiny differences between the euro and gfs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Euro is 974mb over Grand Rapids This is probably the first time in December that we could get a 974 mb Great Lakes cutter following a few days after a -4 AO and +PNA. So my guess is that the warming climate is causing wavelength changes that would have produced a KU event in the past. Just goes to show how past analogs from a colder era don’t work anymore. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is probably the first time in December that we could get a 974 mb Great Lakes cutter following a few days after a -4 AO and +PNA. So my guess is that the warming climate is causing wavelength changes that would have produced a KU event in the past. Just goes to show how past analogs from a colder era don’t work anymore. Brutal. Vortex looks to be moving into Ak at the end of the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gefs being stubborn with a cluster of offshore lows. IDK what happens with this thing. Not crazy about the orientation of this block now. It's changed quite a bit in a couple days. Who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 This is probably the first time in December that we could get a 974 mb Great Lakes cutter following a few days after a -4 AO and +PNA. So my guess is that the warming climate is causing wavelength changes that would have produced a KU event in the past. Just goes to show how past analogs from a colder era don’t work anymore. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is probably the first time in December that we could get a 974 mb Great Lakes cutter following a few days after a -4 AO and +PNA. So my guess is that the warming climate is causing wavelength changes that would have produced a KU event in the past. Just goes to show how past analogs from a colder era don’t work anymore. That's a rather huge and alarming change though-- I pictured climate change as causing more nuanced changes. Then again we are also having major tornado outbreaks in Louisiana in December so that's another huge and alarming change. Do you think if this same pattern occurs in JFM it's much better for us snowfallwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Gefs being stubborn with a cluster of offshore lows. IDK what happens with this thing. Not crazy about the orientation of this block now. It's changed quite a bit in a couple days. Who knows. What caused the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What caused the change? Really hard to say. The models have been trying to figure out what to do with complicated features. In the 2 areas that are most difficult for them. North Pacific and arctic. It's like an honors exam for guidance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: That's a rather huge and alarming change though-- I pictured climate change as causing more nuanced changes. Then again we are also having major tornado outbreaks in Louisiana in December so that's another huge and alarming change. Do you think if this same pattern occurs in JFM it's much better for us snowfallwise? I think it’s the record warm pool in the Western Atlantic causing more ridging there than we used to get. But notice how the day 8-10 forecast can’t detect it. We see it start to show up around day 5-7. So it makes looking at these ensembles beyond a week a low skill proposition. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: I think it’s the record warm pool in the Western Atlantic causing more ridging there than we used to get. But notice how the day 8-10 forecast can’t detect it. We see it start to snow up around day 5-7. So it makes looking at these ensembles beyond a week a low skill proposition. New run Old run That makes sense-- we see the same thing in the summer with higher temperature departures the farther north you go. So maybe patterns that would produce 100+ temps in the past for the coast only produce temps in the mid 90s with higher humidity now because it's getting harder to get a downslope wind? I would have expected last summer to have one or more 100+ degree days here because the summer was so dry-- and rule number 1 to get 100 degree heat here is to have very dry soil which heats up much faster. The sea breeze always comes in sooner or later, the key is having very dry soil to make the temperatures rise so quickly that it gets to 100 or higher before the sea breeze gets here (usually around 2 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Really hard to say. The models have been trying to figure out what to do with complicated features. In the 2 areas that are most difficult for them. North Pacific and arctic. It's like an honors exam for guidance. Not detecting the record warm pool in the Atlantic in the midrange to long range might be the answer. The models seem to lock in on it only when we're within 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: Not detecting the record warm pool in the Atlantic in the midrange to long range might be the answer. The models seem to lock in on it only when we're within 7 days. Could you share an image showing where the warm pool is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Not detecting the record warm pool in the Atlantic in the midrange to long range might be the answer. The models seem to lock in on it only when we're within 7 days. There very well could be a feedback process from that. It's possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you share an image showing where the warm pool is? This is the warmest the NW Atlantic has been during mid-December. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you share an image showing where the warm pool is? It was posted yesterday in this thread so a few pages back. Will have to go looking for it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is the warmest the NW Atlantic has been during mid-December. Thanks, this is the same reason the Maine lobster season is dying out correct? The lobsters are migrating farther north. This also affects our local SST-- they're still in the mid 40s? Although Ch 12 still lists them as between 52-58 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, this is the same reason the Maine lobster season is dying out correct? The lobsters are migrating farther north. This also affects our local SST-- they're still in the mid 40s? Although Ch 12 still lists them as between 52-58 lol The SSTs are still almost 60° south of Nova Scotia where the ridge axis is located. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44150 Water Temperature (WTMP): 59.5 °F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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