MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Icon is drastically different than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Icon is drastically different than 18z Still runs inland. Driving rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still runs inland. Driving rainstorm Shifted way east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Shifted way east though Still not good. This is what the gfs showed at happy hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Still not good. This is what the gfs showed at happy hr How many days out are we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 ICON has the upper level low feature in Ontario at day 5, just a bit too far north. Previous model runs that had east coast snowstorms had a strong antecedent ULL in this region. EC was really flat with this feature, and the CMC actually had a ridge. A stout ULL would force any follow up wave to divert south and possibly delay the negative tilting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How many days out are we ? 5.5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The 0z RGEM has lower heights over the Lakes at the end of its run. This looks improved over 18z and the 12z GEM. I expect the 0z Canadian to be at least a slightly less extreme cutter compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: The 0z RGEM has lower heights over the Lakes at the end of its run. This looks improved over 18z and the 12z GEM. I expect the 0z Canadian to be at least a slightly less extreme cutter compared to 12z. Gfs has major changes for the good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs has major changes for the good Well the follow up wave that ultimately carves out the big trof is noticably weaker as it moves through the Pac NW/intermountain west. That seems slightly good for us. The evolution is also delayed. But the ULL over Ontario looks likely less favorably positioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsonvoid1 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 icon has got to be the worst model out of the globals, what do you guys think? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Less explosive development. Weaker, less sharp trof. That could be good for us if we don't want rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Heavy snow to mix to rain possibly back to snow on the GFS. Weaker trof keeps things wintry. Gonna be hard to avoid rain with a trof axis so far west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 I don’t know what the gfs is doing looks nothing other models or it’s last run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ooof, the CMC looks ugly again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 wow, that second wave really bombs out on the GFS. 955 low west of Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Ooof, the CMC looks ugly again. Sometimes it overamps storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 00z CMC very similar to 12z. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Not good that cmc held serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Gfs would give us a few inches followed by heavy rain with snow on the back side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Heavy snow to mix to rain possibly back to snow on the GFS. Weaker trof keeps things wintry. Gonna be hard to avoid rain with a trof axis so far west. Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Use ensemble means with caution. There are clusters broadly representing the extremes depicted in the recent op global runs. Clearly there is heightened sensitivity to a few key features that could shift this outcome significantly. Averaging these extreme camps creates a muted average unlikely to portend the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sometimes it overamps storms That feels true in memory. I know all models occasionally do that and who knows if the CMC is more guilty. But I sure wish the CMC was on our side instead of the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: Ooof, the CMC looks ugly again. CMC has the strongest arctic front we've seen in years. From 60+ to single digits in 12-18hrs along with 50-60+ gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: CMC has the strongest arctic front we've seen in years. From 60+ to single digits in 12-18hrs along with 50-60+ gusts That probably won’t happen. It usually moderates especially near the coast as we get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to. It's certainly not a classic blizzard, but it would be widespread snowfall across the east coast. Much colder in situ air and potentially two bouts of moderate-heavy snow. I'd sign on right now if I could. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Seems very sloppy/disjointed. The early digging trough brings up lots of warm air on the east side and it seems like some kind of primary running up the Apps helps ruin it. An offshore low does congeal eventually but the airmass is ruined by the early digging trough and retreating high. Same lousy outcome here as today pretty much-there would be a strong easterly wind off the ocean. At least the preceding airmass is cold enough that there would be some snow to start but it would be a fast change to rain on the coast/city. Not saying this will happen but that's what this run verbatim would lead to. I think at this point you’d have to take the gfs solution and run with it. Heavy burst of snow to rain back to snow. Way preferable to the more likely outcome of another windswept rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: That probably won’t happen. It usually moderates especially near the coast as we get closer to the event. Not if that solution verifies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I think at this point you’d have to take the gfs solution and run with it. Heavy burst of snow to rain back to snow. Way preferable to the more likely outcome of another windswept rainstorm. I doubt it happens like that with this weird multiple centers evolution. That usually happens when the model can't figure out where to put the main center under the strong dynamics/lift advancing NE. What I want to see is it digging a little later/further east. If we have a strong neutral tilted trough over the MS Valley we're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 Ukie is a big cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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